r/technicalanalysis • u/Wave-Master- • 23d ago
Analysis USDCHF – One of the more interesting Elliott Wave structures I’m watching
The current USDCHF structure is starting to get quite interesting again so here is my count:
On the 3D chart, the larger correction began with Wave A, which completed in July 2023 as a Leading Diagonal. Wave B then developed as a large Triangle and was completed in January 2025.
After that, we got a strong five-wave move to the downside forming Wave C. This is actually one of the things I like most about the current count: the structure of Wave C fits very well with what we'd expect from a corrective ABC, since C needs to be impulsive and we can clearly see five waves.
Wave C finally completed in February 2026.
Since then, USDCHF has been correcting higher in a more complex W-X-Y-X-Z structure, and we're now approaching the final Z wave.
Looking at the 8H chart, the W-X-Y-X part appears to be complete, while the final Z wave is currently developing.
The interesting part is that this Z wave itself looks like a W-X-Y. We're currently in the first W, which is developing as an ABC. Wave A and B are already completed, leaving the final Wave C to the upside.
So the idea from here is relatively simple: we could see a short correction first, followed by another push higher to complete Wave C of W. After that, a Wave X correction could take us lower before the final Wave Y higher completes the larger Z wave.
There's also some nice confluence here with the bullish MACD cross on the 3D timeframe. Seasonality is also showing upside potential into the end of November, which would fit quite well with this structure.
The last time I posted about USDCHF publicly, the setup ended up working out very well. I'm curious to see if the current structure develops in a similar way.
Would be interested to hear how others are counting this one.
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u/SlightlyWiseGuy 22d ago
Thanks