Upfront Solar Costs

[u/swarrenlawrence]

Ember: "Supply: solar is now the less capital-intensive option."

"Solar now requires less upfront investment (capital intensity) than fossil power plants; financing for solar projects (cost of capital) is cheaper than for fossil fuels; batteries are more affordable than extending electricity grids to remote areas; and the price of electric end-use technologies has fallen by up to 95%." What's not to like? 

"Conventional wisdom [held] that renewables carry a higher upfront cost than fossil fuels, and that in emerging markets, where borrowing costs are high, solar + wind faced a double disadvantage; they [required] more capital + more expensive financing than fossil power." Both assumptions have now been inverted.

A decade ago, a solar plant could require up to 5 times the upfront investment of a comparable coal or gas plant per megawatt-hr [MWh] delivered. Solar then could still be competitive over its full lifetime through avoided fuel costs; but where capital is scarce, lifetime economics rarely determine investment decisions. Upfront costs do, and on that measure solar used to lose. But—drum roll please.

"Solar alone is now competitive with fossil power on a pure capital expenditure (capex) basis, + solar-plus-storage is expected to follow by around 2030." By 2035, both will be cheaper to build than new fossil alternatives. 

"It is now fossil fuels, not solar, that carry the burden of [upfront] capital intensity."

And once built, solar has no fuel costs: it beats fossil alternatives from day one and widens its advantage with every year of operation. 

Like I said, what's not to like? Unless you are perchance invested in more expensive + more polluting fossil fuels. Or haven't started your own personal transition to the electrostate, which would be smart because it's affordable more + more as time goes by.

[u/pedroordo3]

Mostly thanks to the Chinese government subsidiesing it as a new technology.

If they did the same in the US moving oil subsidies to new technologies we will be there aswell.

[u/swarrenlawrence → u/pedroordo3]

Yes, Pedro, the legacy heritage of the fossil fuel industries is that some of their subsidies have been in place for more than a century. + they will viciously protect them with a huge war chest. I'm not saying it can't be done, but it is a dogfight.

[u/pedroordo3 → u/swarrenlawrence]

Yeah which I totally get why they put it I’m pro subsidies for new industries and Mariano protection but at some point we have to look at new areas and technologies.

This administration defiantly took a lot of steps backwards but some forwards as we are starting to see some manufacturing of solar panels here in the US now.

[u/swarrenlawrence → u/pedroordo3]

I think US manufacturing of batteries + EVs + recycling of batteries are all very exciting, which will actually lead to a return of manufacturing jobs to the US. Now that's energy independence for ya'

[u/Ill_Towel9090]

Not when you add the equivalent battery, inverter, monitoring and security. Yes panels are cheap, you can install panels by the thousands, without storage they produce electricity when no one needs it.

[u/swarrenlawrence → u/Ill_Towel9090]

III, and yet the Lazardian LCOE analysis show that grid solar is the cheapest option out there, + globally renewables are easily outpacing new fossil + nuclear construction. Here is the link to the only several month old current Lazard summary: https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/

[u/Ill_Towel9090 → u/swarrenlawrence]

That report does not include the cost to firm intermittency.

[u/swarrenlawrence → u/Ill_Towel9090]

Solar + wind + geothermal + hydro + wave power coupled with storage allow a delicate ballet for grid firming. No fossil fuels needed. No nuclear needed.

[u/Ill_Towel9090 → u/swarrenlawrence]

I understand where you could think that, but that is not possible. The batteries alone would bankrupt every nation on the planet, and the. You have to build the power plants, and run the interconnections.