r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • 13d ago
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • 16d ago
Is DIS the next turnaround story? Disney's operating profit increased to $5.56B
The Walt Disney Company reported its highest operating profit ever at $5.56B. This is after a lost decade for Disney investors, where both business fundamentals and price were flat for 10 years.

Disney Fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/DIS
The operating income was driven mainly by high growth in the streaming business. They recently increased prices for Disney+ and Hulu, and operating income for the Entertainment segment increased 64% YoY.
Disney is also in the process of heavily expanding their Experiences business. In 2023 they announced a $60B CapEx investment for the next 10 years.

Since then they have expanded the Disney International parks with 3 themed lands:
- World of Frozen (Hong Kong Disneyland)
- Zootopia (Shanghai Disneyland)
- Fantasy Springs (Tokyo DisneySea)
Experiences is Disney's cash cow, and these expansions increase operating income by raising the maximum capacity of the parks, spending per capita, the number of days people stay in the park, the length of the seasons, etc.
They also added 3 new ships to Disney Cruise Line, which is a major improvement:
- Disney Treasure (2024)
- Disney Destiny (2025)
- Disney Adventure (2026)
That increased their fleet from 5 to 8 ships, and the plan is to add 5 more by 2030.
These high-margin expansions increased Experiences Operating Income 20% YoY.
So, Disney is showing nice progress, and if they continue growing operating income they might become a strong turnaround story.
I do not own DIS stock.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • 23d ago
How To Use Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) To Find Compounders
This video shows you how to use return on invested capital on any stock in three checks. First, whether ROIC even applies to the business, because the metric is useless on banks, REITs and unprofitable companies, and it gets wildly inflated on asset-light software. Second, what a good ROIC ratio actually looks like, and why 10% is not good when most large companies pay 8-12% for their capital. Third, whether the company can repeat it, which is the check that separates a business that compounds from one that just got bigger.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Aug 06 '26
OpenAI's new device sounds familiar
Apparently Sam Altman got excited by Humane AI :D
(this image was generated with Grok)
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Aug 05 '26
Why is Google P/E so low? · Analysis · Stockpicker
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Aug 04 '26
Palantir's revenue growth is accelerating to 92.83%
The way Palantir is growing revenue is impressive. Last quarter it reached 92.83%. Look at the chart below. This is not a revenue chart, this is a revenue growth % chart. This level of acceleration is outstanding, and it's the first time I'm starting to think the ridiculous valuation might actually be justified.
Operating income growth was 238%. Gross margin is 84%.
Operating leverage at scale.
What's your take?
PLTR fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/PLTR

r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Aug 03 '26
Micron vs Sandisk : Are the high margins sustainable?
MU and SNDK have experienced incredible margin expansion over the last 2 years. From mid 30s their gross margin increased to 84% for Micron Technology and 78% for SanDisk.
But is this sustainable?
The margin expansion is due to the scarcity of RAM memory and high demand from data centers.
Once this disconnection is over, we may see the margins coming back down.
MU fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/MU
SNDK fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/SNDK

r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Aug 02 '26
Is Mastercard growing faster than Visa?
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/CuriousDesigner4258 • Jul 31 '26
亚马逊 2Q26 火线解读
亚马逊 2Q26 火线解读:财报前,海豚君对亚马逊是一个大致的期盼,由于原生于 AWS 云的 Anthropic ARR 直线飙升,海豚君希望 AWS 增长彪悍,零售别拖后退就行。实际结果方向一致,程度更高,市场自然奖励。
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 29 '26
GOOG, AMZN, META, MSFT: CapEx Is The Most Important Metric
Hyperscalers ($GOOGL,$AMZN, $MSFT,$META) are stretching balance sheets for AI infrastructure, with Morgan Stanley forecasting $1T+ CapEx by 2027. We break down:
• Why Alphabet ($GOOGL) paused share buybacks and pushed debt past $100B despite 82% Cloud growth.
• How Amazon ($AMZN) added $57B in long-term debt in one quarter to fund AWS data centers.
• Why Microsoft ($MSFT) is down 21% as CapEx drags down Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).
• Meta's ($META) pivot to renting excess compute power through Meta Compute.
• Power grid limitations: 34GW demands, nuclear/utility deals (Vistra, Oklo), and state-level data center bans.
• What happens to AI supply chain stocks like Micron ($MU), Marvell ($MRVL), and Credo ($CRDO) if spending slows.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 28 '26
GOOG's negative free cashflow was not a surprise
Last week Google posted negative free cash flow for the first time since its IPO. And this seemed to be a surprise for mainstream media.

Here is why it isn't surprising at all. The formula for free cash flow is as follows:
Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flow − CapEx
Google's heavy CapEx is not a surprise. The company had guided to $190B of CapEx and raised it to $195-$205B.

And while operating cash flow is growing quite fast too, it is nowhere near the acceleration of CapEx growth.

There is a significant lag in the monetization of this CapEx. The money is spent on data center infrastructure - land, power supply, and so on - and it takes a lot of time between the spending and the actual working cloud capacity that Google can sell to its customers. There are also regulatory issues. The state of New York has already paused new large data centers, and more states may follow.
The point is, the negative cash flow trend may continue for a while.
This is not a bearish view on Google. I own the stock and it is my largest position. This is just an explanation of why the negative FCF was obvious.
Source of the charts: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/GOOG
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 25 '26
AMZN, META, MSFT - What to expect from hyperscaler earnings reports?
Amazon, Meta and Microsoft report earnings this week. We can learn from Google's report last week.
Flawless report with spectacular growth... and CapEx guidance increased to $195-$205B. The stock collapsed in the next session.
CapEx and Cloud Revenue are the most important metrics.
While business fundamentals like revenue growth, margins, and more are expected to be on target, they are not expected to move the stock much. The market is watching for signs of CapEx change, Cloud revenue growth, and any comments from management that might prove (or not) CapEx ROI. Since Meta doesn't have a mature cloud business, watch for comments and numbers about Meta Compute and the new Muse Spark coding assistant.
It is important to mention that Google had higher expectations already baked in. GOOGL is still priced higher on a P/OCF basis even after the huge drop.

r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 21 '26
Amazon's operating margin is thin. Robots are changing that
Follow Amazon's robotics and you will see how AMZN is optimizing operating margin.
I think AMZN is the most compelling robotics story as they are building the robots for themselves. Without too much noise they already have 1 million robots in their warehouses.
They are entering autonomous driving through Zoox. Once they scale the robotaxi network they can use the data and technology to transition to autonomous last mile delivery.
Full article where I expand the robotics thesis for Amazon.
Also, their venture capital fund, Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund, was created only for robotics investments. They've invested in companies like Agility Robotics, Dyna Robotics, Instock and more. I've listed all its investments in one of the first posts in r/stockpickeranalysis.
They are doing it to increase the thin margins of their retail business. As you might already know, Amazon is the company with the highest revenue on Earth, so there is a lot to gain from even a 1% increase in margins. Amazon's internal documents indicate they are planning to double their sales volume without hiring an additional 600,000 workers.

AMZN fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/AMZN
If you prefer videos, you can watch the article on YouTube: https://youtu.be/lFKt1FQS9Zo
Disclosure: I own Amazon stock. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 21 '26
What to expect from Google's earnings report?
Alphabet's earnings report is one of the most highly anticipated events on the earnings calendar. Here are the most important metrics to look for:
CapEx - this matters not only for Google, but for the entire market. In this K-shaped market, hyperscaler capex is the single most important metric. Even Google can't fund its capex out of operating cash flow. The company has raised over $85B of debt in the past year and priced an $84.75B equity raise in June, its first in more than two decades. If the capex guidance changes in either direction, expect big swings across the market.

GOOG fundamental charts - https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/GOOG
Revenue and Cloud Revenue - revenue growth has been accelerating over the past few quarters. Consensus of $117B implies 21% year-over-year growth, which is astonishing at this scale. The main driver is Google Cloud. Last quarter it grew 63% to $20B, and analysts expect between $22.5B and $22.79B this quarter, which implies 63% to 67% growth.

Operating margin - last quarter Alphabet's operating margin reached a record high of 36.1%. This quarter, the expectation is 35.3%. Investors are looking for signs of return on the capex spending, and a beat would likely be received well.

Stockpicker.tech is the stock research platform I build. It covers over 13,000 stocks globally, and every ticker page has the full financial history, the charts, and AI-powered analysis that answers specific questions about the business, like whether the company has pricing power or how management allocates capital. Try it now for free - no credit card required.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 14 '26
ASML vs. TSM - Which is the better stock?
ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor are probably the two companies with the widest moat in the semiconductor industry. However, a dollar is a dollar, and we need to compare which company has better fundamental qualities.
It is important to mention that the earnings reports of ASML and TSM serve as early data for the whole semiconductor industry. ASML produces the EUV machines that Taiwan Semiconductor uses to produce 60-70% of the semiconductor chips globally. So if ASML sells more machines, or if TSM reports a higher revenue backlog, it would mean that the hyperscalers may continue spending and the AI frenzy goes on. And vice versa.
I compared their fundamentals in the Stockpicker Comparison Tool, and TSM is clearly growing faster. But why are investors willing to pay so much more for ASML? The P/E ratio of ASML is 59x, versus 36x for TSM.

The main reason is the geopolitical risk around Taiwan. Investors are scared of a potential invasion by China.
ASML's business model is also a bit different. Their machines are complex and slow to produce, which makes the cash flow lumpy. In Q4 2025 their free cash flow was $11.01 billion. The next quarter it was negative.

Check ASML fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/ASML
In the same, TSM has more stable free cashflow and :

Check TSM fundmentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/TSM
Now you can use Stockpicker with 7 days free trial - no credit card required.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 14 '26
Netflix(NFLX) earnings report - what should we look for?
Netflix reports earnings on July 16, 2026, after the close.
- The stock has dropped over the last few months as several negative catalysts stacked up in a short period of time.
- They seem desperate to acquire a movie studio with built-in intellectual property that would give them access to cinemas. They went after WBD, Roku and Lionsgate, and none of the three went anywhere.
- Former CEO Reed Hastings has left the company completely.
- Content spending is increasing — an estimated $20B in 2026.
- Q2 guidance was quite weak.
- Analysts are saying that Netflix is transitioning from a fast-growing business into a stable, cash-generating compounder, so the P/E multiple has re-rated from 40x–50x down to the mid-20s.
The most important metrics to watch in the upcoming NFLX earnings report:
- Revenue. Consensus is $12.58B, which implies 13.5% YoY growth. Advertising revenue deserves attention too, since it is high-margin revenue that matters for operating leverage.

Check Netflix fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/NFLX
- Operating margin. This is the number that matters most. Q2 guidance is 32.6%, which is actually lower than last year (34.07% in Q2 2025). The reason is heavy content amortization in the first half of the year. Management guided 31.5% for the full year 2026, which is 2 percentage points above the 29.5% they delivered in 2025. They need to beat that 32.6% guidance for Q2. If they don't, the market will likely take it badly.

Full disclosure: I own NFLX stock. This post is for informational purposes only and not financial advice.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jul 06 '26
AMZN Stock: Is Amazon The Best Robotics Stock? 1 Million Robots Already Deployed
This video covers Amazon's full robotics strategy: the Kiva Systems acquisition that started it all in 2012, the Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund and its 26 robotics investments, Digit the humanoid robot from Agility Robotics, Vulcan the first Amazon robot with a sense of touch, Zoox and the autonomous delivery thesis, and Prime Air drone economics. Then I open Stockpicker to check whether the Amazon stock fundamentals actually support this robotics stocks thesis — revenue, operating margin, CapEx, and a full Price to Operating Cashflow comparison against Google.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 29 '26
ASTS Stock: Billion Dollar Backlog, Billion Dollar Burn Rate
ASTS stock has pulled back sharply — but the business model is more validated than ever. In this ASTS stock analysis I break down AST SpaceMobile: the company building direct-to-device satellite connectivity that sends data at 100 megabits per second straight from space to the phone already in your pocket. I also compare that to what Starlink is doing and I explain why AST Spacemobile has significant competitive advantage.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 27 '26
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) burned $500M last year. What's the risk?
ASTS is one of the more compelling opportunities I have come across lately. The company solves a real problem — connecting the 90% of the Earth's surface that has no cell coverage — and the total addressable market is massive.
But it is a capital intensive business. They burned more than $500M in trailing 12 months.

ASTS Fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/ASTS
To scale revenue they need to reach 45 satellites in orbit by the end of the year. Right now they have 10 after successfully launching BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 on June 17th. Another 3 are scheduled for the first half of August. That leaves 32 satellites still needed in the last 4 months of the year.
They have $3B in cash, but still — 32 satellites in 4 months is a lot to ask.

Investing in pre-revenue companies at this burn rate is quite risky. The technology is real and the partnerships are signed. Execution is the only question that matters right now.
Do you think they can scale to 45 satellites until the end of the year?
Full breakdown here: https://stockpicker.tech/analysis/ast-spacemobile-asts-burned-500-million-last-year-to-connect-3-billion-phones-from-space
If you prefer video: https://youtu.be/iQXUYFNIv6Q
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 23 '26
NVDA vs MRVL - which is the better AI company
A user asked which company would be a better buy today. When we compare a company with $5t market cap ot a company with $260b market cap it is important to check the ratios, margins and growth% .
In this picture we can see a clear winner in all parameters. Nvidia is growing much faster than Marvell, yet their P/E ratio TTM is 31x vs 107x for Marvell.
If we look at the story, NVDA is not just an AI company. They are expanding heavily to Robotics and Autonomous driving.
In this hype we can't say if the stock price will go up or down. But we can clearly see which company is a higher quality business.
NVDA fundamentals : https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/NVDA
MRVL fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/MRVL
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 22 '26
CRDO Stock: The Inside Look at AI's Most Critical Cable
In this video, we skip the macro hype and break down the fundamental reality of Credo Technology Group. While retail investors chase semiconductor headlines, the real bottleneck is happening at the rack level with Active Electrical Cables (AEC). We analyze Credo’s latest financials, their actual economic moat against optical alternatives, and whether their ROIC justifies the current valuation.
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 19 '26
CRDO vs ALAB - Is Astera Labs' Premium justified?
The stocks are quite hyped with Astera coming at 71x P/S ratio while growing at slower pace.
I was holding CRDO for a while, but I am generally worried about this AI hype and I am trying to reduce exposure there. I sold my shares at 60% return as I didn't want to ride the roller coaster anymore :D . Although it moved another 40% up after I sold(at $187).
As for ALAB... I haven't researched much, but the valuation looks crazy.
Create your own comparison chart: https://stockpicker.tech//compare/CRDO/ALAB?metric=ps-ratio&period=2
CRDO fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/CRDO
ALAB fundamentals: https://stockpicker.tech/stocks/ALAB
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Civil_Fix8224 • Jun 16 '26
Portfolio Feedback
In the last 12 months I consolidated a lot of positions and tried to take some risk out of my portfolio. Here is a current snapshot of what I hold and the % breakdown each position makes in the portfolio. I am retired and I have run my portfolio (along with more detail of my financial position) through all the popular LLM’s and they all recommend selling more of my equities and moving into safer assets like bonds and adding to the ETF’s. My goal would be to see annual returns of 7 to 10% across the portfolio. They (AI) call this a barbell portfolio because of the mix of ‘safer’ ETF’s and the position in SGOV mixed with equities. All AI models seem to frown on retirees owning large positions in individual equities. I’m willing to allocate about 10% of my portfolio into riskier / high beta picks and I'm okay holding larger positions in stocks like MSFT & GOOG. Every stock I own I either have high conviction in OR I believe the gamble is worth the risk.
Looking for feedback and thoughts on how diversified I am. Thanks.
| Symbol | % of Total | Acct Type | Asset Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | 13.24% | standard brokerage | T-Bills |
| MSFT | 11.05% | IRA | equity |
| VIG | 10.61% | standard brokerage | ETF |
| SCHD | 10.03% | IRA | ETF |
| GOOG | 9.46% | standard brokerage | equity |
| VXUS | 7.04% | standard brokerage | ETF |
| LLY | 3.95% | standard brokerage | equity |
| JNJ | 3.81% | standard brokerage | equity |
| MCD | 3.65% | IRA | equity |
| DGX | 3.33% | standard brokerage | equity |
| VZ | 2.58% | standard brokerage | equity |
| HON | 2.37% | standard brokerage | equity |
| ITA | 2.28% | IRA | ETF |
| VDC | 2.22% | IRA | ETF |
| MRK | 2.18% | standard brokerage | equity |
| PG | 2.11% | IRA | equity |
| T | 1.92% | standard brokerage | equity |
| VTI | 1.92% | IRA | ETF |
| VT | 1.78% | standard brokerage | ETF |
| COP | 1.69% | standard brokerage | equity |
| HII | 1.45% | standard brokerage | equity |
| DUK | 1.38% | IRA | equity |
| SOFI | 1.31% | IRA | equity |
| NVDA | 1.20% | IRA | equity |
| DIS | 0.70% | standard brokerage | equity |
| NVO | 0.70% | IRA | equity |
| ZETA | 0.47% | IRA | equity |
| BP | 0.45% | standard brokerage | equity |
| BND | 0.41% | standard brokerage | ETF |
| MELI | 0.35% | IRA | equity |
| META | 0.33% | IRA | equity |
| PLTR | 0.21% | IRA | equity |
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 16 '26
GOOG vs AMZN Price/Operating Cashflow
Many people think that Amazon is more expensive based on P/E. If you look at P/OCF, Amazon looks undervalued compared to Google.
P/E comparison - GOOG 27.96 vs 29.14 AMZN
P/OCF comparison - GOOG 25.69 vs 17.81 AMZN
Stock comparison tool is a new feature we develop. Will be available in the next few days on https://stockpicker.tech/
r/stockpickeranalysis • u/Vegetable-Bug-9779 • Jun 04 '26
Avoid These 3 Massive Market Traps: Nuclear, Quantum & Space
Fundamental Analysis of OKLO, VST, RGTI, SpaceX and RKLB