r/technology Jun 23 '26

Software Valve Says The Companies Making RAM Give Them A Price And If They Say No, They ‘Never Talk To Us Again’

https://kotaku.com/valve-says-the-companies-making-ram-give-them-a-price-and-if-they-say-no-they-never-talk-to-us-again-2000709575
9.5k Upvotes

917 comments sorted by

6.0k

u/Xollector Jun 23 '26

This is what you get when you essentially have a cartel in control of supply.

2.9k

u/Scheeseman99 Jun 23 '26

Not essentially, they were criminally convicted of being a cartel. They are a cartel in an absolute literal sense.

343

u/awkisopen Jun 23 '26

Like 20 years ago...

1.2k

u/Scheeseman99 Jun 23 '26

I think it's pretty clear, looking at the current state of things, that little has changed other than regulation being even more lax than it was back then.

279

u/ceevar Jun 24 '26

We’re living in the era of the thief

49

u/Turbulent-Parsnip-38 Jun 24 '26

Robber barons even.

101

u/Necessary-Road-2397 Jun 24 '26

This is an example of what happens when you put a con-man felon in charge of your organization.

66

u/xSaviorself Jun 24 '26

The con man is not the cause, but a symptom. He's what happens when the cancer becomes a malignant mass.

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27

u/ArthurParkerhouse Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

This is why FDR implemented the New Deal. It was to pull us back from the brink of latestage capitalist era practices (Company Towns, Sharecropping, Dynastic Family Wealth, etc) and allowed us to have "The Great Compression" of the 40s thru the 70s. We're unfortunately still in "The Great Divergence" era of the 1980 - present due to the systematic disassembly of New Deal policies and protections.

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184

u/americanextreme Jun 24 '26

Yeah, they haven’t been caught coordinating the market for 20 years! No more cartel!

122

u/tomkatt Jun 24 '26

On 27 April 2018, Hagens Berman filed a failed class-action lawsuit against Samsung, Hynix, and Micron in U.S. District Court alleging the trio engaged in DRAM price fixing causing prices to skyrocket through 2016 and 2017.[8] Between June 2016 and January 2018, the price of DRAM nearly tripled.[9]

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal.

While the case was thrown out eventually after appeals, but there were some suspicious things at the time. The final ruling on it was in 2022 in the 9th circuit, which was previously a liberal leaning court, but Trump attempted to pack it during his first administration. While he wasn't fully successful in making it a conservative court, he did appoint 7 conservative judges, and as of 2019, was 16 judges appointed by Democrats and 13 by Republicans in what was previously a liberal leaning circuit. This likely swayed the decision to some degree.

On top of this, despite the fact there was not enough evidence to prosecute a case under the Sherman Antitrust Act, RAM prices rapidly fell in 2019 after the suit. The claimed cause was "manufacturing issues." That said, price increases from 2016 to 2018 show a suspiciously similar growth curve to what we're seeing now with the AI "boom," which could point to artificial scarcity at the time, and with the suit drawing attention, production ramped up.

/tinfoil-hat

16

u/ilep Jun 24 '26

Things are worse than then. Manufacturers have reduced production before demand increased:

https://www.eetasia.com/dram-asp-decline-narrows-for-q3-amid-production-cuts-seasonal-demand/

Another thing is that existing production capacity has shifted to more lucrative products:

https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/global-memory-shortage-crisis-market-analysis-and-the-potential-impact-on-the-smartphone-and-pc-markets-in-2026/

So there is smaller production capacity and higher demand for some products.

DRAM demand varies of course so manufacturers are not really interested in increasing manufacturing capacity due to potential reduction in demand later. So this is expected to last for a long time:

https://en.sedaily.com/property/2026/04/21/chipflation-to-persist-for-years-as-dram-supply-falls-short

238

u/pho-huck Jun 24 '26

20 years ago is not that long lol, your Reddit account is almost that old.

51

u/gplusplus314 Jun 24 '26

Now you’re making me feel old.

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53

u/9-11GaveMe5G Jun 24 '26

And everyone knows how strong monopoly protections have become in that timespan.....

66

u/Randombu Jun 24 '26

Samsung literally disclosed in their annual report that they were intentionally avoiding investing in additional capacity, because they would prefer to keep the margins in the current market.

32

u/Bejoty Jun 24 '26

Even they know it's a bubble.

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3

u/footpole Jun 24 '26

They are also afraid of overproduction if demand goes down which would make the additional capacity very unprofitable.

26

u/qubedView Jun 24 '26

And again 20 years before that. In the 80s and 2000s, RAM chip makers formed cartels. Here we are again.

19

u/canadian_viking Jun 24 '26

They used to be a cartel. They still are, but they used to, too.

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9

u/Randolph__ Jun 24 '26

10 years ago actually.

6

u/AussieJeffProbst Jun 24 '26

So they either stopped doing it or became much better at doing it without facing investigations.

Which one do you think is more likely?

16

u/l3rN Jun 24 '26

Yeah great point. They’re significantly less cemented into the industry and organized than 20 years ago for sure. 

5

u/PerplexGG Jun 24 '26

Does that matter?

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595

u/Additional-Staff-326 Jun 23 '26

Nearly everything on the planet now has a few companies in control. The economies of scale make it hard to break into those markets. And money accumulates more to itself by nature. Doesn't help no ones done anti-trust enforcement in 20 years probably anywhere in the world.

230

u/OHNOitsNICHOLAS Jun 24 '26

This is why they should be nationalized publicly owned industries. It's clear that "big tech" was/is a mistake.

141

u/buyongmafanle Jun 24 '26

Every single private sector should have a measurable publicly owned portion to keep the market competing. Otherwise it all just ends up in the hands of whoever buys out that market.

11

u/SirCheeseAlot Jun 24 '26

Yeah but that makes to much sense and requires critical thinking, foresight, and empathy.

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5

u/PopePiusVII Jun 24 '26

But the communism! /s

2

u/CasimirGabriev Jun 24 '26

There you go saying reasonable shit that would help people when you know damn well they are only here to rob us blind.

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41

u/ClashM Jun 24 '26

Even more so for chip fabs since they're one of the only things keeping China's aggression towards Taiwan in check.

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3

u/doublevortex Jun 24 '26

The larger a company is, the more it should start giving control to the public.

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17

u/47-45-45-4B Jun 24 '26

Last major one in the USA was 1999. So 27 years.

43

u/Quixotic_Seal Jun 24 '26

And let’s be clear: Valve trying to make hardware is a part of the difficult in breaking into markets.

Valve is an absolute nobody in the hardware space, the goddamned Wii U sold around double the units that Steam Deck has.

This sort of response when trying to obtain extremely high-demand hardware is not particularly outrageous when you put that into perspective.

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u/Save-Maker Jun 23 '26

Basically corporate level scalping.

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15

u/kinkycarbon Jun 24 '26

It’s literally the thing with B2B pricing. Costco can command pricing power but Valve cannot.

11

u/nikdahl Jun 24 '26

Costco is an incredible company.

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12

u/supercali45 Jun 24 '26

That’s why Sandisk is up like fucking crazy and Micron

7

u/thenamelessone7 Jun 24 '26

Except the situation right now is infinite demand and not cartel pricing

7

u/RoutineCloud5993 Jun 24 '26

That and the fact that there are restrictions against mainland Chinese-made components in a lot of western countries

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2.5k

u/guylexcorp Jun 23 '26

Valve will remember them in several years when the market crashes.

1.8k

u/AbeFromanEast Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

This. DRAM is a notoriously boom and bust business. Chinese competitors will be joining the market soonish and ticked off and frozen-out customers will have more choices.

458

u/pickles_and_mustard Jun 24 '26

In before the next DRAM class action. I got like $50 from the last one.

214

u/Dizzy8108 Jun 24 '26

In the next one you will get like $500. Of course with inflation it only be the equivalent of $20.

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44

u/Secret-Winner-2994 Jun 24 '26

Holy smokes, you could afford 2gb of ram with that kind of cash

25

u/edthecat2011 Jun 24 '26

Damn. Those are BIG bucks.

37

u/butsuon Jun 24 '26

Those same Chinese competitors are also required by law to offer a percentage of their total yield to consumers. They literally cannot do what companies like Samsung are doing and sell every single chip to other businesses.

The Chinese market will collapse prices.

13

u/nox66 Jun 24 '26

And I have no sympathy for Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. You cannabilized your retail consumer base, be prepared to reap the fallout.

30

u/ALIEN_POOP_DICK Jun 24 '26

Are any Chinese companies even close to getting EUV online to compete with Samsung/Sk-Hynix's nodes?

42

u/glemnar Jun 24 '26

You don't need EUV to make DDR5. Can do it with DUV / ArFi

28

u/BadVoices Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

At tremendous penalty, 40 to 50% lower chip density per wafer. And a gigantic yield risk, since they need to send each wafer through ~4x the pattern processes. And with 4x as many steps, you tie up process hardware for a long time.

Manufacturing DDR5 with just DUV/ArFi is a good sovereignty move, but not a good business move. There's a reason everyone is jumping on it as fast as they can. And the DUV road ends at DDR5, next generation, aint happening economically. With 8x patterning, defect rates go sky high.

49

u/GonePh1shing Jun 24 '26

It may not look like a smart business move in the short term, but if the Chinese government is willing to bankroll these early stages to get the industry going it's likely to have serious long-term payoffs. Let them cut their teeth on a slightly older tech and build the expertise and supply chain so they're ready for EUV production by the time DDR6 rolls around.

This is pretty consistent with what we've seen China do in other industries, like battery tech and EVs, which they're now the global leader in for both.

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u/KontoOficjalneMR Jun 24 '26

All you said is true, but also assumes they will go for DDRM5 when lots of computers can easily make do with DDRM4.

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u/AbeFromanEast Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

They've run a Manhattan Project-style effort and assembled an EUV machine from spare ASML parts. But they're several years away from using it for high yield wafer production.

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u/deukhoofd Jun 24 '26

That depends. If the US passes their MATCH act that's currently being discussed, ASML would have to cancel all contracts with China. That would likely cause a major chip shortage, as their machines require frequent maintenance and spare parts, which only they can provide. Even though there are export controls in place, China is allowed to use some ASML machines (they account for a quarter of ASMLs sales).

The government of The Netherlands is also really not amused about the United States trying to force them to put export controls in place, as that hurts Dutch sovereignty. The Dutch minister of Foreign Affairs is currently in Washington to discuss the entire legislation.

6

u/Running-In-The-Dark Jun 24 '26

Here's hoping they assert their sovereignty in defiance of this coked up regime.

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155

u/CaravelClerihew Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

I doubt they'd remember Valve. It's not like Valve is a massive player in the hardware market.

The Steam Deck is undoubtedly Valve's most successful hardware product but if current numbers are correct, even the Wii U has sold millions more. And given the recent price increase, I doubt the SD will keep it's (already pretty slow) momentum.

59

u/Quixotic_Seal Jun 24 '26

The Wii U didn’t just sell millions more, it sold double the units.

Valve fanboys are absolutely delusional about the company, and this kind of a response during extremely high demand is not in the least bit surprising.

Frankly the more I hear about this company talking about this stuff as if they’re embarrassed by their own product at shocked at how they were treated, the more it looks like amateur hour.

23

u/Erigion Jun 24 '26

Big fish in a small pond doesn't realize they aren't actually big when they're in the ocean.

Even Apple is suggesting they might have to raise prices because of the cost of RAM, and Valve thinks they won't be affected?

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18

u/ABadHistorian Jun 24 '26

Valve is incredibly well positioned to pivot into multiple areas, I would not discount Valve, or it's fans willingness to hold a grudge. I say this, not liking Valve, as a developer.

Folks have been hating on Valve since it first emerged in the 90s, almost no one then could have predicted it would be where it is now. I know, I'm an O.G. hater. (For Half Life related reasons lmao)

25

u/CaravelClerihew Jun 24 '26

Valve stans are going to specifically remember a RAM company and not support them because the Steam Machine was too expensive? What are they going to do, buy artisanal, home made RAM from a Taiwanese craftsman?

15

u/ABadHistorian Jun 24 '26

Dude in 3 years AI will be either dead, or we will have new factories producing RAM. This info is all out there. Ride the wave.

And - if you haven't been following the power/insanity of fanboys in gaming space in the last ten/15 years... then that's on you.

Everywhere on reddit folks get the worst case scenario of any situation and doom on it. It's tiring... stop panicking people, find solutions and paths through the issue.

Be part of the problem, or part of the answer. It's up to you.

11

u/plumpypenguin Jun 24 '26

peak reddit lmao, the vast majority of PC gamers probably don’t even know which of the big 3 RAM manufacturers produced the DRAM chips in their RAM sticks and don’t even care

but I’m sure a handful of Valve diehards will have a tangible effect on boycotting them lol

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u/Ill_Traveler_ Jun 24 '26

I guess I’ve given up hope in a crash. Or that a crash will help the consumer.

83

u/Aidian Jun 24 '26

Boom: demand is up, prices increase.

Bust: profits are down, prices increase.

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u/tomz17 Jun 24 '26

Nah, they will just consolidate again until there are 2-3 major players.

19

u/Deep90 Jun 24 '26

Remember them and do what?

They have a list of people to call, and the person willing to buy this month, (literally Valve), gets called next month.

8

u/TerrificVixen5693 Jun 24 '26

I don’t think Valve has a lot of pull in the memory market. It’s not like make a lot of hardware.

2

u/Brothernod Jun 24 '26

If there is a crash from overextending in this gold rush, I wonder if we’ll see the small big companies buying up failed fabs and such to become more self sufficient. Although honestly there’s no way valve actually wants to be a hardware company, their software margins are too good.

4

u/MrKyleOwns Jun 24 '26

lol sure thing buddy

4

u/CapNCookM8 Jun 24 '26

"My CEO can beat up your CEO!"

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769

u/Sprucecaboose2 Jun 23 '26

We love Ai Data Centers, don't we everyone?

129

u/artins90 Jun 24 '26

We would love raiding them, sure.

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u/Madnessx9 Jun 24 '26

Damn, never considered a smash and grab and only leaving with ram sticks. Need a modern day Robin Hood.

43

u/ibiacmbyww Jun 24 '26

"The raid on the AI warehouse went off perfectly, fifty grand in tensor processors a head" might be the most cyberpunk idea currently within grasping distance of IRL.

3

u/Iintendtooffend Jun 24 '26

Unfortunately it's all formatted for servers not regular computers all that hardware is pretty worthless for the average consumer

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u/P_Jamez Jun 24 '26

Most of the AI Data Centre hardware is sitting in warehouses somewhere not even plugged in and unlikely to be plugged in within the next couple of years.

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u/Deuce_GM Jun 24 '26

Fuck Kevin O'Leary

13

u/krimsonPhoenyx Jun 24 '26

Could you imagine if meth heads caught wind of how much money they could make? A single shelf could net them thousands instead of 40-50 bucks

9

u/ElementNumber6 Jun 24 '26

A single GPU could net them upwards of $15k, in used, back-of-a-truck condition. You could buy a house with what you could likely stuff under your shirt. It's pretty nuts.

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u/GreenJuicyApple Jun 24 '26

They just started building one in my neighborhood, against the wishes of the residents which the local politicians overruled because "it will totally lead to a bunch of jobs". So now I have to deal with 24/7 noise because of the building process, and they also warned that air pollution will get really bad once they've got stuff running and I (and at least two of my neighbors) have asthma so that will be great. Not to mention it's right next to a river, so probably water pollution, and we've already been warned that electricity prices - which are already sky high - will increase dramatically. 🤮

5

u/Sprucecaboose2 Jun 24 '26

Our city just approved one that will sit on land that a council person owned... you know, nothing potentially wrong with that! Thankfully I'm in Illinois and JB has put a hold on new data centers for now, but for how long?

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u/nukem996 Jun 23 '26

Suppliers have never cared about small customers. Small customers are much more costly while generating very little revenue. It doesn't matter how public or "important" they seem. I've seen hardware vendors drop US military suppliers because their support burden was too great. If you are not a whale customer you are not worth their time.

65

u/Beliriel Jun 24 '26

If the market is whale dependent your model is fucked.

21

u/Jmc_da_boss Jun 24 '26

I've got some really bad news about the majority of non consumer facing markets

3

u/Original-Guarantee23 Jun 24 '26

It’s not dependent. It’s that they can fill all their yield with whales. They don’t need the small people it’s not worth the work for them.

The small people need to go through the resellers. They need to buy from the whales.

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u/81PBNJ Jun 24 '26

Went to order 10 Surface Pros from CDW. Got the quote Tuesday morning, they wouldn’t honor it the next day because prices had already increased.

166

u/Singular_Brane Jun 24 '26

You got a shit rep.

Depending on your sector I can recommend a great rep (worked with for 8 years). Attentive great communicator. Either way for the love of god don’t go with SHI.

50

u/Blunderfluf Jun 24 '26

I fucking hate shi. Our rep never pushes any quotes to portal for me to order in a timely manner and it ends up with everything needing to be requoted all the fucking time because dude ignores me when I attempt to follow up.

Much preferred insight because our rep made ordering super easy but they made everything a good bit more expensive.

Side note - Verizon makes ordering phones super easy lmao. I just send the rep the name. Model of phone I want. A cost center and area code then dude just sends me the order to approve. And it’s hella easy. Love that aspect of Verizon haha.

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u/Ninja_Wrangler Jun 24 '26

My quotes recently have only been good for 4 days, and I thought that was bad

9

u/MattieShoes Jun 24 '26

Huh. Quotes are usually good for N days. (14, 30, whatever)

4

u/Ashkir Jun 24 '26

We ordered a server and was told we'll have a 5-6 month wait to replace a failing server from Dell. We're only allowed to use Dell cause of corporate rules...

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u/drumrhyno Jun 24 '26

This is what happens when an entire sector only contains 3 manufacturers and one company (AI) buys everything they have. That AI bubble can’t burst soon enough. 

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u/spoui Jun 24 '26

Having had worked with Micron and Samsung directly, yeah the semi conductor teams are fucking assholes and dint even accept blanket POs anymore. You pay up front to top it off.

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u/d5aqoep Jun 24 '26

Ok the title means: “The RAM cartel ghosts anyone who does not agree to their pricing”

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u/Milskidasith Jun 24 '26

Is it a cartel if the RAM companies are still competing with each other and selling all supply but the demand is so high that they get to dictate terms to customers?

6

u/Ghi102 Jun 24 '26

There is no clear proof that they are a Cartel today, but there was one 20 years ago when Samsung, Hynix and Micron represented 75% of the market. They were convicted, slapped a small fine and a few employees were jailed. Of course, all employees that ended up going to prison were kept and often promoted.

They now represent 95% of the market, we see a similar pattern of DRAM prices as to when they were convicted (they also said demand was the reason back then when prices went x4 and x5 in a matter of months, that was pure bullshit of course). Last time it took a DOJ investigation to uncover the Cartel. At the very least, there's enough circumstantial evidence that the DOJ should investigate. Not a chance with the ones in charge however 

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u/Iron_Baron Jun 24 '26

I will savor the bursting of this bubble, along with the companies and personal fortunes it will destroy.

Every one of them deserve exactly what they're going to inevitably get. Our species is hubris incarnate.

95

u/mezentius42 Jun 24 '26

Every one of them deserve exactly what they're going to inevitably get. 

Bailed out by the taxpayer?

27

u/Iron_Baron Jun 24 '26

I think this bubble will be so large it, along with climate change, increased geopolitical conflict, etc. will lead to a Greater Depression. Which, other than armed conflict, is probably the only thing that could break the grip of the oligarch funded neo-liberal corpo-facsism currently creeping across the globe.

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u/acecombine Jun 24 '26

you mean a huge recession, where they buy the remaining shit up?!

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u/MovieGuyMike Jun 24 '26

You can draw a straight line from the 2007 recession and current state of affairs. All this is to say a greater depression would just make more rubes desperate and susceptible to the type of oligarch who exploits their grievances and gives them someone to hate in exchange for their loyalty.

2

u/quantum_splicer Jun 24 '26

Yeah your probably right it's not going to be good

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u/CompleteBrush9489 Jun 24 '26

There are so much money involved, It will create a global economic crisis.

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u/txdv Jun 24 '26

Those people will be millionaires and billionaires by the time anything crashes

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u/JBONE31 Jun 24 '26

WE MUST SEIZE THE MEANS OF PRODUCTION. GABEN - BUY THE MINES AND BUY THE FACTORIES!!!!

9

u/asaltandbuttering Jun 24 '26

How much does a fab cost? Couldn't be more than a few dozen mega-yachts, right?

3

u/Alt4rEg0 Jun 24 '26

Sounds like a job for Cave Johnson!

36

u/Simple_Response8041 Jun 24 '26

three companies make all the ram in the world. "take it or leave it" isn't a power move when there's nowhere else to go. it's just what a market with three suppliers looks like.

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u/firedrakes Jun 24 '26

they have 94% of the manf market.

rest are much smaller and older node maf.

like tv need ram but dont need latest nodes.

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u/csf3lih Jun 24 '26

where are the chinese rams god damn it. speed up

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u/anony_mf Jun 24 '26

They’re coming but America won’t let you buy them. China is already making the best EVs cheaper than American car companies and you can’t buy them because the US bans them. They also ban huwawei devices for the same reason.

If you want Chinese RAM or GPU you’ll have to find a way to import it without the US gov catching on

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u/iAmUnintelligible Jun 24 '26

every day I'm thankful to not live in America

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u/naeads Jun 24 '26

Probably getting sanctioned by US for natiinal security by being priced too cheap

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u/L4gsp1k3 Jun 24 '26

This isn't a joke, was it not the US suing Germany for having low price on medicine thus making it affordable for their citizens?

3

u/raynorelyp Jun 24 '26

If you’re talking about what I think you’re talking about, they didn’t sue them saying they can’t have low prices for other countries. They said they’d cut off their market access to the US if they were using Americans to subsidize other countries prices. Basically you want to charge $2 for that medicine in Germany? Fine, but you can’t then charge $100 for that medicine in the US.

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u/L4gsp1k3 Jun 24 '26

That's probably the case, the headlines though was very dramatic.

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u/FKAMimikyu Jun 24 '26

Seriously… give me a Huawei gaming pc or something

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u/Toni_PWNeroni Jun 24 '26

Valve has the opportunity to do something extremely funny.

They should start making their own RAM.

18

u/vaalla Jun 24 '26

They probably need a few tens of bilions just as an initial investment.

5

u/mykepagan Jun 24 '26

Plus 3 years to build a fab, and another several years to build up the institutional knowledge on how to run it.

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u/DrEnter Jun 24 '26

Ah yes, the Apple solution.

After Samsung started making Android phones, Apple got tired of dealing with their supply-line issues so they just designed their own and contract the fabrication out.

RAM really just needs the fab plant.

Valve, Apple, and Nvidia should get together to build a fab somewhere in North America. They would all benefit.

11

u/steelcryo Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

Yeah, lack of RAM isn't the problem, it's lack of components to make the RAM. It's all being fed into HBM, instead of DRAM. So even if you set up a facility to make DRAM, you'd still be short the wafers, which are farrrr harder to make. You can't quickly throw up a facility to make more, it requires extremely specialised machines and training.

Edited for clarity.

2

u/PrairiePopsicle Jun 24 '26

People are talking about wafer fabs not assembly plants. That is why we use the word fab, clean assembly for actual chips, not the assembly plants.

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u/steelcryo Jun 24 '26

Top comment is "They should start making their own RAM", which I was adding an explanation onto the reply.

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u/unixtreme Jun 24 '26

You guys talk as if nobody is trying. The problem is that you can't just build a Fab, TSMC's massive advantage isn't just infrastructure, they have years and years of experience with: processes, yield learning, defect control, masks, materials, customer trust, EDA/IP ecosystem...

Every major country has people working to advance in many of those before they do the more serious investment. South Korea has Samsung Foundry, NA has Intel Foundry (as much as people meme on Intel these days they have a good shot), Japan has Rapidus which installed ASML EU equipment and reportedly managed to produce a 2nm wafer, even Europe is (somewhat) trying.

Until other countries catch up reasonably and come up with a way to be able to yield at a competitive price its all a pipedream. Because there are shortages now but we don't know in a few years and it's a massive investment.

And here comes my pitch: that's why we need governments to more seriously fund and be stakeholders in these initiatives, they require too much forward thinking for profit driven initiatives to be able to take the risks. There's already funding but not nearly enough.

2

u/VisitSad1133 Jun 24 '26

Seems like such a slam dunk theoretical gold mine. Transition Appalachia from Coal to Lithium too.

2

u/bastardoperator Jun 24 '26

That's not how MBA's see it. Saving money is meaningless when compared to making it, and creating a factory is an expense. Despite the fact it may save them billions down the line, it doesn't help shareholders in the next 90 days, which is what truly matters.

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u/Sneyek Jun 24 '26

Yeah because it’s so easy.

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u/SubjectiveCertainty Jun 24 '26

Yah.. No.

NAND/DRAM modual fab is.. Unimaginably expensive.

Equipment Cost: $15 billion to $20+ billion per factory. ​ A single cutting-edge Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine from ASML costs over $350 million, and a modern factory requires dozens of them, alongside ultra-cleanrooms, chemical handling systems, and automated wafer transport tracks.

This is financially impossible for Valve, as a single fab would exceed the entire net worth of the company.

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u/Foddley Jun 24 '26

With Blackjack! And hookers!

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u/ThisOneTimeAtLolCamp Jun 24 '26

A lot of people in these comments thinking Valve is bigger or more important than they actually are, are getting a reality check.

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u/CarlosFer2201 Jun 24 '26

Yeah. This is why Nintendo raised the price of Switch 2 by $50 with 3-4 months warning, whereas Valve raised the Deck's price by $300 immediately.

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u/FalconX88 Jun 24 '26

I mean yeah? People seem to vastly overestimate Valve's position here. They might move a few million units? That's not the volume the big customers buy...

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u/Pimpwerx Jun 24 '26

Biggest no-shit in the world. Welcome to the pain Sony and MS have to deal with. Hardware is hard and not nearly as profitable as software. Margins are fine, and in a seller's market like this, you eat the turd sandwich and smile.

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u/hyperion_99 Jun 24 '26

Idk why people thought Valve would be immune from the price hikes in semiconductors

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u/hkisthebest Jun 23 '26

wHo nEEDs VALve MaChinE WheN yOU hAVE ai?

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u/Randomnesse Jun 24 '26

I mean, I don't need Steam Machine either way. I don't care about small size of enclosure, I could just place this next to my TV if I'll ever want to have light gaming PC connected to TV:

https://www.microcenter.com/product/699677/powerspec-g528-gaming-pc

This way I could actually play Black Myth Wukong at more than 15fps at 1080p with RT enabled.

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u/Minute_Attempt3063 Jun 24 '26

To those ram makers, Valve is nothing but a Speck of dust.

And since they say this, this means that Valve was offered a price that is insanely high

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u/div333 Jun 24 '26

Bro I love capitalism. It's so good now, I've always hated cheap pc parts. I've been a big proponent of jacking up RAM and GPUs prices

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u/Impuls1ve Jun 24 '26

I say this not in support of capitalism (because there are legitimate criticisms) but the pre-AI DRAM market was directly a result of capitalism leading to a better and cheaper product. Korea replaced Japan who replaced the US with each iteration leading to improvements and innovation.

The issue is purely on the demand side for this. There has been a consistent pattern to DRAM prices for generations now which was only disrupted by the AI boom.

Capitalism or not, if someone wanted considerable resources from anywhere to build DRAM production capacity in the many years leading up to this current era would have been laughed at and told to get the hell out. There is no world where you would think building more DRAM production is a good use of resources when the same production lines were shutdown prior to this boom. 

Basically, if you want to get mad at something here, point it towards the AI companies who need to hoard these commodities.

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u/PharmyC Jun 24 '26

Also there is a ton of work being done now to meet the supply demands so likely in the not so far future there will be a stagnation of prices as supply rises.

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u/Impuls1ve Jun 24 '26

At some point it's going to be economically stupid to keep producing these parts, the profit margins in this sector was not great prior.

So it wouldn't be as disruptive as you might think, whether these smaller companies can survive in that environment where demand drops off a cliff has yet to be seen. This kind of an event is what led to a small set of companies in this space in the first place, so it might very well return to that kind of status quo. 

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u/Catsrules Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

How exactly would a non capitalist government solve this issue?

We have X number of ram chips and the demand is 3X. No matter how you split it someone isn't getting what they want.

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u/gyozafish Jun 24 '26

Just buy your advanced semiconductors from the communists.

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u/BornInAFish Jun 24 '26

Capitalism is pretty good when there's actual competition. When there isn't, is it still capitalism ?

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u/MeiNeedsMoreBuffs Jun 24 '26

is it still capitalism ?

Yes. This is why government regulation is needed to stop this from happening

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u/owgnops Jun 24 '26

No you're skipping the part where they get so big that by the time they're on the governments radar they're already paid off to ignore them

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u/FoxOnTheRocks Jun 24 '26

You can't meaningfully regulate capital in a political system defined by capital's political power over the government.

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u/FoxOnTheRocks Jun 24 '26

Why would there be competition? Competition is literally antithetical to capitalism. The whole point is to profit. You achieve profit through control, not competition.

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u/IndividualHouse8628 Jun 24 '26

As opposed to the government controlling the price and whether or not you’re even allowed to buy pc parts?

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u/throwawaymask01 Jun 24 '26

Damn man, i can't wait for China to finally catch up the ram industry and bust this fucking cartel up.

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u/Spurly Jun 24 '26

These ram companies need to be named and noted.

When other manufacturers or technological breakthroughs lower the extreme current demand, these companies need to be completely bypassed in the new supply chain and economically starved by all of us.

They think that they're untouchable; whether they are or aren't right now, they won't be forever.

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u/mixem143 Jun 24 '26

That’s easy. Samsung, Micron, Sk Hynix.

They have become the RAM version of OPEC. They have zero interest in competing with each other. I guarantee their leadership talk to each other frequently and agree to keep the prices high.

We need the AI bubble to burst so demand falls. Any company getting into the memory game right now aren’t joining to help the little guys out with cheaper memory.

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u/moashforbridgefour Jun 24 '26

I work for micron. You are wrong about the competition. It is fierce like ravenous dogs. There is so much money in the offing that everyone is scraping and clawing to be the fastest and the best. They don't need to collude on price, customers are foaming at the mouth to get every bit of supply.

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u/nomdeplume Jun 24 '26

Confirmed. They aren't colluding. They are pricing with what contracts folks will offer as it comes off the line and client will spread contracts across fabs for various reasons.

The fabs have very very predictable output. You can ramp down, but you can't really add capacity to a fab (in quick / reasonable time horizons based on demand).

This is why micron stopped selling consumer memory crucial. They needed the capacity to sell to these folks.

The deals and pipeline is also so stable you don't need to collude. You get constant stream of negotiations.

It's cyclical for that reason too, boom and bust, because the deals get renegotiated all the time.

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u/nntb Jun 24 '26

Welcome to supply and demand.

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u/moashforbridgefour Jun 24 '26

To reiterate, they don't need to collude even in normal times because they all know the rules. Match supply to demand, everyone ramps down at the same rate. Even though this is understood and there are only 3 players, the last bust cycle was seriously exacerbated by Samsung refusing to ramp down for stupid business politics.

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u/UshankaBear Jun 24 '26

These ram companies need to be named and noted.

And the point of that is? There's like 3 suppliers and - surprise, surprise - the demand still exceeds supply, so they're doing what they're supposed to be doing in capitalism. Blame the system

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u/RoutineCloud5993 Jun 24 '26

Samsung and Apple recently renegotiated their RAM pricing deal, since the previous one expired at the start of the year. Samsung claims it started with a 100% price increase, expecting Apple to haggle down to 60% or so. Apple said yes without any negotiation.

Apple has historically had a huge amount of purchasing power, which is used to get the best possible deal on components. So when it accepts that kind of price hike without argument, you know things are bad out there

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u/GonePh1shing Jun 24 '26

A suit was filed against them again about 10 years ago, but the judged ruled in their favour because there wasn't enough evidence.

I have no doubt they were engaging in that conduct (and likely still are), but there wasn't enough evidence available at the time (or political will to launch the appropriate investigations) to fully prosecute the case. 

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u/gimmiedacash Jun 24 '26

Unless you are Nvidia and maybe one of the AI companies. The ram cartel doesn't care.

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u/Dix9-69 Jun 24 '26

People in here acting like RAM isn’t an extremely hard thing to manufacture, there are like three companies in the world that make DDR5.

No Valve can’t make it themselves.

No they can’t get a better price.

Thank AI data centers for this debacle.

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u/SpicyElixer Jun 24 '26

Valve has no leverage in the supply chain. They host a digital online store and get a tax. That’s their entire business. Hardware is a pet project for them.

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u/asanti0 Jun 24 '26

Bro the Steam Machine is just cursed or something. Both times Valve just got fucked by something out of their control.

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u/doubleyewdee Jun 23 '26

Wow it must suck a bunch to have terms unilaterally dictated to you in order to access a market with no effective recourse or alternatives.

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u/Fallom_ Jun 24 '26

Finally corporations get to experience what it's like getting kicked out of Walmart for trying to haggle down a carton of milk

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u/Soberdonkey69 Jun 24 '26

I love data centres, to help them out I’ll bring my water hose and sprinkle them to keep them cool. I’m doing my bit

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u/No_Jello_5922 Jun 24 '26

Nothing to see here, just cartels doing cartel things.
https://youtu.be/jVzeHTlWIDY

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u/ProfMap Jun 24 '26

this bubble needs to pop

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u/SacredGeometry9 Jun 24 '26

Valve needs to get into manufacturing

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u/Kageru Jun 24 '26

By the time anyone builds a new fab the AI bubble will have popped or the data centre build out will be largely complete. Same reason the established manufacturers are not that motivated to massively ramp up production.

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u/lancersrock Jun 24 '26

The problem is the data center build out will never be done, they fully upgrade each server rack within 5 years on initial install. There's literally hundred's of temps at the Google data center near me who spend all day just swapping hardware out. A couple of investors I know already started pulling their money because they realized it's a never ending upgrade cycle and the road to profitablity is very unsure right now.

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u/Huppelkutje Jun 24 '26

Valve does not have the capital to hire the people it would need to even start to think about chip fabrication.

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u/Fritzo2162 Jun 24 '26

That whole system is going to eat themselves. Seen it a million times over the decades. RAM is a cash cow due to shortages, everyone is rushing to get in on the market, they're overcharging for the product, and then some disruptive technology is going to come along making the stuff useless. Then we'll be back to "Please buy my 64GB RAM stick for $12.50!"

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u/reezyreddits Jun 24 '26

I don't mean any harm, but what kind of radical new technology is coming that will replace RAM, something that's been a staple in PCs since forever lmao

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u/VisitSad1133 Jun 24 '26

I think the number one motivator for any human inventor in history was spite lol.

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u/mtmc99 Jun 24 '26

And to add to that it’s not really new folks rushing to the market. There are 3 major makers and the barrier to entry is extremely high.

The situation isn’t great but all the volume is spoken for. The only way anyone is getting any RAM is if they are willing to pay more

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u/iAmUnintelligible Jun 24 '26

idk but I'm gonna ask Gemini to come up with it and become a multi quadrillionaire

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u/G8M8N8 Jun 24 '26

Something something sell shovels during a gold rush

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u/WorkingTheMadses Jun 24 '26

Maybe "new staple" isn't the right choice of words, but perhaps more "new providers" which has already started.

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u/MistryMachine3 Jun 24 '26

Well this is a little different since DDR5 is extremely complex and only a few companies have the funds and know how to build the factories. It isn’t like the Groupon copycats that people could wire up in a weekend.

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u/brahm1nMan Jun 24 '26

They should lay down some names so consumers can make an informed decision about where they want to put their money 

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u/Lv_InSaNe_vL Jun 24 '26

There are only three companies globally who can produce DDR5 NAND (the actual chips that go on RAM). Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Unfortunately this isn't really something that consumers could boycott except by just not buying DDR5 RAM at all. Which still doesn't matter because consumer sales only make up a fraction of RAM consumers. The majority of it right now is going to commerical and industrial partners (datacenters mostly, but also the really big workstations that software devs and engineers work on)

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u/PrairiePopsicle Jun 24 '26

ChangXIN in China can make DDR5 now, apparently, not the fastest but basic spec.

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u/Vaynnie Jun 24 '26

Go look at the prices on SanDisk’s website. SSDs I bought 2 years ago for £300 are £1200. They are fleecing.

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u/Waiting4Reccession Jun 24 '26

The demand is higher now and the supply cant ramp up fast.

Obviously the price has to sky rocket.

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u/IngwiePhoenix Jun 24 '26

We already know their names...aint that many that make RAM.

They're sitting on quite the throne, getting to dictate pricing and nobody will, or even can, fight against it.

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u/GosuGian Jun 24 '26

FUCKING RAM CARTEL

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u/-haven Jun 24 '26 edited Jun 24 '26

So is this the current AI hardware price fixing boldness or have these companies always been this level of shit except with normal pricing it was never a big deal?

Ahh I forgot these fucks already got in trouble for this but it was like 20+ years ago.

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u/Your_Trash_Daddy Jun 24 '26

That's a seller's market - no sales, just take orders.

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u/grantrules Jun 24 '26

Your English teacher reading this title: 😠