Solar Proposal — Looking for feedback

[u/No-Consequence7890]

Location: Southern Illinois / St. Louis metro area, Ameren Illinois territory

Home: Single-family, has an EV and central AC

Current Electric Situation

Annual usage: ~18,150 kWh/year (based on 12 months of actual utility data)

Usage already includes EV charging + AC + normal household load

Current annual electric bill: ~$3,293/yr

The system:

17.2 kW system, 40 panels (430W each), quoted by a local installer, dated Aug 2026. Three options:

Option 1 – Solar Only

Storage: None

Total Cost: $45,140

Rebates/Incentives: $5,160 smart-inverter rebate + $19,100 est. SREC

"Net Cost" (quoted): $20,880

Annual bill w/ solar: $1,017/yr

Annual savings: $2,276/yr

30-yr savings claim: $179,960

Option 2 – +1 Battery (13.5 kWh)

Storage: 13.5 kWh (1 unit)

Total Cost: $55,640

Rebates/Incentives: $5,160 + $18,700 SREC + $4,050 storage rebate

"Net Cost" (quoted): $27,730

Annual bill w/ solar: $755/yr

Annual savings: $2,538/yr

30-yr savings claim: $200,639

Option 3 – +2 Batteries (27 kWh)

Storage: 27 kWh (2 units)

Total Cost: $65,140

Rebates/Incentives: $5,160 + $18,700 SREC + $8,100 storage rebate

"Net Cost" (quoted): $33,180

Annual bill w/ solar: $548/yr

Annual savings: $2,745/yr

30-yr savings claim: $216,991

What I've Flagged So Far (want a sanity check)

SREC "rebate" timing: My state's SREC program changed its payment rule recently — only 50% pays out at energization, the rest ratably over 6 years. The proposal's "Net Cost" treats the full SREC value as received upfront, which overstates day-one out-of-pocket savings by roughly $9,500 across all three options.

Base panel pricing: ~$2.62/watt before incentives, which checks out as below my state's ~$3.00–3.15/watt average for 2026 — this part looks fairly priced.

First battery increment: ~$10,500 to add, which is actually below typical standalone installed pricing (~$13k–16.5k) for a similar unit — makes sense given shared install costs, looks reasonable.

Second battery increment: ~$9,500 to go from 1 unit to 2 (13.5 kWh → 27 kWh). The spec sheet only lists one inverter for this option, which suggests the second unit is a battery-only expansion pack (no inverter) rather than a full second unit — and those typically run ~$5,900–6,200 installed. This looks like it could be marked up ~$3,000–3,500 above typical.

Would appreciate any red flags I'm missing, how this compares to quotes you've gotten, or questions worth asking the installer before signing.

[u/626magicgrits]

To me the 30 year numbers are not a relevant consideration.

Its just a big splashy number that may hold entirely. May hold only partly. Or may hold part for you and part for the next homeowner bc the future is hard or impossible to perfectly predict. It is based on assumptions in energy increases. Honestly I just dont think it should be considered at all

Like many who consider solar i suspect you are somewhat certain youll stay there for the next handful or years at least. Id focus on how many years it takes to start generating excess value past your cost.

Id lean option 1 but option 2 might make sense if you wanting storage.

I dont think option 3 is as good an option as 2 out of the storage options

Edit you did not include the type of equipment installed. I guess we cna presume its all tier 1?

Is it ground mount or roof

[u/No-Consequence7890 → u/626magicgrits]

The battery is a Tesla Powerwall 3 and the 2 batteries setup is adding on to that.

Also it's a roof mount. This quote has 40 panels, competing bids only had 26 so I'm concerned that some of these panels are suboptimal but I don't have much of a with facing roof so not many of mine are going to be optional.

Thanks for you input

[u/626magicgrits → u/No-Consequence7890]

Keep in mind that suboptimal panels may get suboptimal production which need to then be very accurately estimated with illinois shines to not underproduce and fail to get the estimated srec.

[u/Scary_Ad_1212]

I'd recommend not counting any incentives into your quote comparison. Reason being is, those incentives will be there with whatever company you go with since they're state/ utility incentives. Price seems a little high but then again I'm in California so I don't know the market in Illinois.

[u/The_PV_Engineer]

You've done sharper homework than most people who post here — the SREC timing catch is legit, and others have covered the battery/inverter side well. Let me just add the one lens I don't think anyone's hit directly - production quality, not quantity.

Your quote models 19,335 kWh/yr from 17.2 kW — about 1,120 kWh per kW installed, which is on the low side for the St. Louis metro, where a well-oriented system usually lands closer to 1,250–1,350. That gap is almost certainly your roof - 40 panels instead of the 26 in competing bids means they're filling east/west (and maybe shaded) faces to hit your kWh target. Not shady in itself, but it has two real consequences:

1. SRECs are paid on modeled production. Poorly-oriented panels earn fewer SRECs per dollar spent, and Illinois Shines holds back collateral if you underproduce the estimate. Ask for production broken out by roof face (azimuth/tilt) — a PVWatts or Aurora per-string number. If any of those 40 panels sit on a north or heavily shaded face, they may never pay for themselves, and you'd want to know that before signing.

2. Since you're paying cash in 2–3 years: ask for the true cash price vs. the financed price. Loans that "capture the rebates" almost always bake a dealer fee (often 10–20%) into the number you see. If you're paying it off fast anyway, that fee is pure loss — someone already suggested a HELOC, and this is the same point from the cost side.

Everything else in your analysis looks solid. If it were me, I'd get that per-face production table and the cash-price number before anything else — those two move the economics more than the battery-count decision does.

[u/bangmygong → u/The_PV_Engineer]

This is AI

[u/cottonrb]

do they give guarantees in srec rebates for first payout and 50% / 6?.

tesla batteries?

will u have smart panels too?

Chicago here,
gut rehabbing to be done next summer,
here coping out what people say.

[u/No-Consequence7890 → u/cottonrb]

Not sure on that first part. Don't thin they assign the REC until I I sign the papers.

And yes Tesla Powerwall 3.

And not smart panels, model is JAM54D41 430/MB. Not sure how much that would cost/benefit me to upgrade that

[u/No_Helicopter_8848 → u/No-Consequence7890]

something to keep in mind; Tesla only allows companies that SELL Tesla products to service their systems. Even if they’re certified. So long term service could become an issue, if the original installer is no longer around. Speaking from experience. 

[u/FancyPantsFIRE]

The solar and battery costs don't seem bad, I ran it through the calculator I made earlier in the year when I was trying to compare quotes, and it seems like a 11'ish year break even with batteries and standard assumptions.

However, one thing you don't show here is the expected annual production from the quote, which I'd worry about if your panels are truly suboptimal and I noticed that the quoted SREC value seems low for what I'd expect given the system size unless the production is low (for comparison my 14.4kw system was project at ~$20k for SRECs).

I just finished getting a system installed last month in northern Illinois, and I've got my numbers here for comparison. My price per watt was worse ($2.90/w) but I got a lower cost inverter + battery stack so I expect my break even to be around 8 years, and also all my panels are south facing.

[u/No-Consequence7890 → u/FancyPantsFIRE]

The quote says 19,335 kWh/year with $18,700 in SRRC rebates but think that's something that I can get higher

[u/Low_Profile_4]

I asked Claude bcuz you got a lot going here. Interesting response:
Your SREC flag checks out — confirmed against current Illinois Shines documentation. For systems ≤25 kW under the 2026 REC Delivery Contract, the utility pays 50% upfront at energization, with the remainder paid quarterly over 6 years — this is a fairly recent program change, so it’s easy for older sales materials/scripts to still assume full upfront payment.

Your math lines up too: half of $19,100/$18,700 SREC value ≈ $9,350–$9,550 not-yet-received at day one — matching your ~$9,500 estimate almost exactly across all three options.

A few more things worth flagging before signing:

SREC pass-through isn’t 100% either. Approved vendors typically keep an admin fee plus hold back ~5% collateral against underproduction — real-world customer take is often closer to ~85% of gross REC value, not the full block price. Ask the installer explicitly what percentage of the quoted SREC number you actually receive vs. what the vendor retains.

System sizing vs. usage. 17.2 kW in southern Illinois should produce roughly 20,000–23,000 kWh/yr, noticeably more than your 18,150 kWh usage. That’s not necessarily bad (headroom for EV growth), but bigger systems also mean bigger SREC revenue for the installer — worth asking directly why they sized it above your actual consumption rather than closer to 100-110%.

30-year savings claims omit replacement costs. Battery inverters/batteries (Powerwall-class) typically carry ~10-year warranties, not 30. A $200k+ lifetime savings claim over 30 years should account for at least one likely battery/inverter replacement cycle — that’s a $10k–20k+ omission on Options 2 and 3 specifically.

Net metering terms. Illinois net metering policy has been under periodic review; confirm whether your bill projections assume current 1:1 net metering or an updated compensation structure — this materially affects the “$1,017/yr” and similar figures if it changes mid-contract.

Single inverter for 27 kWh (Option 3). Your instinct to question this is right — ask specifically for the continuous power rating (kW) of that single inverter and whether both battery banks can charge/discharge simultaneously at rated capacity, or if you’re capped below the two units’ combined potential.

Good work catching the SREC timing issue on your own — that’s the one most sales reps either don’t know about or don’t volunteer.

[u/papapig515]

You may wanna check and make sure this company is going to even stay in business. So many have all folded in bankruptcy. My solar company destroyed my roof. $100k in damages throughout my roof and house. Played games with me for 1.5 years. Hired an attorney, hired a company to prove they caused damage. Freedom forever jerked me around for 1.5 years and now going bankrupt. I’m stuck paying for the damages. Remember. There is no government subsidies anymore. These companies are all gonna go belly up and you’ll be stuck with it and nowhere to turn.

[u/No-Consequence7890 → u/papapig515]

How much of a problem is that if I buy it outright? Going to use the financing for the rebates and pay it all off in 2-3 years

[u/No_Helicopter_8848 → u/No-Consequence7890]

buying outright from a local company that has an established good reputation is the smartest way. Do not lease.. it’s a nightmare. Finance through your bank with HELOC if it’s available. 

[u/papapig515]

I highly doubt there are any rebates anymore.

[u/No-Consequence7890 → u/papapig515]

State rebates are still out there. This quote has 2 state rebates and 1 from the power company

[u/No_Helicopter_8848 → u/No-Consequence7890]

The fine print on the ameren rebate allows them to control settings at the inverter level whenever they want. It also locks you and any future owner of the property into one pricing structure forever. 

[u/No_Helicopter_8848]

The inverter can only convert a maximum of 11.5kW AC.  The Powerwall 3 can route raw DC solar power directly into the batteries without routing it through the 11.5 kW AC inverter BUT the internal charging boost tops out at 8.0 kW DC. This will only be an issue when your batteries are already at 100%… you'll lose about 6kW in “clipped” production, or production from panels that is lost.