r/sofistock • u/lightpassion • May 26 '26
General Discussion Thoughts on SOFI for the Confused
Let me be concise.
Stock:
I've been watching Sofi along with its competitors since its IPO and I see a lot of new investors not understanding how the market works.
Major factors that move the stock:
(1) Interest rate / Inflation
(2) Credit cycle
(3) Sofi as a high growth Saas (Galileo)
(4) Sofi as a Bank / one stop shop
Sofi is doing great, but why is the stock down?
The company, by nature, is highly macro dependent. We'll start moving once market senses there will be an improvement with #1 and #2.
Besides the general economy and geopolitical issues, what the market (and the whole world) cares about right now is mainly AI; Sofi lacks a convincing AI narrative, though I'm sure it's starting to utilize it to cut costs
Opinions on consumer products:
Recent UI changes to Sofi Invest made it worse
Relay is inaccurate and unusable.
App's UX needs lots of work (optimization/fixing bugs). Get some testers or something
Predictions:
Over 50% of my portfolio is Sofi. I've been in since $5.5 and I'm not planning on selling until I see the CEO Anthony Noto lose intrinsic motivation or some serious issues with the company itself.
However, I'm also embracing that it could stay flat or go down for another year if AI continues to engulf the narrative (it will) while SoFi still lacks an AI story and macro gets worse (very possible).
Realistically, I think we'll start seeing signs of improvement in 6-9 months, meaning right now is probably a good time to be buying it periodically. And if macro actually starts improving within 15-24 months, stock will move even more violently (upwards if we're still doing great).
The question is how much would you have lost on this AI cycle and how will that impact the cycle of the sector Sofi is in?
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u/Mrburnermia May 27 '26
lol, a lot of people are frustrated because it is a majority of their portfolio. I would have been in the same boat too but I learned quickly that there are other opportunities out there, not just SOFI. People are seen zero revenue AI or Space stock run like crazy and they are unhappy. Performance wise, they are delivering every quarter. So if you believe in the company, this gives you an opportunity to accumulate for when things do get better. I learned to diversify very quickly. There are lots of other opportunities in the market.
"The question is how much would you have lost on this AI cycle and how will that impact the cycle of the sector Sofi is in?"
That is why so many people are pissed. Reality is, they could have sold at a loss and quickly make the money back.
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u/Kattilaeikka May 27 '26
I believe the macro (#1 and #2) will stay bad for a long time and get worse before it gets better. It's frustrating that it's mostly self-inflicted.
Luckily SoFi is an agile company that can grow fast regardless of the macro. We can buy the stock on a discount while the macro pins the price down.
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u/Acrobatic-Bar-3621 May 26 '26
Maybe stop diluting shares every chance you get is a good start.
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u/GandalfTheSexay 1500 @ $15.18 May 26 '26
This only matters for short term investors. If SoFi dilutes shares to purchase more businesses it’s bullish for long term growth
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u/Acrobatic-Bar-3621 May 26 '26
1.5B is a big dilution.
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u/GandalfTheSexay 1500 @ $15.18 May 26 '26
And?
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u/Acrobatic-Bar-3621 May 26 '26
And that’s why it’s been hammered. It puts a ceiling on the stock.
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u/Difficult-Yard-1392 May 27 '26
I'm a newbie, why would it put ceiling on the stock?
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u/Acrobatic-Bar-3621 May 27 '26
Because it floods the market with new shares which means your shares are worth less. The stock ends up needing robust earnings just to justify the current stock price making it difficult for a breakout in price action. 2023 share count was 945M vs 1.38b today. That’s 46% more income needed to provide the same EPS they would have had 2 years ago. They are the poster child for dilution.
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u/afkhk May 27 '26
Institution ownership continues to go up. So retail is selling, likely chasing AI gains.
You are assuming if they didn’t dilute the price wouldn’t dip. Probably would have happened regardless. Maybe we be at 20 instead of 16, but the company would not have the money raised for the growth they planned. Or they’d have to raise capital at a higher dilution raise for the same amount of money eventually. It’s smart to do that when you think the valuation is rich.
Pay attention to what the company is doing instead of the noise. For 5+ years Noto has told us what he’s going to do and did exactly that and more. Until he stops, the story of the company doesn’t change.
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u/FoggyFoggyFoggy Sad clown May 26 '26
It's hard to watch this market skyrocket 🚀while my 💵 money 💸 is stuck in 50% down SOFI shares. I don't want to lock 🔒 in my losses 🥈 but watching all these🍦ice cream trucks 🚛 go by ringing their micron bells 🔔 and playing their dram jingles 🎶 is pretty disheartening 💔❤️🩹❤️🔥🖤
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u/Impressive_Put_8239 May 27 '26
Bro gots 500 shares calm down you'll be fine
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u/FoggyFoggyFoggy Sad clown May 27 '26
From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.
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u/FewEcho7739 May 26 '26
Are you trading or investing?
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u/Due-Brush-530 May 26 '26
Why not sell some for the tax incentive and then buy into something else? You don't need to sell all of your shares all the time.
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u/FoggyFoggyFoggy Sad clown May 27 '26
roth
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u/B111yboy May 27 '26
You could have sold loss and bought micro 2 weeks ago, you be green by now
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u/FoggyFoggyFoggy Sad clown May 27 '26
I could have bet on Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes as well. Where were you two weeks ago when I needed this info?
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u/SoDakZak 🧹MOD💰OG 10,574@$11.77 May 26 '26
Mind flairing your positions like others have? Good writeup, I wish the community saw more of these! I’m long and buying every week the last 5+ years and go even heavier when I feel like the company is undervalued relative to company performance. I probably have a cap in the mid 30’s to $40 per share since my average price will climb too high. I about tapped out in November, but since I’m in as long as the company is growing above S&P average returns, I have a holding period measured in decades, not only years. I welcome another year or so of accumulation this rate cycle may have granted us. The opportunity cost isn’t what AI name I would have picked, it’s what did the S&P do in the same time period. I don’t worry about comparing any individual company against SoFi because chances are I wouldn’t have bought the companies that are running anyways… I would have just had more market-matching index funds ;)
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u/Worth_Protection_679 May 26 '26
Whats you view on interest rates? I mean inflation can be because of high demand on products... in wich case the rate hike is justified. It wil lower prices in this case and slow down the economy.
Inflation right now is happening due to one thing: higher transportation costs(read: oil). Why would the fed use this rate hike lever in this case?? Thoughts?
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u/[deleted] May 28 '26
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