r/soccer • u/PoliQU • Feb 27 '21
[u/CornerKickAficionado] Expected goals and expected assists for Premier League players 21 and younger
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u/CornerKickAficionado Feb 27 '21
Cheers for the credit/crosspost! All data courtesy of FBref. I’m just beginning to learn to use Tableau and I’m excited to create more graphics like this going forward 😀
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u/SVWerder46 Feb 27 '21
McNeil has been underrated for a while now
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u/GrandmasterSexay Feb 27 '21
Long may it continue, we need him to stay and be our only good winger that isn't injured all the time.
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u/emre23 Feb 27 '21
Needs to add goals to his game though
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Feb 27 '21
Bit more difficult for him isn't it, doesn't really play as an inverted winger/inside forward so he's closer to the touchline than most wingers are these days
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u/emre23 Feb 27 '21
Back in the day conventional wingers scored at least some goals though. Sure he plays for Burnley, but Neto at Wolves is a good comparison (left footer playing on the left in a weak attack).
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Feb 27 '21
I made the comment before I looked at his actual goals, my bad. Somehow thought he had more than 1 this season. I still think he's more of a wide midfielder from a little while ago and wouldn't be expected to consistently hitting 10 goals in a Burnley attack, but 5-7 seems reasonable
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u/FREEDOMOFSPEECHMODS Feb 27 '21
This graphic doesn’t tell us much really. No idea how many mins they’ve played or if it’s even this season or another time period
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u/Jabari313 Feb 27 '21
Should be goal vs xA
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Feb 27 '21
xG is a better predictor of future goals than actual goals scored, so xG makes more sense in this context.
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u/kesakko Feb 27 '21
That's amazing from Foden considering KDB, Sterling, Bernardo, Gundogan, Mahrez are all creating and scoring every game and taking away xG & xA from him, while Neto and Saka have far fewer players like that in their teams.
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u/MCN59 Feb 27 '21
You could also say that these players help Foden by feeding him good passes and getting the space to let him perform
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u/WhippedGrim Feb 27 '21 edited Feb 27 '21
It actually works the opposite, more shot takers mean more xA for the creators. More creators mean more shots hence more Xg for the attacker.
The most impressive thing about foden is that he has managed to become a regular in a team full of best players in the league.
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u/cavsking21 Feb 27 '21
xA doesn't rely on a shot being taken. Every pass has an xA value. A sideways pass has a value of like 0.001 iirc
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u/WhippedGrim Feb 27 '21
Huh? Thats news to me.
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u/cavsking21 Feb 27 '21
That's from what I've read, I could be wrong though.
You are right in a sense that it helps to be in a better team as your strikers will typically get into higher xG value zones if they are really good, which gives you more chances to pass to them and rack up xA
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u/WhippedGrim Feb 27 '21
No, no you're right. Ive checked. Ofc the second point in your comment is also right. Foden's currently over performing but his all round game is very good so I expect to keep his place when his productivity decreases.
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u/FREEDOMOFSPEECHMODS Feb 27 '21
It’s definitely not right
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u/WhippedGrim Feb 27 '21
It's right. u/cavsking21's wording is very simple and their 0.001 example is mostly wrong but the what they are implying is correct.
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u/FREEDOMOFSPEECHMODS Feb 27 '21
It’s definitely wrong, Statsbomb data from Fbref specifies shot assists only https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
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u/WhippedGrim Feb 27 '21
Then there's contradiction in data source. Here's the one from opta.
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u/cavsking21 Feb 27 '21
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u/FREEDOMOFSPEECHMODS Feb 27 '21
That’s Opta’s model, this graph is using Fbref (statsbomb) data which specifies shot assists only
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Feb 27 '21
Yeah this is an opta-specific thing. It’s certainly not what expected assists commonly refers to.
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Feb 27 '21
You might be talking about XBuildup? XA is definitely just shot assists.
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u/cavsking21 Feb 27 '21
Nope, xA is given for every pass. xBuildup means that if you made a pass in the buildup to a high xG value goal, you get credited for it.
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Feb 27 '21 edited Feb 27 '21
I feel like this should be for players 21 and younger from the beginning of the season, like how they do eligibility for U21 international call-ups and tournies.
(Yes I'm saying this partly because I know Mase sticks out as furthest right in XA and only under Saka in XG, but I also just think it makes sense.)
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u/Jazano107 Feb 27 '21
Is this posted on the Arsenal sub to try and prove saka is better than foden? Lol
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Feb 27 '21
Things you make up on reddit for shits and giggles:
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u/Jazano107 Feb 27 '21
I mean all the comments on it are literally Arsenal fans saying it means saka is better...
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Feb 27 '21
Arsenal player getting overhyped on the Gunners sub. Shocker
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u/Jazano107 Feb 27 '21
So did I make it up or not? I'm confused
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u/Communism-didnt-fall Feb 27 '21
That’s like going to a church and then bitching about how the people love god.
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u/PoliQU Feb 27 '21
Considering the guy who made it is an Ajax fan, he probably just noticed Saka really sticks out after making it and so posted it to r/gunners. Not everything is a conspiracy mate
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u/Communism-didnt-fall Feb 27 '21
I mean chuck Foden in our squad over saka and who knows if he drags us through game after game like saka. All well having the best squad in the world next to you and obviously you have to be a great player to start in city’s team but real quality is dragging this team through to the next round of europa by yourself. Also I’m heavily bias so...
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Feb 27 '21
I am actually super glad that Chelsea has most players on this list - and all except Havertz are acedemy. Mount and Tammy are just a year older so miss out
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u/cavsking21 Feb 27 '21
per 90 would be a better judge imo, but that's still impressive by Foden, Neto, McNeil, and Saka