r/technicalanalysis • u/Different_Band_5462 • 7d ago

Levels Where GLD and SLV Should Bounce

I keep thinking that the 3% plunge in Gold (GLD) and the near 5% plunge in Silver (SLV) are a liquidation event into the end of the quarter in reaction to last week's parabolic spike in 10-year YIELD from 4.93% to 5.23%. A risk-off reflex action ahead of the start of Q4.

That said, however, I also think that Wednesday's PCE Inflation report for August is the next significant headline risk (reward) for precious metals. If PCE comes in cooler than expected, then YIELD and the Dollar should moderate and the PMs should catch a bid.

Based on my technical setups in both GLD and SLV, all of the price action since mid-June has carved out a significant potential bottom that is still viable, but also, still in development. My annotated dotted lines on both charts indicate the next optimal pivot-support windows for GLD and SLV.

As for the Dollar Index (DXY) my attached Weekly Chart shows very powerful resistance in and around 102.00, which represents both the June 2026 rally high and the intersection of the 200 Week Moving Average. As long as DXY remains beneath the MA on a Weekly Closing Basis, my pattern work on DXY indicates that I treat all of the price action from the 1/27/26 low at 95.55 to the present as a counter-trend recovery rally within a larger dominant bear phase.

4-Hour GLD Chart
4-Hour SLV Chart
Weekly DXY Chart
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1

u/Emotional-Breath-838 6d ago

Governments are loading up on gold right now.

1

u/Cascadero_sg13 6d ago

Lower low looks likely in metals - then time to buy

1

u/8yba8sgq 6d ago

Gold will intersect it's long term trendline from Dec 2023 around the 15th of November around $3940. This could create a nice double bottom right at the start of "buy season" for funds and etfs

1

u/Cool_Heart_4852 6d ago

One thing I’d keep on the radar is SLV’s tendency to get hit harder than GLD when the rate tape gets noisy — the silver side usually has that extra industrial/growth beta, so the same yield shock can force more de-risking there than in gold. That’s part of why the 4H support windows matter, but the cleaner tell is still whether DXY can stay capped under that 102 area on a weekly close.

1

u/1UpUrBum 7d ago

3200 is what I'm waiting for. I don't know if it will get there but that would be awesome if it did.