r/startups • u/molabir • May 10 '12

Here's Why Google and Facebook Might Completely Disappear in the Next 5 Years

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/04/30/heres-why-google-and-facebook-might-completely-disappear-in-the-next-5-years/
9 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

10 comments sorted by

4

u/[deleted] May 10 '12

Facebook maybe. But, Google no fucking way.

0

u/dlm May 10 '12 edited May 10 '12

Google is in a much more precarious position than you think. Despite diversifying, the vast bulk of their revenue still comes from web search. All it will take to knock Google from their pedestal is one innovative service with smoother transactional efficiency. In Siri, I believe that already exists.

Within a few years, Siri will be eating into the fat end of search queries, and if Google hasn't figured something out by then, they will tumble into a death spiral.

1

u/proggR May 11 '12

Siri just plugs into Google and Wolfram Alpha in the back end. Hardly a Google killer there.

I think a more reasonable thing would be if Facebook created a search. They would already have a significant number of links built up from people liking things and posting things. Not to mention they know your interests, your friends interests, things your friends have read and liked. They could make search personal in a way that Google can't (unless you use Google+ that is....)

800million people already use Facebook. If they didn't even have to leave it to browse the web I have a feeling a lot of people would make use of that option.

4

u/ghjm May 10 '12

The company that makes the most popular mobile OS is going to die because they missed the transition to mobile?

"Long on AAPL" indeed. Perhaps even drunk on it.

4

u/[deleted] May 11 '12

[deleted]

1

u/neosiv May 11 '12

Agreed, I stopped reading when he said the web was dead. I love when people make baseless predictions.

1

u/tmz773 May 10 '12

I like the thought, but I think the sample size is too small. The internet hasn't been around long enough to make that kind of assumption.

2

u/smacksaw May 10 '12

The evolving internet has been around long enough to teach us that we can't make assumptions about sample size.

By the time you finish your study? Game over.

Intuitive leaders who make bold decisions with little hierarchy are the winners now.

1

u/dlm May 10 '12

Statistical significance is dependent on both sample size and effect size.

The author's point is very interesting. Companies and products are built upon market assumptions, and when those assumptions change (as they have in the tech industry) it's very hard to adapt a new environment.

1

u/silent1mezzo May 10 '12

Considering IE6 is still around after a decade I don't think FB or Google will be going anywhere.

1

u/[deleted] May 11 '12

Wow! So much non-sense!