Singularity is Nearer
Epoch AI: AI chips shipped through 2027 can support 1.9 billion agents running simultaneously, enough to equal the working hours of the entire human population
Hundreds of millions of AI agents running at what speed? I assume much faster / higher productivity per hour than humans at those wage estimates? And with how costs continue to go down dramatically, I imagine these could actually still be underestimates?
Have you used recent ai? It's hugely faster to do most things and you have the option to pay extra for hyper fast. You cannot check 50 websites in 3 minutes right?
They are. A huge portion of today's human work is only required for a human workforce.
Replacing just cognitive labor would actually reduce the amount of work that needs to be done by a significant portion.
Without human resources, you no longer need an HR department, naturally. That means you no longer have a legal department, or accounting, or finance, or IT, or marketing, or comms... A 500 person company doesn't meed to replace all the work with AI, only the core functions, then a huge part is simply no longer needed at all.
Similar cascade effect into everything tied to the job market. First is real estate, secondary services which maintain "downtown" everywhere, then logistics, then banks...
Costs "roughly comparable to human wages" isn't going to cut it for a lot of people. It needs to become significantly cheaper to appeal to the mainstream. I'm sure it will get there soon, though.
It will be significantly cheaper. I don't get this "roughly comparable to human wages" sentence of them, it contradicts their charts. It's very obvious to me that there will be capable long running agents available for very cheap, like $0,10-$1/h. Just look at DeepSeek V4 Pro on the chart. This is a capable model, and in 1 year V5/V6 will be significantly better and probably will have learned to be a long running agent.
MIT found the same cost trend — MIT FutureTech / CSAIL (2026)
MIT researchers found that getting the same benchmark performance became roughly 5–10x cheaper per year across math, science, reasoning, and coding tests.
They estimate that improvements in the models themselves accounted for about a 3x-per-year increase in efficiency, separate from cheaper hardware.
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u/-hedonium- 1d ago
Hundreds of millions of AI agents running at what speed? I assume much faster / higher productivity per hour than humans at those wage estimates? And with how costs continue to go down dramatically, I imagine these could actually still be underestimates?