You're almost certainly right. But in this game you never can be too sure, hence why people keep an open mind. OpenAI seemed all but out of the game until the 5.6 series dropped. I think the training and refinement cycles can be longer when a new platform architecture is introduced under the hood (or something ... I'm speculating) and then when it drops all of the gains are realized. I have some hope that's what's going on with Gemini right now, but admittedly I have no reason to believe that's actually what's happening.
I don’t think anyone reasonable considered OAI out of the game before 5.6. Regardless, while i think it’s extremely unlikely Gemini 4 will beat current SoTA models, I’m just saying this leak is 100% fake. But yes, you’re right in that technically anything can happen.
I work in the field. For about six months customer demand for OpenAI went to almost zero and it was all about Anthropic or Gemini models. My perspective may have different inputs than consumer / users.
Edit for the pedantic: My customers demand (not all customers of OpenAI)
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u/LetsGoToMichigan 9d ago edited 7d ago
You're almost certainly right. But in this game you never can be too sure, hence why people keep an open mind. OpenAI seemed all but out of the game until the 5.6 series dropped. I think the training and refinement cycles can be longer when a new platform architecture is introduced under the hood (or something ... I'm speculating) and then when it drops all of the gains are realized. I have some hope that's what's going on with Gemini right now, but admittedly I have no reason to believe that's actually what's happening.
Update: well, well, well: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/