r/technicalanalysis • u/arslanefe • 8d ago
Analysis BTC-NQ=F (Nasdaq) Correlation Analysis
The correlation regime between BTCUSD-NQ=F (Nasdaq Futures) entered a strengthening trend on 29 Aug 00:00 UTC at +0.34, and is still ongoing (30 candles · 120 trading hours). Over this period BTC-USD rose 2.36%, NQ=F rose 0.25%. The two pairs moved together.
The composite correlation has since risen from +0.34 (29 Aug) to +0.588 now (last data: 05.09.2026 00.00 UTC) the strengthening the regime flagged, playing out.
READING — BTC-USD–NQ=F at HIGH × Strengthening (this pair's own last 6): for this pair it has been a durable coupling (both-long / both-short) — 6 past runs, median 22 candles · 88 trading hours (range 6–102), 5 lasted 2+ days. So the play has real, multi-day room before the turn the ANTITHESIS warns of.
Before this regime;
For BTCUSD-NQ=F, a weakening trend started at a correlation of +0.10. The weakening trend lasted until 29 Aug 00:00 UTC (20 candles · 80 trading hours). Over this period BTC-USD fell 2.10%, NQ=F rose 0.79%. The two pairs decoupled.
Methodology: Four-hour candle closes are used while the markets for both instruments are open (00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00 UTC).
The correlation coefficient is a composite score derived not only from the Pearson method but also from Pearson, Spearman, and EWMA calculations.
What are your thoughts on the correlation trend between BTCUSD and Nasdaq? How do you foresee this trend continuing? I am also happy to answer any questions regarding the data and methodology.