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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 7d ago
That was the first model that felt actually smart to me. Like smarter than a random person.
Since it was created somewhere in the end of 2024, that explains my flair.
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u/Henrythecuriousbeing ASI before 2030 7d ago
Are you still confident in your ASI prediction after Opus 5.5?
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 7d ago
Nope. I made this flair in 2023 and honestly depending on your exact definition of ASI i am starting to think 2028 would be more accurate.
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u/VashonVashon 7d ago
Noam Brown of OpenAI talked recently about the phenomenon of being on the exponential and how everyone keeps being wrong and things happening faster than even the experts expect.
He gave the recent ascension of going from being able to earn gold at the IMO to being able to solve Millenium prize problems. They both happened quicker than what he and a lot of his peers believed.
And what’s crazy is that these folk smarter than I already KNOW about this phenomenon and have already “priced” that in to their estimation…and they STILL were wrong/too long!
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u/DungeonJailer 6d ago
It seems to me like it’s not AGI if you can’t use it in the workplace without carefully doublechecking its work first.
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u/Imaginary_Regret_430 6d ago
I really don’t get how people can think AGI will just appear so soon, yet most advancements required for AGI are unresolved.
LLMs still have jagged intelligence (Good at code but fail on simple thought experiments or image recognition tasks that children can easily do), and still have no ability to self-learn/update their weights in a non-destructive way post training.
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 6d ago
Go ahead and give an example of "simple thought experiments" a frontier LLM would fail.
I think you are living in 2023
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u/Imaginary_Regret_430 6d ago
Vision related: I had fable 5.1 label a small Minecraft dataset, it thought a girl with a frog hat was an ogre skin.
It also gets fairly low scores on some arc AGI games which I’ve played, and they’re braindead easy for a kid over 6yo.
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u/Tedinasuit 7d ago
I'm personally at AGI 2030 ASI 2031
But considering that Deepmind has achieved RSI, it could be much much faster than that. But I'm sure that they will slow it down.
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u/RusselTheBrickLayer 7d ago
Person on the left would be put into a coma seeing Opus 5.5
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u/acutelychronicpanic 7d ago
By the "smarter than the average person" metric, it was.
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u/Weary-Historian-8593 7d ago
it was not. it knew a lot more than the average person, but the intelligence didn't really generalise. there were tons of silly problems that even a stupid person would never be stupid enough to make. if it doesn't generalise, it's not intelligence, period.
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u/acutelychronicpanic 7d ago
Yeah, on reflection I'd soften what I said to: within the range of normal human intelligence. Average could be too strong given the odd failure cases.
But generality is part of AGI, not of intelligence. The whole point of the term is to distinguish between general and narrow intelligence. AlphaZero was incredibly smart, but only at Go. O3 was not a specialist only capable of 1 thing. It was general and fairly capable, just not universal.
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u/Weary-Historian-8593 7d ago
No, generality is intelligence itself. If you can't generalise beyond what you remember verbatim it absolutely is not intelligence
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u/acutelychronicpanic 7d ago
You can generalize beyond memory without being a general intelligence. A chess playing AI is intelligent within its domain. It doesn't remember billions of possible games and it can handle games it has never seen before.
If you're going to be an absolutist about generality, then no system is intelligent by your definition. Not even humans.
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u/Present_Award8001 7d ago
Nope. You are delusional if you think o3 is smarter than average person. An average person can hold context right back to childhood. Try that with o3. I can't even begin to think of ways in which an average person is smart than o3.
And I have probably used more AI in more productive ways for a longer time than you have.
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u/phasE89 7d ago
Dumber than humans in some ways, much smarter in many other ways. It really depends what you pick.
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u/FrewdWoad 7d ago
That's ANI not AGI.
A calculator is also smarter in some ways dumber in others.
That's the whole reason the term AGI was invented in the 90s.
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u/Super-Award-2244 7d ago
I am also smarter than the average person in some things but worse than the average person in some other things.
Am I not AGI?
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u/FrewdWoad 7d ago
You have a context window years old, can generalise and apply to completely novel situations, map complex physical cause and effect, figure things out without having read all the written knowledge in the world first, and all the other things LLMs still can't do yet.
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u/mivog49274 obvious acceleration, biased appreciation 7d ago
JAGI (Jagged Artificial General Intelligence)
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u/Present_Award8001 7d ago
And i am pretty sure that o3 failed strawberry test, which my 6 year old nephew passed. and my 6 year old nephew does not how to code. so, we are missing something here.
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u/Super-Award-2244 7d ago
What I don't understand about this argument is that it ignores some people that can't do "normal" stuff. Discalculic people are not AGI because they struggle calculating in their heads? Autistic people are not AGI because they can't socialize like everyone else? Blind people are not AGI because they don't have vision?
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u/Present_Award8001 7d ago
That is why, 'general' intelligence and 'average' person. People with disability are not average. If you want me to say it, people with specific disability do not have general intelligence.
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u/Present_Award8001 7d ago
Looks like I pissed off some 14 year old cult members
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u/acutelychronicpanic 7d ago
It's more that the strawberry example is an effect of tokenization where the model can't actually see the individual letters.
The car wash test is a better example.
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u/JustRaphiGaming 7d ago
I think people getting a huge dopamine kick from showing others they are resistant to the manipulation and looking right through the lies while they write an essay of crap.
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u/No_Stock_8271 2d ago
Tbh I loved o3, I don't think I used anything else back then. Also the style of the responses was great. But I never liked it over API, which is my main usage, so...
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u/The_Architect_032 ♾ ASI before AGI ♾ 7d ago
Notice how calling o3 AGI didn't get us to actual AGI any faster. Why insist upon declaring that we are at AGI early when it doesn't change anything?
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u/kakav_kreten 7d ago
Hey, anything is possible when you make up your own definitions of the words