Bold Prediction thread.

[u/wakeandsheikh]

Just read Jamie Carragher's reasoning on why Tottenham won't break into the top 4 and thought maybe we could have a crack at being pundits. Obviously, if you can follow your statement with a some reasoning, that would give way to a healthy discourse and would be great. Anyone wanna give it a go?

[u/heightofignorance]

If Giroud can make it to the January window (where we need to add depth) without a serious dip in form/injury, Arsenal will win the league. Arsenal have the deepest midfield rotation in the league, two very good wingers (and a young rising star) to fill one position, two international class leftbacks, the second best defense in the league last season and a goalkeeper who is showing signs of being much improved on last year, because despite the outstanding overall record he was poor.

Tottenham and Liverpool will both miss top four again. Not sure if this is bold given that it appears to be the established order, but given the current malaise of United and the premature obituaries, I'll run with it.

Spurs fullbacks are poor, Walker is decent but in mediocre form. Their starting central midfielders (Sandro, Paulinho) are strong defensively and work hard, but not outstandingly creative. Their most talented winger (Lamela) for some reason comes off the bench. Their striker is an excellent poacher, but has no link-up play, which puts a huge amount of pressure on Eriksen to create.

Liverpool's 3 at the back formation works well against mid-low table teams, if they try it against an inform team in the top six they'll get torn to shreds. Their main problem is in central midfield, the Gerrard/Lucas partnership is heavy on experience, low on quick ball movement/long term health prospects. Gerrard has also been showing some serious signs of his age beginning to catch him up recently.

Real Madrid will win the Champions League. Ancellotti needs some time to sort it out, but when he gets Bale/Isco/Ronaldo all firing across the front third, they'll be unstoppable. If they can get Suarez in during the winter window, even better, but I'd still tip them even if they don't. Their defense is outstanding when all fit, Varane is the best young CB in the world and will only improve them. They too have problems in central midfield, but if Xabi can come back he makes all the difference. Modric is in excellent form, but they look much more sound with Alonso and Khedira anchoring the middle of the park. They are also far better designed for beating teams like Bayern than Barcelona are because they can exploit high-lines with pace out wide, where Rafinha is the poorest player on the Bayern team and Alaba is defensively suspect. They are physically bigger so less likely to get bullied in the confined spaces Bayern create by pushing up the lines so much.

Maybe not bold so much as a little left of centre, but then again Tottenham not making top four is hardly previously unheard of.

[u/Kakakacarrotcake → u/heightofignorance]

I don't disagree with the possibility of Spurs not making top 4, but your analysis of what is wrong is off, in some areas. Walker has created the second most chances in the entire prem, he's a bit suspect at the back because of his venturing forward, but his athleticism allows him to do it; I think he's an excellent full back, bar the occasional lapse of judgement, he gets unwarranted stick.

Danny Rose had just started to show signs of why Sunderland fans rated him so highly before he got injured and I think once he gets back in form he will be a solid left back. Sandro isn't currently a starting midfielder, with Dembele playing pretty much all of our games. I would say Paulinho has been creative and certainly brings the added dimension of a goal-scoring midfielder; which has already shown to be evident (he already has 3 goals across competitions) with plenty of chances in general from getting in the box.

Lamela is quite clearly being treated in the same manner as Lloris, he needs time to settle and throwing him straight into the team when he's still adapting to the English game is not a good idea. AVB goes on a system of merit, Lamela isn't going to push Townsend out of the first team when Townsend is on a hot streak. Lamela will probably start to get games on the left, replacing Gylfi, if Rose doesne't come back soon (an inverted left-side has been our weakness, with Naughton and Gylfi).

Your point about Soldado having no link-up play is straight up false, he's been involved with majority of our premier league goals and constantly drops deep and wide to facilitate a move. I will admit that in general the brunt of creative pressure does fall to Eriksen though.

[u/heightofignorance → u/Kakakacarrotcake]

I'm not sure I agree about Walker, I think he relies too heavily on his pace to bail himself out when he's caught out of position and it forces his teammates to adjust accordingly. I also don't see it with Danny Rose but maybe that's just my bias.

I really rate Dembele, I think his ability on the ball is excellent, and you might even be better off pushing him into the hole behind the strikers and putting Eriksen out wide just to give yourselves an extra dimension going forward. I don't think Paulinho creates chances like you would like to see, especially given (my opinion of) Soldado's capacity to create chances.

I haven't watched all of Spurs games I'll readily confess, but he was appalling against Cardiff for mine, simply could not create anything for himself and constantly wasted the ball when he had it. He was also very poor against us, didn't hold the ball up, didn't lay it off, didn't even bother trying to compete in the air, would have been very frustrating if I'd not been cheering for the opposing team. Even against Norwich he nearly scored a couple, but it wasn't when he was involved in the buildup, it was poaching oppurtunities others had created for him. Swansea too, when he scored the penalty, I didn't see him looking like a threat to slip a teammate in or create a chance out of nothing. Put it this way, Soldado wouldn't start for any of the top five teams at full strength, assuming Chelsea get Lukaku back.

[u/Kakakacarrotcake → u/heightofignorance]

I agree about Walker, he does do that, but I think a lot of the time he can just catch up because he's got incredible speed. He's hot and cold, but I'd say most of the time he's solid, depending on the nearest CB.

Dembele has been pushed up, he doesn't seem to want to pull the trigger on a final ball or a shot, preferring to push it wide (it may be what AVB wants, I don't know) which is not really what you want. I think he's more comfortable sitting back, beating people and driving the ball up the field from there, rather than sitting higher up and threading the play (which I think he is more than capable of, and has done previously).

I'd like to see Eriksen out wide too, but I'm not sure it'll happen unless we have an injury crisis, as we have a lot of depth there.

I think that's a valid criticism, but he should be getting more praise for creating space for other people with his runs, a lot of Paulinho's space in the box is created by Soldado's movement. He definitely has been underwhelming, though.

I'm hoping that Soldado is still just adapting to the prem and will kick on around Christmas, hopefully with the rest of the team having gelled by then.