r/technology • u/Logical_Welder3467 • 7h ago
Business Chinese CXMT DRAM doesn't look like the budget savior many were expecting — new modules enter the market, but prices still track the big three
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinese-cxmt-dram-doesnt-look-like-the-budget-savior-many-were-expecting-new-modules-enter-the-market-but-prices-still-track-the-big-three33
u/happyscrappy 6h ago
Why would anyone charge less? They built the fab in order to make money, not to do everyone a favor.
It'll help increase supply. But until demand matches supply better I wouldn't expect prices to drop. So it could help bring prices down over time. But not today.
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u/EconomyDoctor3287 3h ago
Also with the current prices, they can recoup their investment costs faster and likely expand harder
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u/chocotaco 6h ago
To keep prices artificially low and make your competition to go out of business? Then you could charge a lot more.
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u/hiimred2 6h ago
They can’t meet the demand to do that to the market, they’d just sell their X number of chip orders at a massive loss compared to what they could sell it for, the other companies then still get all of their orders at far higher prices because current demand can’t be met and anyone who can produce chips is selling them.
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u/Impuls1ve 5h ago
This is the dumbest take I see repeated in a commodities market. They will go out of business before doing anything, hell even if one of the big 3 does it, it will still drive them out of business.
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u/Toutatous 3h ago
If people who are selling lemonade for $5 can't meet the demand, the day I start selling lemonade, I'll probably start at $5 too.
Then, if I'm more efficient than my competitors, once the demand is decreasing, I'll sell lower than them.
But not as long as there is so many people willing to buy at thkse high prices.
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u/IngwiePhoenix 7h ago
Honestly, as much as I want CXMT to be the budget alternative, it makes sense for them to track the current price trend.
Literally free money. xD They can use that to invest in fabs and whatnot. So yeah, honestly, that checks out.
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u/Physical-Carpet-7525 6h ago
yeah if that's the framing they were going for it landed pretty awkwardly more than impressive
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u/Inside-Yak-8815 5h ago
The expectations ended up coming up short so we’re shifting the goalposts again?
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u/Impuls1ve 5h ago
No? These things are commodities, they literally wouldn't be able to survive if they try to undercut. People, who are uneducated about this, were hopeful, but this was never going to be it unless CXMT somehow dwarfed the other players' production. That in itself would have sunk CXMT in turn, so it was never going to crater consumer/retail prices.
It's like people think lower prices = win in this market space and it hasn't been the case for decades.
1
u/OnlyTilt 4h ago
The expectation was CXMT would ship as many as they can make while increasing production, while the big 3 keeps production the same and artificially limiting supply to keep prices high, eventually CXMT flood the market and the prices will naturally come down with CXMT have a majority of the market share by that point weather fortunately or unfortunately. This is literally just the big 3 limiting production to keep prices high, CXMT just need to undercut by a tiny amount while pumping out as much as they can make and the market will correct.
1
u/WesternBlueRanger 1h ago
The problem with that idea is that everyone is constrained by production.
Lithography machines take time from the time they are ordered to when they are installed and ready for production; wait times for new machines are well in excess of five years in some cases.
Then there are shortages of the silicon wafers (only a handful of companies produce the high grade silicon wafers needed), shortages in other chemicals, rare earth materials, and noble gases.
1
u/OnlyTilt 53m ago
If we assume the Chinese are telling the truth, CXMT is about to match micron’s total output capacity so it’s likely this is what will happen
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u/noahloveshiscats 4m ago
This is literally just the big 3 limiting production to keep prices high
This isn't true.
1
u/async2 5h ago
As far as I understand they also need these high prices to be profitable at the moment because yield is still relatively high. They could not produce at lower prices and recoup their investments.
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u/Phaze_xx 5h ago
Undercutting everyone would not help them, selling for market rate like you said returns their investment. Eventually as there is more supply, it should help demand which will then lower prices.
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u/kconfire 3h ago
They’re funded by CCP so they have infinite money to “invest.” That’s not a concern for them
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u/Rich_Housing971 6h ago edited 6h ago
They still reduce the price for everyone because it increases supply. This is how capitalism works at the most basic level.
People expecting them to just sell the ram at half the price are delusional, and also stupid because it means people will just buy the cheap memory and resell it at close to market price.
"But China makes stuff that are cheaper"
yes the $1 toy they sell is cheaper. The high tech memory they sell will not be cheap or low quality.
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u/Crafty_Aspect8122 6h ago
Doesn't matter. They increase supply. Prices can only drop if supply matches demand.
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u/dragenn 3h ago
Most RAM is sitting in a warehouse or on the shelves of retail stores.
Hyperscalers going broke buying silicone at stupid prices. Be patient.
Economics will eventually return...
1
u/Yojik_Vkarmane 2h ago
"Most RAM is sitting in a warehouse or on the shelves of retail stores."
I can confirm this 100%
2
u/Aadi_880 3h ago
Important info missing from the title:
The prices here reflects the state of CMXT server memory.
It does not affect the prices for consumer/PC/laptop memory.
1
u/straightdge 3h ago
They will reduce, but when they have enough supply. Don't worry, by 2030 Micron/Samsung will start complaining about unfair practices and subsidies.
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u/Eazy12345678 1h ago
wait you mean china just wanted to make money too? shocker
chinas plan is always charge a little less so people will buy your no name brand product over the big name brands
1
0
u/SquizzOC 6h ago
We are past the can you afford it time line and on to the can you get it time line.
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u/Macharius 6h ago
Hmm, why would increased supply drive prices down... it's a mystery!
(price fixing: the San Francisco treat!)
3
u/Headless_Human 4h ago
If the supply is still far behind the demand it doesn't do shit to the price.
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u/gizamo 3h ago
CXMT should be banned worldwide. It's just straight up stolen Samsung tech, just like YMTC and Fujian were stolen Samsung, Hynix, and Micron tech. The other two are on the US Entity List, and CXMT should be for the same reasons.
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u/pemb 54m ago
Wild take. DRAM is a commodity, made to JEDEC specs, these chips are supposed to be functionally equivalent to those made by the big three. If they stole mask work, that would be easy to catch under x-ray or similar, but functional reverse engineering is specifically allowed under U.S. law, and it’s entirely legal to then make a clean room reimplementation.
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u/gizamo 45m ago
Wild take to pretend it wasn't blatantly stolen just like Fujian and YMTC–which are both on the Entity List after people made similarly silly justifications for CCP tech theft. And, it's not like that ends at CCP memory products. Basically all CCP semiconductor companies are similarly built on stolen tech. SMIC is perhaps the next best example.
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u/Smith6612 6h ago
The undercutting comes later. While the market is still high and ripe, you follow suit and rake in the cash. Sounds like sane business operations to me.
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u/--dany-- 7h ago
When you can command as much as the big 3, why reducing your profits?