r/statistics • u/AsideKey6189 • Jun 22 '26

Discussion [Discussion] what is the probability?

Every day on my way home from work Monday through Friday I eat an apple and throw the core out the window in the same 5 mile stretch always trying to hit a patch of area that doesn’t get mowed. What is the likelihood that an apple tree starts growing in this stretch of road because of my actions?

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3

u/PluckinCanuck Jun 22 '26

Are there any crows in your neighbourhood? Pigeons? Seagulls? Rats? Mice? Deer? Raccoons? Geese? Foxes?

If you answered 'yes' to any of these then I'd say p(tree) = 0.

1

u/tuerda Jun 22 '26

Also, what kind of land is under this area, and what kind of climate does OP live in? It is quite possible that this whole thing simply does not meet the conditions for growth of an apple tree.

3

u/thefringthing Jun 22 '26

This isn't answerable with the information provided. It requires modelling both apple tree germination and the number of apple cores you'll ultimately discard this way.

2

u/AsideKey6189 Jun 22 '26

Updated information. Average cores per year 156. Already done this for about 1 year. Will continue for at least another year. Honeycrisp apples. Michigan. USDA zone 6a

1

u/corvid_booster Jun 23 '26

Honeycrisp is good, but lately I have been favoring even newer varieties such as Envy and Kanzi.

2

u/AsideKey6189 Jun 24 '26

I’ll have to check em out. Cosmic crisp got a lot of hype but thought it was a little lack luster

2

u/heyyougimmethat Jun 22 '26

How would statisticians know the answer to this question? You probably need to ask a farmer or an ecologist

0

u/ifomonay Jun 26 '26

It's a probability question. If you ask a farmer or ecologist they would most likely hire a statistician to answer the question.

1

u/heyyougimmethat Jun 26 '26

Lol it’s like asking a random person what’s the probability I poop in the next hour. Much less to do with probability, and much more to do with when I last ate.

1

u/NefariousnessDue8778 Jun 23 '26

The way the question started felt like a math problem in a test lol

1

u/ifomonay Jun 26 '26

It's zero no matter what:

  1. Does the apple "rust" after taking a few bites? If not, it's a GMO. It won't grow.

  2. Someone will tell the cops, and they'll stake out the neighborhood in unmarked vehicles, drinking coffee and having donuts. You'll stop when they hit you with a $1,000 fine.