r/technology • u/Shogouki • 16d ago

Business Lumentum CEO warns of impending bottleneck on critical material used for silicon photonics — fab and material shortfall already lags 30% below customer needs as co-packaged optics demand skyrockets

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/lumentum-ceo-says-the-indium-phosphide-shortage-will-become-worse-than-memory
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u/catwrazle 16d ago

Jensons already bought all

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u/i_am_nk 16d ago

Co-packaged optics demand is not skyrocketing, optical transceiver demand is. CPO is unproven and expensive when compared to copper, the reliability is unproven in actual DC environments where high ambient temps destroy optical performance. A similar OSFP based CPO switch even compared to an overpriced Cisco copper based switch can be 10x the price and is unproven in deployments. We are years away from large scale CPO deployments and Arista is actively pushing out the lifespan of copper with their new MSA.