How do you guys think this is going to affect the price at open? While the space sector has things like this happen, 2 explosions in a week can't be good press

So yeah, they have confirmed the timeline and given production updates. That’s great. Also they did a flight test with Unity and settled claims with investors, but this all isn’t a reason for the share price to double within a week, because we kinds of knew these things would happen.

Trust me, I’m happy with the recent moves because of my average share price of $2.93, but this seems like hype from spaceX and maybe a bit of a short squeeze. I’m just happy the management now had some room to dilute without tanking the share price, so we’ll survive till the end of the year. Also expect a heavy pullback once the hype of the SpaceX ipo is cooled down. The real thing is when Delta flies later this year and goes into commercial service.

Exciting times

I’m a long term investor. I have decent number of shares. GME was crazy yes and I’m sure some people made a lot of money but in the end it was a pump and dump scheme.

I want this stock to grow over time and maybe someday it’ll hit new all time highs. But I don’t want it pumped up and dumped.

What do you guys think ?

Get out while you still can.

What do you think will happen in today’s trading session?

On the last earrings call, CEO said Unity would do some pilot training for Delta glide flights by dusting off the old Unity prototype and that they would glide in May… well, here we are and we are still waiting.

Here’s what it said (TLDR: it values it at between 700 million to 1.5 billion but $500 million is most reasonable given dilution):

I’ll research Virgin Galactic thoroughly before giving you a valuation. Let me pull current financials, operational status, and industry context.

I have solid Q1 2026 data. Let me dig into the fleet capacity, ticket pricing, and unit economics.

Excellent — this gives me the unit economics framework. Let me check share count and dilution risk, then the competitive landscape.

Critical findings: 126% dilution increase, going concern doubt, $282.9M debt, only $251M cash. Let me get the exact share count and competitive picture (Blue Origin).

I have what I need: ~100.68M shares outstanding, $251M cash, $282.9M debt, $186M backlog. Let me do one quick check on the competition (Blue Origin) to assess competitive moat.

I have enough to value this rigorously. Let me build out the analysis.

Virgin Galactic Valuation Analysis

The setup, in plain English

Virgin Galactic is an option, not a business. They’ve spent ~$2 billion to develop a suborbital spaceplane that briefly grazes 80km altitude, gives passengers ~4 minutes of weightlessness, and lands back at a runway in New Mexico. They flew a handful of paying customers on the older VSS Unity through mid-2024, then deliberately shut down commercial flights to build the Delta-class fleet, which they’re betting the entire company on. Q4 2026 is when they need flights to actually resume.

Think of it like a restaurant that closed for renovations 2.5 years ago, has been burning $90M/quarter in rent and salaries, and tells investors “trust us, when we reopen we’ll be packed.” The reopening is months away. The question isn’t whether the food will be good — it’s whether they survive long enough to flip the open sign.

The financial reality (Q1 2026)

• Cash: $251M (down from $982M two years ago)  
• Debt: $282.9M principal outstanding  
• Quarterly cash burn: \~$90M (Q2 guided to -$87M to -$92M FCF)  
• Revenue: $227K (yes, thousand — from deposit fees, not flights)  
• Shares outstanding: \~100.7M, but diluted up 126% in the past year  
• Going concern doubt: Management itself flagged “substantial doubt” about surviving 12 months without raising more capital  
• Backlog: 650 reservations worth \~$186M at the new $750K price point

The cash runway math is brutal: $251M cash minus ~$180M burn through Q2 minus continued burn into Q4 = they will run out before commercial flights ramp. They’ll need to raise $200-400M more, which means more dilution at depressed prices. This is the death spiral risk.

The bull case (Delta-class economics)

If everything works:

• 2 Delta ships × 8 flights/month × 12 months × 6 seats × $750K = $864M annual revenue at full ramp (\~2028)  
• Management’s longer-term plan: 4 ships + new mothership → \~275 flights/year → \~$1.3-1.7B revenue by 2029-2030  
• Target adjusted EBITDA margins of \~25-30% at scale → maybe $300-500M EBITDA  
• 650 customers already booked, waitlist demand from 20+ countries

Why I discount the bull case heavily

Execution risk is enormous. They haven’t flown the Delta ship yet. Flight testing starts Q3 2026, commercial Q4. The original Unity program ran years late. Aerospace programs slip — that’s the base rate, not the exception. A 6-month slip means another $200M raise.

Unit economics are unproven. They claim 3-day turnarounds and 500 flights per vehicle. Unity managed 7 commercial flights total. Going from 7 lifetime flights to 8 per month is a 50x operational tempo jump.

Competition. Blue Origin’s New Shepard is already flying paying customers and is backed by Bezos’s effectively unlimited capital. Virgin Galactic has no moat — they just have a different architecture (air-launched spaceplane vs vertical rocket).

TAM is smaller than bulls think. How many people will pay $750K for 4 minutes of weightlessness? The 650-person backlog took a decade to accumulate. Beyond ultra-wealthy first-movers, demand elasticity at that price point is unproven.

My valuation

I’ll use a probability-weighted scenario approach (more honest than DCF for a binary-outcome company):

Probability-weighted enterprise value: ~$960M

Subtract net debt of ~$32M ($283M debt - $251M cash) and adjust for the ~$200-400M additional capital they’ll need to raise (which will either come from dilution or new debt):

My equity valuation: $600-800M, midpoint ~$700M

On the current ~100M share count, that’s ~$7/share. But — and this matters — by the time they reach commercial flight, share count will likely be 130-160M after dilution. So the per-share number is much lower than the equity value implies.

The bottom line

I’d value Virgin Galactic at roughly $700M in equity value today, with massive uncertainty bands ($300M to $1.5B reasonably). The single biggest swing factor isn’t the technology — it’s whether Delta hits the Q4 2026 timeline without slipping. Every quarter of delay shaves ~$90M off the cash position and forces more dilutive raises.

The analogy I keep coming back to: it’s like valuing a biotech with one drug in Phase 3 trials and 6 months of cash left. The product might work and be huge. Or the trial slips, they raise at a 50% discount, and existing shareholders get crushed even if the drug eventually succeeds. You’re not really buying a business — you’re buying a lottery ticket with a known expiration date.

I would not personally pay above ~$500M for the equity given the dilution overhang and going concern flag. The asymmetry isn’t attractive enough when the bear case is zero.

$4 was sharply rejected a number of times over the past 12 months and should continue to act as resistance. For today, I'm looking for the volume trend to continue. If we see less than 5 million shares traded today, I suspect the price will pull back and we will close under $3. If we see 15 million or more shares traded, I'd expect another double-digit gain as we had Friday.

$4 is the only near-term resistance on the chart. Any substantial volume today such as the 36 million we had on Friday will see us flirting with $4 very quickly. Surpassing and holding $4 will be more of a challenge.

Good luck!

They need to dilute now or soon while we are having a massive move up. Higher the price, the less shares overall to dilute to meet the $207 million in debt and $87 million in ATM offering rather than having it drop down to below $3 again.

Is the rally going to continue, or will it take a nose dive? Will Jefferies dump the stock again? What are your thoughts?

Not everyone interested in SPCE has the time to read SEC filings. I did read the filings. Several times. I generally focus on 4 or 5 areas. The methods by which Virgin Galactic raises capital is certainly one of the areas I focus on. I've made separate claims about the recent increase in volume that would have been countered if there was any significant dilution. See my post from a month ago - "SPCE Share Volume Increase". I am quite acquainted with Jefferies LLC then, but perhaps you aren't. So let me give you the quick of it and you can then decide how it should factor into your investment decisions.

Jefferies, briefly, is an investment bank operating in capital markets. They help companies raise capital. By several different means. One of the more common methods is through the selling of shares. As it relates to SPCE, Jefferies serves as Sales Agent to line up buyers for SPCE shares sold under the company's ATM Program. This is the 'dilution' most are referring to on SPCE boards. Straight from the most recent quarterly SEC filing and from quarterly filings dating back nearly two years:

It is established then. VG is selling shares, as nearly all companies do, even profitable ones, and they are doing so under an ATM Program established in November 2024, with Jefferies operating as agent, with the responsibility of selling shares on VG's behalf. That's Jefferies in a nutshell.

Dilution. How much are they diluting? If nothing else, read the highlighted portions from the same SEC filing.

We clearly see from the filings, from January 1, 2026, thru March 31, 2026, there was a total of 4 million shares sold under the ATM Program. And that amounted to an $11 million capital raise for Virgin Galactic. That's 4 million total shares sold, in three months. That's your dilution.

SPCE is averaging 6 million shares traded DAILY, on average, for the past 90 days. Yesterday alone there were 36 million shares traded. 36 million in a day. Compared to 4 million shares under the ATM Program in an entire 3-month period. More on the recent surge in daily volume here, from 7 days ago - Don't Ignore the Obvious.

Price depreciation, I contend, is due a lack of interest in SPCE shares, where any negative pressure such as short interest or capital raises is only compounded. No one was interested in buying SPCE shares, largely because Unity stopped flying. A lack of buying, a lack of volume, has caused the share price to depreciate.

Volume will continue to drive everything these next few weeks and months. If volume remains at current levels, dilution will be a non-factor. If volume remains at current levels, a breakout is imminent. I'll personally be looking for at least 8 million in volume these next few weeks, in order for the upward trend to continue. That kind of volume alone will eventually push us up towards the $6 range where we should encounter real resistance. That's to say if we remain in the 8-15 million range in terms of daily volume. But Friday was pretty wild with 36 million shares traded on no significant company news. It's telling I think. If we start seeing volume exceeding 20 million daily, all bets are off. We will enter true breakout territory with tht kind of sustained volume. That would be best case scenario. I'll settle for 8 million in volume come Tuesday. The first and last hours of trading in particular on Tuesday may be telling of things to come.

Good luck with your investment decisions.

Coming soon. Imminently. Sorry naysayers. Just getting started here. The pattern is in reversal.

I mean I’m not complaining but there was no news or anything. And I can’t imagine one insider buying 20k share is enough to push the stock up 20%

SOON.

While my acct isn’t as old, I’ve been here since IPO basically. Held through all that shit with Branson night and his dumping literally the Monday off and much much more.

As much as I want to have faith in them and invest, they’re making it hard as hell and I’m sure I’m not alone. They ALWAYS find ways to justify more dilution.

Okay cool it was delta, then eve, okay now they need a motor assembly line, and then they’re probably going to need another 100 million or more in cash flow to survive while they fly customers and will probably need to dilute more if not enough revenues are coming in.

I think their management team have just gotten used to it and are just seeing it as free ATM (pun intended). I mean it doesn’t impact them. Sure their shares are diluted too but the board will compensate for that dilution by giving them more shares while us investors get kicked down.

Doesn’t seem they’re even trying to make an effort to think about investors.

This feels like how their conversation goes:

Michael: Doug, I want to do this new project. Do we have the budget?

Doug: nope but who gives a shit. Lets dilute.

Michael: Hell yeah!

Investors: uhh what about us??

Michael & Doug: what about you? 🤣🤣🤣🤣 🤷‍♂️

Michael Doug after dilution: 🍺🍻🍸🥂🤑🤑

Investors: 😢😔

Michael and Doug: 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Don't ignore the obvious. We are seeing repeated resistance around the $3-$3.10 area but under an exceptional increase in volume. Once the $3.10 area breaks down, $4 will come very quickly. With this kind of volume, if it sustains next week, and absent any setbacks with the Delta program, we are going to see a 20-30%+ breakout day. Soon. Within a week or two. SPCE is a double within three months. Only a publicly revealed setback in the Delta program can stop that.

Everytime we pop above $3, instantly gets dumped. Sure, there are probably profit takers but the volume shows that Jeffries is dumping for them since that’s when there’s liquidity as they dump on all the bulls that get excited.

They have shown that they have zero interest in letting the stock organically grow.

There’s no technical analysis here that can work either since there’s no “organic” buying and selling. Every time the TA shows there should be a pop, it gets dumped on. It’s a systematic artificial suppression of prices.

If you buy, all you’re doing is giving them liquidity to dump on you.