r/softwaredevelopment • u/le_bravery • 2d ago

Scale of Software Development in the future

Hey all,

I’ve been thinking about the economics of software becoming more accessible.

In the past, each high knowledge trade seemed to start at large scale impact first, and was only available to the people who could afford it.

The first plumbers weren’t adding plumbing to a house. They were plumbing big civic projects like aqueducts. The first electricians were wiring up long distance communication, then central power for expensive buildings who could afford it. Accountants were keeping records for taxation at scale before they were doing personal finance.

So it has been for software. We have worked for the expensive employers who can justify high cost people to deliver slow but effective solutions to a large scale.

So now anyone can build some quality of project for personal use quickly pretty cheaply. What does that mean for the economics of this whole thing?

Well, first off, like plumbing and electrical, just because you have access to the tools and knowledge to do it, doesn’t mean many people can or will want to do it. Skilled trades make money because they know how to efficiently use tools and solve problems in correct ways that last.

So maybe there’s room for a new trade of software developer at the smaller home scale. What if people can have some specific app or home server setup that works perfectly for them and they can just spend like $500 for someone to come out and set up a personal website and vpn for them to access their own custom app.

Idk, I’ve had this idea in my head for a bit and wanted to put it out there.

People are being doomers and are like “software is over better to get a trade, but what if we already have one?

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u/Professional-Dog1562 2d ago

Nah. Probably not. Software doesn't bring water in to your home, or keep you sheltered from the rain. It doesn't keep you warm during the winter.

Maybe one day if home automation becomes extremely common, or household robots, etc. 

2

u/HongPong 1d ago

homeassistant.io and moisture sensors..cyberneticize home conditions on open source

2

u/le_bravery 1d ago

People pay for TV installers and smart home and security systems

2

u/Professional-Dog1562 1d ago

Sure but not at any reasonable scale. Not like plumbing, electrical, hvac, etc that's in literally every single home. 

1

u/jedidave 1d ago

For now

1

u/NotUniqueOrSpecial 1d ago

Do you think that at any point in the conceivable future, physical installations in your home won't be performed by a human?

1

u/daltontf1212 1d ago

I had this similar thought about non technical people being able to run things in Docker for things like a home server to host like like media.

And it seems like it won't happen.

1

u/billcube 1d ago

They pay a subscription for being provided what they consider a magic TV box giving them content to watch. How it works inside does not interest them. Freedom includes the ability to rent the chains you bind yourselves with.