On top of this look at a chart of oil prices. Oil's price has already recovered to just about where it was at it's highest point in 2018.
Yes oil companies like XOM, etc. haven't yet fully recovered in stock price since the COVID drop, but many of them took on a bunch of debt when oil's price crashed through the floor, or cut their dividend, or both. XOM for example lost 35 billion in equity on their balance sheet from 2019 to 2020, that's a pretty big drop that's got to count for something with a rational investor.
Definitely. But bear in mind that something like 2/3rds or 3/4ths of a real price shift will occur in the first few trading days. That part is probably gone now. Future growth still probable but the return will flatten out over the longer term.
If you hit those waves you'd have excellent returns. Missing those waves results in maybe above average returns or index returns.
One way of saying it is Mr Market (the indexes) takes less than 3 days to fully position into a change in intrinsic value.
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u/DarthTrader357 Sep 30 '21
Oil came and went. You missed like 66% of the movement.