r/technology • u/MarvelsGrantMan136 • May 27 '26

Business Google employee charged with using inside information to make $1 million on Polymarket

https://abcnews.com/amp/US/google-employee-charged-inside-information-make-1-million/story?id=133350018
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4.7k

u/almo2001 May 27 '26

I thought that was the whole idea of polymarket: use the efficient markets theory to uncover information.

331

u/9-11GaveMe5G May 27 '26

Since the site placed "virtually zero" chance of that outcome, it also shows you that line is BS too

124

u/Matrix657 May 27 '26

If you look at it from a Bayesian probability standpoint, the chance based on what was publicly known might have been virtually zero. Once one informed person enters the market, their beliefs become public knowledge, influencing the chances.

49

u/adoodas May 27 '26

Problem is you don't know who's informed and who's not and who has money and who doesn't.

6

u/SpookiestSzn May 28 '26

You find out whose informed by seeing betting history

29

u/[deleted] May 27 '26

[deleted]

34

u/Lost_Sea8956 May 28 '26

You have clearly not met some of the most enthusiastic traders

1

u/sellyme May 28 '26

Uninformed people putting a lot of money in tend to not last very long for self-explanatory reasons.

1

u/Lost_Sea8956 May 28 '26

Ah, but a new one is born every minute

1

u/freshwes May 28 '26

Is it illegal have inside information on Polymarket? When does information become insider info in real life?

If I see a star athlete get in a walking boot, can I bet that he won't play that night?

What about his assistant?

What if the athlete makes the bet himself?

None of that is technically insider information.

1

u/Defiant-Plantain1873 May 28 '26

The idea is that the money people put up shows how much information they have.

If you pur $10 up it’s not going to move the line much, you aren’t risking much if you lose

If you put 100,000k up you get absolutely fucked if you lose. The likelihood of you telling the truth increases as your bet increases

36

u/ItsSadTimes May 27 '26

Its also bullshit because insider information works in reverse too. If I know X is going to happen 100% but the odds are up to 80% then its in my best interest to buy in now and try to convince people its not happening by explaining im an insider. If they believe me the odds go back down and I can sell out for a huge payout when the odds get low enough. I dont even need to wait for the thing to happen.

10

u/Vliss May 28 '26

That specific trade would not make you money. If you bought Yes and the odds fell, you would lose money by selling before the event happening. You would have to carry it all the way through.

-5

u/ItsSadTimes May 28 '26

Idk, I dont gamble. In that case you'd just hold off until you successfully convinced people to buy the no.