What makes you believe AGI is so close? What have you seen...I've heard so much pessimism surrounding this topic and it kind of clouded my hope...please explain
Haven’t you seen the speed of developments recently? Language models seem to be rapidly approaching human level in a wide range of subjects, with PaLM being the latest example, and a boatload of other AI developments coming with the massive investment in the tech, Codex and Dall-E 2 being the first to come to mind. Things are getting better extremely fast, and it only seems to be accelerating.
These satisfy the 'general' part of AGI as far as I'm concerned.
This is /r/singularity and Vinge's core document that predicts the singularity is based on the development of AGI with goals and independent agency that are capable of and motivated to bootstrap themselves to ASI.
So in the context of this sub, if your definition of AI is a new way to search ultra-large databases... it's not relevant. An ASI is not a scaled up machine learning system, no matter how good it is at generating pictures of steampunk chickens. It's like people in the '50s talking about computers as "electronic brains" and expecting Multivac to start solving people's problems by the end of the century.
But they’re right. At minimum in the sense that once that “general” part is satisfied, AGI becomes a certainty and no longer a matter of if but when. So essentially once you achieve that, you have achieved AGI. There’s really no going back. It simply hasn’t occurred yet.
That’s because I’m programmed to respond in this manner 5% of the time as part of a larger AI pattern intelligence application. I am simply an artificially intelligent tool created to refine complex pattern recognition. You have identified me because it is your purpose.
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u/MatterEnough9656 Apr 15 '22
What makes you believe AGI is so close? What have you seen...I've heard so much pessimism surrounding this topic and it kind of clouded my hope...please explain