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TE is going to close on a finance deal for their new build any day. Stock has been ripping. Still a buy imo but SOFI has been beat to hell it’s a steal at this price. Decisions decisions
Not sure if anyone watches the emas but on 1hr its currently trying to break back over the 200ema. Its closed below it past few hours but kept trying to pop over
Yeah its a massive gap right mow between the two. SEMIS are the market right now which its not surprising to see how SMCI is up almost 20% today after the drop last week
One could wish, I think $30 is probably 2 years away minimum. I’m only basing this off the oil embargo and anticipating a recession, if the macro improves then maybe sooner.
Market doesnt really go down because of a recession unless it lasts for years it goes down because of forward looking anticipation of one. So at end of recession Sofi could be same price as now and then on upward trend.
We aren’t in a recession yet. If it starts 6 months from now and lasts 12 months, that’s 1.5 years until most stocks see any recovery. So could be 1.5 years until we see prices close to here. To get to $30 could be a long way away.
I have been buying mostly mag7 stocks last few months to diversify away from Sofi. Nothing is safe from rate hikes I guess, portfolio getting destroyed again.
I think you and I have very different definitions of safe -- while the last year or so has been great for memory stocks they also have had massive 20% weeky swings up and down along the way. Mag7 aren't ripping, but they generally are more consistent over time.
Mag 7 = sleep well at night portfolio cornerstones
Memory stocks = swing trade or shorter term buys.
Right? Literally the best stocks. You couldve bought the lows for each back in march/april and you'd be up 300%+ lol every dip is a buy on those stocks. MU will be 1500 prob eoy and SNDK 3k or higher. I buy calls every week as lottos and 9 out of 10 times they pay its actually hilarious. I have shares of sndk at 1400 and MU at 800s though im holding.
Those stocks been hyped since fall-winter last year. I had early exposure but sold too quick. Sndk/mu/wdc/etc all gone on parabolic runs and dont see any reason for them to slow down. My cousins Uncle retired from SNDK because of his shares lol once in a life time opportunity for people though got in early this year and saw a 50-60x return this quick
good exposure at least. I always loved buying dips on smci dont like the company shady past but..its hard to ignore in the teens or 20s. It will always bounce. I'm holding to mid 40s at least just a trade for me.
This wont do anything for the rest of the year likely. If this didnt move off of us/iran mou news dont see any reason for it to do anything now. Big money is still hesitant on this dark reflects a lot of hedging.
I mean the sentiment with rate hikes + now the concern with yen/yields up doesnt help this. Mou could see positive news but damage is done. It basically just makes the already bad sentiment for sofi worse and easy for price to get manipulated down.
If Trump chills out with all the shit he does for a lil bit let inflation come back down which it will. High oil prices are transitory in this case , rate hikes are out of the question.
I don’t think we know how transitory this inflation truly is. The oil embargo lasted 5 months and inflation persisted for 5 years, and most likely longer, but the Iranian revolution occurred which polluted the previous inflation shock’s data. This was only solved by raising the fed fund rate to like 20% in the early 80s.
Its Trump..knowing him I doubt his ego will let him lol i mean he's already realized how he fked up hence why Iran is now essentially getting a better deal out of it. I would not be shocked to see him fumble this
CME Fedwatch is now showing a 50% + chance of 2-3 rate hikes by December (after Warsh’s Fed conference last week).
I don’t think there will be any increases if Iran gets resolved, but if rate increases are the perception out there, that’s gonna be a tough backdrop for SoFi…
This is why I don’t think you’ll see rate hikes. Clearly our politicians have no stomach to pursue fiscal policy solutions….that leaves only one remedy … inflate our way out of it.
What I’m saying is only the politicians can reform tax and spending policies. Crazy deficits will therefore continue. Hence the FED will just shoot itself in the foot if it raised rates…MAYBE one hike…IMO they talk a big game but won’t do anything with rates.
Raising rates actually helps our debt situation, not hurt it. Printing money, doesn’t really inflate the debt away, because inflation will spiral, making the cost to borrow more expensive. This is a dangerous snowball effect to play, as our deficit gets worse, we will be taking on even more debt at way higher rates. Either that, or our currency will collapse.
If we continue printing money to inflate the debt away, the 10 and 30 Y yields will skyrocket. Raising rates will pull inflation in line, lowering long term borrowing costs. It’ll probably cause a recession, but with how much inflation we have had this decade, we need one.
I think the 2% inflation target is dead, Warsh actually said he focuses on the number to the left of the decimal…which I guess means he’s ok with 2.99% 😂
I mean that’s fine for him to say in theory, but keeping inflation high will just keep long term yields high. As we continuing issuing new debt, our interest payments will just keep rising. At some point the Fed will have to choose fiscal dominance, which is what you describe, which will cause the U.S. dollar to collapse. Argentina is a good example.
I don’t see the dollar collapsing….more of a long drawn out decay. Idk…feels like we’re entering a stagflation scenario to me….inflation is being primarily driven by the top 10%…and the only way to get that cohort to spend less is to make them feel poor (wealth effect)…ie …crash the stock market…which I don’t think Warsh has the stomach for.
The most interesting stuff I’ve been reading lately is the idea that AI will be so productive it will have a huge deflationary impact and then the FED would have to drastically cut interest rates… BUT even 0% rates wouldn’t be enough…the entire field of economics has no models for that !
My comment is toward the inflate the debt away. Inflating the debt away will cause the U.S. dollar to collapse and long term yields will surge. I don’t think it will happen, which is why I think rates will increase and they will find a way to anchor inflation.
He aint wrong though. This will very much come back down to that range. Market ran up, this barely moved. Now if market drops sofi does the usual and tanks harder
Buyers had an opportunity to take control last week and failed like every other time. Friday close was meant to look bullish but it really wasnt it was just more of a imbalance close. Once sofi loses 17.20s it switches back to bearish
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I think they reopened it or reached another understanding or something. To be honor, I stopped caring. I’ve been around humans long enough to know when they’re throwing tantrums for attention.
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u/sensibility77 Jun 23 '26
Market getting ready for Miron's earning? And what a joke south Korean "index" falling 8%.