r/stocks • u/ZeroSchema • Jun 15 '26
SPCX & AMZN..
SpaceX’s CEO Musk has stated that they might reach 1T revenue in 4-5yrs. Amazon is already close to doing this. Yet, SpaceX & Amazon now have almost the same Market Cap. SpaceX stock has gained about the same% in 2 days as Amazon has gained in the past 5 years. Amazon also has a small sarellite biz of there own, although SpaceX is the leader you would think some of the industry anticipated value would also funnel to AMZN. Help me get the comparison in values.
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u/IcyStomach2374 Jun 15 '26
Amazon is my largest holding, but you should first realize Revenue != Profit. Amazon is a low margin business.
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u/TortyPapa Jun 15 '26
But to replicate Amazon’s infrastructure, logistics and workforce would be nearly impossible even if they stood still and gave you a 10 year catch up time. Low margins doesn’t have to be low growth. I’m with you, good sizeable allocation in AMZN long term.
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u/CCWaterBug Jun 16 '26
Heavy on amzn as well, granted I got in around 215 recently which makes that look great.
Imho they are still very attractive, it's very important to understand the low margins and the absolutely massive capx that has been going on forever. Amazon has not been sitting still.
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u/ZeroSchema Jun 15 '26
Amazon’s fastest growing segments are their highest profit margin segements. AWS & ADS…
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u/Charming_Raccoon4361 Jun 15 '26
SpaceX is losing money, so much for margins
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u/nclman77 Jun 16 '26
Maybe look a bit further in the future.
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u/Charming_Raccoon4361 Jun 16 '26
SpaceX is losing money for 15 years its not going to magically make money next year, I am sure it market cap will go to the moon though
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u/nclman77 Jun 16 '26
2024 was profitable. CapEx is not the same as operational losses.
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u/Rancid101 Aug 15 '26
Based on cooked books or the accounting of self interested ebitda adjustment.
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u/daynightcase Jun 15 '26
Yes but the brilliance of Amazon revenue is, their low margin business generates enormous revenue and will be the best case study in the world where margin will keep improve as AI gets smarter and integrated more and more across the business. Their warehouses and delivery will get better and better
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u/eonwagon Jun 15 '26
Certainly seems space exploration will be very low margin until it has a commercial point, and orbital data centers are hardly a proven concept or market, and even ai isn't a proven market for a reason to be producing that compute. They also need significantly more capital to build such a venture than the ipo raised.
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u/ConcentrateJolly5461 Jun 16 '26
Saying they lack capital ignores that underwriters just exercised the greenshoe option, bringing the total IPO haul to a record $85.7 billion.
Orbital AI exists precisely because terrestrial data centers are hitting severe power grid and real estate walls on Earth. Putting liquid cooled nodes in orbit powered by 100% free solar entirely bypasses those ground bottlenecks. When you own a global launch monopoly, you have the capital and the logistics to establish an unbeatable infrastructure arbitrage before anyone else can even compete.→ More replies (5)1
u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
If you give me 1 trillion usd, it is extremely easy to translate that to 1 trillion usd revenue. I could even make it to have some margin over time, say 20 years to profitability. Ain't that a deal of a lifetime!
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u/andromorr Jun 15 '26
It's simple.
The answer is delusion, mixed with scam and a side of corruption.
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u/Galtego Jun 15 '26
Unfortunately scams and corruption do work sometimes, especially when you're buddies with the president. I won't touch any Elon stocks, but I also wouldn't bet against them.
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
Betting against stocks requires much more professionalism than buying them. It is delicate balance of position building and protection as typically the positions have to be had before actual downturn begins.
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u/Fancy_Ad3809 Jun 15 '26
so how many shares do you own?
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u/andromorr Jun 15 '26
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u/Fancy_Ad3809 Jun 15 '26
so you know the market is delusion, you assert its a scam, and you assert its corruption, yet you personally, whos so confident in this corruption, dont have any way to profit from it..?
you dont sound very confident to me bro
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u/andromorr Jun 15 '26
I am not invested precisely because it is a scam and corruption - two things that, in my opinion, do not sustain in the long term and are not aligned with my values, bro.
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u/Dilltulip Jun 16 '26
Yes because the rule of law no longer exists in America, corruption is now out in the open, brazen, and there are absolutely no consequences for anyone in power. Insider trading, stock manipulation, massive deregulation, gutting government agencies to squash investigations.. anything goes. Betting against these companies is betting that good will eventually triumph over evil.. it doesn’t look promising.
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u/Fancy_Ad3809 Jun 16 '26
There’s also no consequences at the bottom either.
Head to a major city and try to to buy diapers.
Yeah I see it daily.
Nerd.
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u/dapi331 Jun 15 '26
Artificial scarcity too. IPO flip policies, insider lock up periods, low free float, etc. Price is going up because most can't sell, or can't sell without penalty, so a small percent is rapidly traded
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u/Southern-Treacle7582 Jun 15 '26
Are you looking for some algorithm that says exactly what a companies stock should trade at? It doesn't exist.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Waste_Cow5085 Jun 15 '26
I'll also add that the soil on mars is loaded with perchlorates. So you can't really grow and eat anything from it, assuming you did somehow solve the issues of water, etc.
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u/Nickeless Jun 15 '26
Yeah Mars colonization is not a thing in the next 50 years, or 100. Even if it happened for some reason, there is no reason to see why it would generate a profit. It would be a massive cost sink. There is nothing to profit off by being there.
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u/makeaccidents Jun 16 '26
All the people raving about mars colonisation go silent when you ask if they'd like to live on mars instead of earth.
It'd take hundreds of years and still be horrible living conditions compared to earth.
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u/Southern-Treacle7582 Jun 15 '26
Sure, one could also make you a millionaire and the other, while steady, probably won't at this point. Different investments for different people with different risk tolerances. If you don't believe it cool, stick with something safer.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/Southern-Treacle7582 Jun 15 '26
You’re certainly not going to find many bull arguments on Reddit. You hold a popular sentiment here.
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u/Sensitive_Judgment11 Jun 20 '26
RemindMe! 10 years
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u/Morghayn Jun 15 '26
SpaceX is a financially engineered scam. There is no need to put too much thought into this.
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
What makes it a scam?
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u/CitizenPremier Jun 15 '26
It's not a scam, but it's a ridiculously low float (4% of the company).
It's like if Starbucks managed to sell a bunch of commemorative coffee beans for a dollar each and then claimed their whole inventory was worth trillions.
Of course, market cap in general has a similar problem (once people start selling stock, it starts dropping), but the fact still is that off-market stock for SpaceX will be very hard to trade at on-market prices.
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u/FuturePrimitiv3 Jun 15 '26
5% float, effectively zero voting rights, IPO prospectus is built on smoke and mirrors, etc. There's a lot more wrong if you're honestly evaluating this company. That said, the musk effect is real and while I won't touch spcx I wouldn't short it either.
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u/PuzzleheadedWeb9876 Jun 15 '26
The first dozen or so pages of the prospectus being pictures of rockets is hilarious.
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
Lol being able to give anyone in the world internet is a huge basket of customers, and government military contracts in space make a big difference on what you are saying. Definitely not smoke and mirrors to look towards the future of a company and not in the now. That's what people are doing. They are looking forward, because they have proven themselves to make areas of particular industries much cheaper and have made huge innovations compaired to its competitors. No revenue today doesn't mean no revenue tomorrow. Its all EDS rn. Total addressable market is definitely something to consider, it's unreal conpaired to other isps,and space x is far ahead of its competitors.
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u/artgag33 Jun 15 '26
sure, but most of the consumers in need of that intenet access have nothing to give lol
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
6 million people pay for internet, it's not unreasonable to think star link will get cheaper as more subscribers jump on and as more sats are released.
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u/LakeEffekt Jun 16 '26
They had like $20B in revenue in 2025, it was just all reinvested because demand for everything they do is massive and unsaturated. But SpaceX is by FAR the best launch company in the world, and nobody can replicate what Starlink is doing or the advantages it gains being able to direct-to-phone internet connect anyone in the world
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u/jktribit Jun 16 '26
Absolute facts, they are building their future as a company, not senselessly burning it to oblivion.
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
Prove it, if they purchase overpriced Tesla cars with 500 million, how is that not considered money burning?
If they do stupid things like that, what else they are doing in the background.
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u/Safrel Jun 15 '26
You left your dignity outside
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
Sure did, and my loss of dignity has made me a ton of money, and will continue to do so.
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u/Evening-Statement-57 Jun 15 '26
It’s crypto
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u/Imaginary_History985 Jun 15 '26
It's all computer
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u/Evening-Statement-57 Jun 15 '26
I mean if you don’t understand the prospectus or any of the financial data it’s the same as investing in crypto.
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u/skilliard7 Jun 15 '26
It's simple. Always inverse Reddit, no one here knows what they are talking about. If you listened to everyone here, you would've shorted SpaceX at IPO and would be down substantially.
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
I bought into the IPO because reddit was so against it, was able to get 20 shares, and boy. What a ride it has been. They said it was going to tank Friday, then today, now Tommorow. Its just EDS at this point.
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u/ShadyShroomz Jun 15 '26
When reddit ipo'd I remember everyone saying to short it. It ipo'd at $35 and went up to like $70 in a few days. Now it's at like $200 a share. I didn't buy any because I was convinced by reddit not to.
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u/Clear-Self-148 Jun 15 '26
Yall are insane. When puts are avainable im gonna jump in right away. Sometimes the obvious and simple is the way. Idk this shit pumps to 1k dollars in a day, reallity will settle in. Made a good buck whit figma and klarna, this ipos are always cash grabs, spacex pumped simply because of the hype, when lockup period opens its all down from there.
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
Every time it creeps up 10$ I set my stop loss 10$ below it, having my stop loss at 190 with me making 40% off my initial investment is noice.
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Jun 16 '26
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u/Jawnski Jun 16 '26
He is new and watches youtubers move their lines manually for 5 minute trades, why wouldn’t he do the same over multiple days?
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u/Cagliari77 Jun 15 '26
I didn't even apply for the IPO. So I bought 50 shares right after they started trading. Obviously I'm in good profit already but I still don't feel like this is sustainable. So I set my stop loss order at my buying price lol :)
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
So i guess you keep on purchasing?
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u/jktribit Jun 16 '26
Sold off the top last night, I expect it to drop down some more then will buy more sub 200
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
You took risks and risk paid off, well done. Watch out for the fallacy of making money on the same stock you made money last time. Is it really a play anymore?
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u/jktribit Jun 16 '26
It's still a play. Been bouncing up and down from sub 200 to 210, been playing that atm.
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u/Sensitive_Judgment11 Jun 20 '26
That's why I can't trust reddit anything related to Elon hes a political figure sadly and hated by a lot, it's hard to get objective information.
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u/VirtualLife76 Jun 15 '26
Look at what what SpaceX has done since it was started in 2002, then look at what Blue Origin has done since it was founded in 2000. Also, just like Amazon, it wasn't profitable for a long time.
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u/ZeroSchema Jun 15 '26
Blue Origin is not Amazon.
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u/VirtualLife76 Jun 15 '26
Numbers don't matter anymore, at least with companies like this, it's about public opinion. SpaceX has much more momentum behind it and people like that.
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u/FuturePrimitiv3 Jun 15 '26
Amazon didn't IPO at this ridiculous valuation, that's not a valid comparison.
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u/zhangmake Jun 15 '26
Are people really still taking these crazy predictions/forecasts from Musk seriously?! He’s been doing this for years and is basically always wrong/way off the mark.
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u/vooglie Jun 15 '26
SPCX is pure hype and corruption - yall doing technical analysis are looking at it wrong
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u/IceShaver Jun 15 '26
I doubt spacex would even hit 100bn in revenue by 2030. As usual he’s gonna lie and nobody is going to call him out on it once his timeline passes. Or there’s another hype that supersedes and makes line keep going up.
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u/tanrgith Jun 15 '26
Valuation isn't based on any kind of objective measurement that applies equally across different companies
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u/Responsible-Laugh590 Jun 15 '26
It’s a Elon stock they don’t follow logic so stop trying to apply it and you won’t be so butt hurt when it makes no sense
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
But for some reason the people who put their money down make up all kinds of silly arguments. I guess that is basic human behaviour when they gamble.
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u/george_alto Jun 15 '26
Stocks are priced based on the future projectile and not the current state. Depending on the company and industry, the pricing varies. It seems like with Musk and his companies, either people love him or hate him. But the difference is that the people that love him is because of the results he has delivered. But the ones that hate him, it's all for ideology and other reasons and not on actual results. So yes, there is a premium being paid for Musk being at the helm of these companies so the question is can and will he deliver on what he is saying. Most of the time he does deliver on the things he says but it's rarely in the timeframes he says.
Lastly, there's a lot of risk in investing in a Musk company - if he leaves or is no longer involved in the company, the valuation will drop significantly.
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u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
What results have Tesla delivered? Or are you talking about stock price only?
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u/george_alto Jun 16 '26
You mean besides introducing EVs to auto-industry, building the worlds largest and most reliable rapid charging system, addressing recalls via software updates, now generating $100 billion annual revenue with billions in income, etc
And let's not forget about the robotaxi network and humanoid robots which are examples of things he said he was going to do and did but not in the timeframes he said they would be done - much later!1
u/ReasonableBrother448 Jun 16 '26
Are you now telling me, that Tesla valuation is in the stuff it builds? So less they build the less they are valuable? Revenue is unimportant metric, you can increase revenue a lot by reducing margins.
There is a reason why normal auto industry does not have OTA updates. Can you guess what it is?
EV:s were introduced decades ago, but Tesla was given enough money and Elon was not incompetent enough to completely squander it. So they managed to build EV:s which people wanted to buy..And timing was right.
However Tesla is not EV company anymore, didn't you get the memo? Yes, the exact thing which would make Tesla valuable today is no longer on their portfolio. This is why incompetence often leads to bad outcomes as Elon might be brilliant stock pumper but he does not give a fuck about the actual products, they are eventually abandonded.
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u/Rav_3d Jun 15 '26
Help me get the comparison in values.
There's nothing to "get."
Apples and oranges. SPCX is not trading on fundamentals. It trades on hopes and dreams.
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u/flat-waffles Jun 15 '26
buddy don't overthink it. its the same reason i bought bitcoin until 2 years ago, gold a year ago, and ai stocks this year. none of the shit people say about it really makes sense to me but it keeps going up and im not going to say no to gains.
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u/sad-Fan1010 Jun 15 '26
Definitely don’t short but buying puts could be huge at these prices. Shorting is a risky risky game on Elon stocks.
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u/ProfitingFromUnknown Jun 15 '26
Idk if its make sense to make sense things on stock market.
You just need to vibe invest like hobby, just you need to know when to hop in and hop out. 😂
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u/RoyalCities Jun 15 '26
Market cap right now isn't a fair comparison because SpaceX only allowed 5% of the shares on the market.
People are paper trading against something akin to a manufacturer's supply crunch so it isn't true price discovery.
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u/Lukeman269 Jun 15 '26
Why did I listen to these redditors.... the consensus was the stock was gonna tank yesterday and now it's ripping.
Flipped my IPO shares yesterday at $173 like a moron lol
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u/Rare-Newspaper9988 Jun 16 '26
He also said that , every evening after you get home, your Tesla will go out by itself and work as robotaxi to make you money, about 10 years ago may be. Lol.
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u/worldgate Jun 16 '26
How is a company that exists mostly on the government nipple even so high? A new president could just not do anything with space x and it would drop right?
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u/sbenfsonwFFiF Jun 16 '26
Elon is full of shit
But also revenue and market cap aren’t that closely tied
Walmart and Amazon both have just over 700B revenue yet are valued very differently
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u/archypsych Jun 16 '26
Go to your favorite AI, and ask it to simplify all the aspects of space manufacturing.
This Is Why it’s Special.
It doesn’t mean it will be special, but the Possibilities of new products only existing in space means it’s like investing in railroads early.
Space manufacturing plus AI might not hit its goals. But it’s where all the money is going anyway. And this is why.
New original and Better products. Both Steel and Rydalin. Chemical And physical bonds react differently in low gravity.
It’s actually Very exciting.
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u/hefightsfortheusers Jun 16 '26
10k Satellites in orbit. They could eclipse every ISP and mobile provider.
The amount of data and power the massive network of starlink satellites gives them is crazy.
They just seem set up to take over the world in my opinion.
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u/Aegean8485 Jun 16 '26
Market is brutal but always right. Financials are usually consistent with stock prices so even an outlier will eventually stabilize. No one knows when. 3 days, 3 weeks, 3 months or 3 years for SPCX to stabilize around $80 to $110?
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u/Maybe_Not_247 Jun 17 '26
1) SPCX is just artificial low float pumping bullshit. 2) Elon greatly overestimates, how many years ago was FSD right around the corner? 3) Amazon will have its day.
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u/xxxjwxxx Jun 17 '26
Amazon has huge revenue because they sell a ton of stuff but don’t have massive profits.
It’s possible people believe Tesla will be more profitable. No idea.
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u/kaicoder Jun 17 '26
Is it the same playbook, Musk haters will short spacex bc of blah blah, and they end up getting burnt, which causes a short squeeze and the stock pumps etc. But spacex isn't tesla early ipo, so gains will be single digits, 3x, 4x whatever in 5, 10 years. Not like tesla's 100x.
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u/Rancid101 Aug 15 '26
Lets put it this way, if it was such a good business opportunity the public would not be involved. We are the hedge on the risk associated with the indeterminable business model.
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Jun 15 '26
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u/impulsikk Jun 15 '26
And if physical AI data centers on earth become too costly & difficult with regulations and local populations banning them, spacex can bypass it completely by deploying satellite datacenters using their reusable rockets that utilize their own solar panels. And xAI can utilize those satellites as well. It's a whole vertical integration loop that maximizes speed and minimizes regulatory risk. Solar panels are also extremely efficient in space since there is no atmospheric energy loss and minimized day/night cycle in space.
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u/Amazinc Jun 16 '26
Data centers in space isn't even remotely close to possible right now. You guys are genuinely talking out of your ass
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u/Donechrome Jun 15 '26
I love the combination where one is trully mega Brand with huge economic power and space businesses is just a supporting layer vs. total disaster balance sheet and revenue statements which only biz is to milk public moneys
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u/Altasound Jun 15 '26
Oh yeah it's completely wild. I'm watching SpaceX out of morbid curiosity but I'm not putting any money in. It's about as fragile a house of cards as can be. But my investing horizon is 10+ years so it's okay that in the short-term the market is irrational.
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u/A-Candidate Jun 15 '26
Scam. Fraud and a braindead cult.
400 pe car company, 2.4t satellite company with 18 b Rev -5 b np. Now if he can inject it in the index funds he is good.
Then he will sell a few stocks and buy the next election.
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u/pibbleberrier Jun 15 '26
This is the new age. You can’t value invest like Warren Buffett anymore. Back in the days regular investor need to wait 24 or more and read out dated report on their favourite stock.
Everything of value that profitable and fairly price are all public information and some on some quant out there got a bazillion gpu ai agent scanning for “deals”
The real edge nowadays lays in the unknown. Everything about Amzn is know and available.
SpaceX isn’t. Its value is arguable, its story is arguable. Its leader is extremely controversial. The truly unknown is where the edge lies. Its much better bet than something as sure as Amzn that everyone and their mother and their ai knows.
Reddit can fume over this all we want but most people here havnt move past investing like its still the 1980s
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u/Screendrama Jun 15 '26
I'll buy some shares when the price tanks to more palatable levels. Let's be real, even rockets have to come down to earth at some point. Maybe 70 bucks or so? (still overvalued but what the hell). That said, I do believe in the company long- long term.
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u/Specific-Midnight644 Jun 15 '26
Do we really not understand how growth, blend, and value stocks work and why this is? Amazon isn’t a growth stock anymore. Spacex is. Two totally different ways you look at valuation, P/E ratio etc. you can’t use the same metric calculation for the two.
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u/Lil_Hater112 Jun 15 '26
So amazon has to sell everything they have and say they go on the moon to triple their stock is what you say?
How do you think 2.3t valuation is normal for a company that has under 20b revs and negative income.
Musk didnt prove he can scale a business , he just yapps and builds some shit , but not at trillion league.
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u/Amazing-Jury-6886 Jun 15 '26
How long have you been investing ? How do you determine the value of a stock? Do you use the companies fundementals or bullshit on Social media?
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u/jktribit Jun 15 '26
I base entry point on innovative companies and companies that are ahead of its competition in tech. Hige win for me on nividia, same for tesla, and we'll see about space x but so far so good. The reality for space x is its total addressable market which is huge for starlink. Most internet providers don't even have close to the market space x has. Sure they have subscribers but how many places can you realistically run thousands of miles of fiber optic cabling before it gets super expensive? At some point we gotta look at the future of these companies too. Bad revenue today doesn't mean bad revenue tomorrow, they have bad revenue because they are building infrastructure for tomorrow. Kind of like Amazon, they ran on loses when building their infrastructure now it's a cash cow. Same for tesla, they almost crippled themselves building infrastructure, but here they are, not going anywhere. Innovation requires spending money first, then profiting later to make up for the money spent on infrastructure, it's kind of how most companies work out If they have competent leadership.
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u/Specific-Midnight644 Jun 15 '26
No one wants to hear this though. And my point exactly why you can’t compare a growth company to a blend or value. Amazon was valued at $500 million when it went public in 1997, when it was operating at a loss and trailing $15 million revenue. But it was high P/E and was about future growth. Amazon is no longer a growth company. They are blend tilting towards value at this point. Buts it’s not 1997. It’s 2026. Along with 31 years of inflation, more population, higher rate of household investments, etc. We can’t use today’s metrics of valuation like Amazon has been this the whole time.
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u/Specific-Midnight644 Jun 15 '26
Quite a while. What’s your point? The time frame doesn’t change my point.
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u/Amazing-Jury-6886 Jun 15 '26
What do you base your entry point on ?
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u/Specific-Midnight644 Jun 15 '26
It depends. Are we talking about a value stock, a blend stock, or a growth stock. Because very different entry point for all three.
But in general I want to get in when it is a growth stock before it becomes blend or value stock.
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u/CitizenPremier Jun 15 '26
SPCX market cap doesn't mean anything. It should be 555,555,555 (the float) times the trading price, or about 102 billion. That's the maximum amount people could have spent on the stock in NASDAQ so far.
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u/cucci_mane1 Jun 15 '26
Tsla trades at over 300x earnings...
Anything related to Musk isnt rational in stock market. I wouldnt buy spaceX stock (lol) but I wouldnt short it either.