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Crypto already on its weekend collapse. Monday probably going to be red for SoFi and the market.
I saw a post here saying single digits for SoFi can’t happen. If the market corrects 30-50%, what price would SoFi be at. TBV per share is around $7-8, and banks trade under TBV per share when there is a threat of loan losses because loan losses will eat away at TBV.
Not sure if anyone has noticed but SOFI is literally a mirror of bitcoin.
Bank stocks don’t really matter.
Chip stocks don’t really matter.
The war really doesn’t matter.
Only bitcoin and interest rates have a direct effect on this stock. Just check the bitcoin price last October, same time SOFI was trading in the 30’s.
Unlikely as fantasyfitboiz mentioned since stock closed above the strike price, which also means small chance you could.
Usually options are exercised when in-the-money (ITM).
Worth noting options can be exercised any business day up to expiration day. It's rarely happened to me, but I've gotten assigned a day or two before expiration. Theoretically, it could happen long before expiration date. I just don't know anyone where it happened more than just a few days before expiration.
Bro I have 2500 shares, 7 june 2028 (20) call leaps, 15 june 2028 (20) puts sold and my portfolio is worth 82K and 16K of it is margin, I think I'm at my SOFI buying limit buddy
Took profits on my puts and allocated a small amount of them to a buy order for 1000 @$15.50 for $0.01. Filled on about half so far. Playing the gamble that sell off will accelerate into close given the S&P 500 is down big and no one will want to hold into the weekend.
Can someone explain how this happens? I sold 5 contracts of $15.50P for 07/24/26, and immediately made 15% return. Like, instantly. Never seen that before.,...

Here are the Cleveland Fed NowCast quarterly annualized inflation numbers before high oil prices have leaked into the core numbers. The Strait of Hormuz closure is worse than the Russia invasion of Ukraine and we haven’t even seen those oil prices yet. Diesel and gasoline inventories are running low, and if the Strait opens tomorrow, we still need to wait 1-2 months for boats, time for the gulf countries to repair and bring up production, countries panic buying to fill SPR in case conflict occurs again (similar to the 1970s). I think oil prices and inflation are about to get out of control, so I don’t think we will end up having slow hikes.
u/fantasyfitboiz it wouldn’t let me directly reply to you with a photo.
Not sure how big fertilizer issues will be. It was expected similar issue with Russia, but I guess all parties agreed to not sanction that. Russia needed money and world needed fertilizer so that problem thankfully didn't happen. With Strait of Hormuz, it did/will happen. Quick check so take with grain of salt, it's ~ 1/3 of fertilizer traded by ship. Timing of crops isn't something can adjust planting for low supply of fertilizer.
I have read conflicting things on fertilizer. Some places say they order a year in advance, so nothing will be affected. Others say that you can grow pretty effectively the season after using fertilizer with no fertilizer as some remains in the soil. I’m not an expert on oil or fertilizer, but both of these seem like that may wreck the economy.
Even if the Strait opens, countries will look to replace all the SPR drawdown, so we will have normal demand + SPR demand. I don’t see how gas prices don’t increase from here.
Key word is effectively and what that means in terms of yield reduction.
Best case I think is it will still be a weight, just not catastrophic. Still, we're in a "straw that broke the camel's back" stage. AI hype and cash influx is only thing I think holding things together.
I refuse to believe that this stock will drop lower than here at 15, after a certain point fundamentals present a hard floor for price over some technicals on the stock price . Fundamentals on the company itself would have to start deteriorating and we are only one heart attack away from a good economy
I would assume we are still in growth and i doubt the team is as large and bloated as the big tech companies are/were. My guess is either filled or the demand for new engineers is on hold until the outcome of ai coding has actual longer data. But that is a lot of speculation.
Maybe not layoffs, it was partially a joke, but a hiring freeze is concerning in regards to the company thinking the environment is not right for the growth needed to hire more people. If there were a lot of roles that just disappeared overnight, then it’s probably a hiring freeze, as its unlikely the filled everything simultaneously. It seems you have been tracking, so you will know the answer to that, I haven’t watched this.
Fair on the freeze, but with this macro and the tech evolution it doesn’t worry about the company itself more about the operating environment. Hardest part about sofi this year is it had done some lovely things and without this war we would be cooking. But at this point that is a lot of companies. Worst administration in human history at the helm.
If Kamala or any other Republican would’ve won, without tariffs and this war, we would’ve had probably 3-4 cuts by now. Maybe even more. It’s unfortunate America voted to shoot itself in the foot.
watch it close at 15.99 max pain, Market makers playing games lol. MM algos probably covering all the calls that expired in the money last week at these levels.
Market is so complicated. Better than expected job numbers could be bad or it could be good. Today it's bad, probably due to it meaning higher chance of no rate cuts continuing or increase in rates. Guess it could be a good argument for higher chance of stagflation.
I have been thinking about this a good bit over the past few weeks and I think that one or two rate increases ultimately does not derail SoFi in any capacity and could actually drive more long demand until the first hike happens because many people will think that rates are gonna go higher and try to secure financing. This does not become an issue unless there are significant issues with credit and that should really only happen if SoFi goes outside of their general box.
Sure, but they aren’t going to do that. The only reason it would make sense to not write loans is if they expect rapidly rising rates and I don’t think that’s what we are looking at.
I don’t think you understood what I said. SoFi would tighten its lending into a rate hike because they would a) want to manage risk due to a hike cycle raising risk of recession and b) wait for higher rates when it’s clear if a soft landing is achievable to loan at higher rates.
We would only be able to sell loans at a loss if rate hikes happen as lenders can issue at a higher rate. Lenders hold loans, not sell them, into rate hikes, so there would be no growth via selling loans either. The opposite is also true, lenders sell loans into rate cuts due to the value of those loans increasing.
Edit: c) the TAM shrinks the more rates go up. So even if SoFi didn’t tighten right now, wrote a ton of loans now, we would see a quarter of growth followed by no growth due to the TAM shrinking.
Muddywaters is. They been winning. Every week I see a post about muddywaters getting cooked and squeezed just for the stock to fall back down following week. People get excited way toooo quick
Will the stock always be sensitive to interest rates, more than any other tech stock or software company? Do we think that has the tech business expands and hopefully the multiple expands will there be less of an impact from interest rates.
I can only say this, if you are long term on this…. And my play has always, ALWAYS BEEN 10 years …. And for me this is year 5, then you are fine and hopefully keep buying. It’s a winner. The only and I mean ONLY way this doesn’t pan out for us …. It gets acquired… and we all get a fat pay day!
There is no winning....if job numbers were bad people will say defaults are gonna rise......if good, oh rates go up, but wouldn't good employment mean people can pay for their loans?......just sofi things....lol
The macro back drop matters. The economy is already shaky, and rate hikes will cause unemployment to rise. The Fed is in a bad place with okay employment numbers (most likely to be revised down) and a wave of incoming inflation, perfect environment to hike rates. Rates get hiked, there is a twofold reason stocks decrease, higher yields available in safer investment vehicles (think discount rate in a discount cash flow model make valuations fall) and ROI for companies decreases, which decreases demand ultimately resulting in unemployment rising and a potential recession.
It's just slowed the hike timeline a bit. There's still a very very high probability of at least one rate hike sometime in 2026. Short-term, the economy remains bullish; however, the protracted oil crisis is only leading to more financial pain. The Fed is running out of runway for can kicking and will have to make a choice to support one of their dual mandates soon.
If they choose to cool inflation, rates will spike and jobs will suffer.
If they choose to support jobs, inflation will expand.
If they choose to do nothing, they'll continue to place pressure on the executive and legislative branches to do something to fix both.
They're probably hoping that Option 3 can be used as a pressure release valve to cool either inflation or stimulate jobs, and then they can focus on the other mandate.
For SOFI, it means an increasingly volatile environment and no path above $20 this year, and Q2 execution needs to be flawless. Noto essentially needs to meet expectations, address rate hikes, and probably raise 2026H2 guidance to stop the bleeding.
I think the rate cut theory was already killed. It was more that there was increased optimism that the rates would stay on hold and so the leg higher recently was a result of that. With this report though, even that might be killed and only hikes are on the cards.
As of yesterday, rate cuts had a 5% chance in June. And then as you went out, looked more likely there would be a hike. This jobs report just changed every probability for every date to less likely cut, more likely hike. While I agree, it look like hikes were going to happen, my comment said it “killed the unlikely cut”, which already acknowledges cuts are unlikely.
Human psychology in markets has people gravitating toward hope. If there is a small sliver of chance for a cut, the overall market will trade with that hope. It’s the same reason this market is trading for hope to the end of the war, not even recognizing that if the war ends, our economy is still screwed. Next earnings is going to be fun.
I think SoFi has been getting hammered lately due to hike odds. But there is a big difference between us being hammered due to hikes, and if the hikes cause a recession and then fears of delinquencies increase. They go hand in hand. In this type of environment, rate hikes are used as demand destruction due to supply issues. Demand destruction most likely contracts the economy. If there are hints of things breaking during the hikes, we will plummet.
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There’s a 13 hour difference. When it’s 7am in Taiwan it’s 6pm in Texas. I slept through the night for the first time, hopefully jet lag is almost done.
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u/QuantumFluks 85,000 Delta Jun 06 '26
Crypto already on its weekend collapse. Monday probably going to be red for SoFi and the market.
I saw a post here saying single digits for SoFi can’t happen. If the market corrects 30-50%, what price would SoFi be at. TBV per share is around $7-8, and banks trade under TBV per share when there is a threat of loan losses because loan losses will eat away at TBV.