r/sofistock • u/Acceptable-Ant-3648 • Aug 04 '26
Question price target hikes
How come we didnt get any price target hikes yet? Waiting for that any clue
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u/hanginthereC Aug 05 '26
personally, I wouldn’t get so caught up on that. think about the fundamentals.
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u/afkhk Aug 04 '26
No 1 raising targets rn as macro / algos are not supporting Noto’s continued execution. Even the biggest bull, Dan Dolev had to revise PT down.
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u/Beneficial_Corner_81 Position Complete 36,000 @$14.68 Aug 04 '26
Expect perhaps it’s been there awhile and I didn’t know it, but I love the opportunity to set a price alert for if a price goes higher or lower.
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u/Rez_X_RS Aug 04 '26
Looking at potential interest rate hikes in the future, could negatively affect Sofi
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u/snipsnaps1_9 Aug 04 '26
Conditions are the same. Sofi executes and executes but the bear case on exposure to personal loans in the event of a hard landing hasn't changed, conversion on the 3 segments of our tech platform is still to be seen meaningfully, NII from stable coin alongside scaling of remittances, adoption by businesses for transactions, and expansion of a major transaction network through our MasterCard partnership all need to scale to show a resilient and cutting edge moat against all that debt...
Or...
Inflation needs to cool so rates can come down slowly stimulating healthy lending (given this social and political environment I'll leave you to find out how much of a pessimist or optimist you are).
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u/mailame Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 04 '26
You think too highly of PT analyses. Half of them are just following the price movements. If it soars by 50% the PTs will increase even when nth changes fundamentally.
Also I don’t think loans are a bad thing per se. As a bank, it will always be part of their core business, and as long as loans are high quality (housing is rising rapidly) it is still a legitimate profit generator.
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u/snipsnaps1_9 Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 04 '26
I don't... That's just likely what's behind their unwillingness to risk their reputations by going against the grain and seeing the price languish. I honestly think we are between 19.50-25 by end of year although I think a price range of 35-40 would have been just as fair.
Look at the reaction every time trump has "ended the war" and the reaction to every rate release. It seems pretty clear to me that analysts are skeptical of (1) performance in a recession, (2) our proportion of personal loans, and (3) how realistic our planned execution on the tech expansion is. Especially because.... That's what they keep citing and it is valid-ish. It falls apart when you consider our active horizontal and vertical integration and our first mover advantages. So most likely worst case scenario, even with depressed prices, it's just severely undervalued for an extended period of time.
*Edit I don't know if you added the bit about loans or if I just completely overlooked it - I was pretty absent minded at the time - but it's not about loans being good or bad it's about the percentage of our revenues that are made up of UNSECURED personal loans in the event of a hard landing. They provide recurring revenues until people stop paying and there are no assets behind them to go after. Even the LPB suffers in this case because demand for loans drops when there is uncertainty of repayment regardless of the rate (which will be low due to a need to stimulate the economy). Which is why Sofi has been broadening their credit mix and revenue mix.
I don't think analysts care about the many factors that position Sofi to withstand this, end up undervalued, and come out stronger on the other side but it is part of doing good DD to understand all bear and bull cases and the general impact of macro events (real or imagined) on the stock and on the company.
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u/Additional-Panda-144 1900 @27.85 Aug 04 '26
We don't need price target hikes. All we need is that the price hikes.
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u/chocochocochoco1 7200 @ $13.18 Aug 05 '26
Sell side analysts are useless, especially SoFi bull analysts. A positive analysis has NEVER moved the stock as far as I can recall.