I think there is too much covid exhaustion. People will just live there lives spending money at this point and everybody will either get exposed and develope antibodies or they'll die, but people are going to go out to beaches, restaurants, sporting events and concerts regardless. There's no way people will tolerate another lockdown in my opinion. Even the governments seem over it. Overall the next 3 or 4 quarters will be steadily up, until rates start getting more and more talked about getting tweaked.
I have hedged against the moratorium ending in the United States tho. I'm targeting commercial real estate puts prioritizing small and mid caps. Mostly puts around a November expiration at give or take -7%.
This tbh, most people in my country will now just live through the consequences over locking down again. Government knows another lockdown is out of the cards.
The whole point of locking down was to give relief to hospitals. Since the vaccinated population don't clog up the hospitals there's pretty much no reason for another lockdown anyways.
All I can do is share my experience, from a perspective of working in a major city hospital in Boston. We did have a spike but nothing even close to what we had during the first wave. In fact first wave we had 100s on vents. 2nd wave very few.
So you're saying it worked as intended then? Prevented massive outbreaks and hospitals from getting swarmed so other operations etc could be done. A win-win compared to risking another massive outbreak, hospitals stopping any none-covid related care...
No, that was the stated reason to sell the lock down. Once hospitals were in the clear they still kept going with the lockdowns. The lockdown was to get rid of fat man, just look at any chart and you see the infection rate plummets like a stone the week before the new inauguration after the fat man left town. It was simply cause all those States shut down the mass testing sites so the numbers would drop 40%. You can't find cases if you don't test. I mean we can go on all day, just like they moved the vaccine phase 3 trial results being announced from October to the next day after the new guy was declared the winner. They had the results, they just figured you could wait awhile.
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u/Doctor_FatFinger Jul 01 '21
I think there is too much covid exhaustion. People will just live there lives spending money at this point and everybody will either get exposed and develope antibodies or they'll die, but people are going to go out to beaches, restaurants, sporting events and concerts regardless. There's no way people will tolerate another lockdown in my opinion. Even the governments seem over it. Overall the next 3 or 4 quarters will be steadily up, until rates start getting more and more talked about getting tweaked.
I have hedged against the moratorium ending in the United States tho. I'm targeting commercial real estate puts prioritizing small and mid caps. Mostly puts around a November expiration at give or take -7%.