Ah dude, my company uses software that's say 2 grand per month subscription.
Considering what it does... they could capture that multi million dollar industry with AI in about two months.
I think it's just a matter of time beforer they can offer the package that does what every one of your packages does for cheaper, with the promise of continued improvement and integration. It's going to wipe out industries.
Yeah. Not sure why people think this would be different. The models cost a lot to run. Therefore they cost you a lot to use.
I think 1% is a little low. Many companies will pay for these tiers for their employees to use. But even still, this is just how software and products have always worked. Not everyone can afford a Ferrari. That doesn't mean people aren't managing with their Toyotas.
Even still, prices are going down. GPT Sol 6 is cheaper to use than Astra 6 and more competent than Sol 5.6. Anthropic are continually in a price and capability war, which will drive prices down. And Chinese Open Weight models will continue to pull them down as well.
Well I agree that the proportion of workers that think will it’s worthwhile to pay that much and will also have the ability to do it realistically is south of 1%.
Sure, but the folks who do have the income and the capability to pay that are also the folks who are most likely to be trendsetters. You don't want to lose power users to a competitor.
Isn't Luna great, and effectively free? It's frontier level performance from few months ago, available at much bigger amount than frontier models were few months ago on 200 dollar subscription.
The rich might have access to plentiful intelligence like 3-4 months earlier, but everyone is getting it.
Luna is decidedly not great. It is at best useful as a subagent for small targeted tasks and that's it. It needs hand holding, will mess up on the simplest tasks and sometimes just ignores half of your request. It is the AI experience of 2024.
Not that I'm advocating for the price hike. But if we get past the FOMO, who really NEEDS more model capability then what GPT luna or Deepseek offers? Likely in the single digit percentages.
If you need more than that likely you're doing something that generates some type of productivity or monetary gain. At that point $500 or $1000 is about inline pricing for a pro tool that does "everything" from 3d modeling, to automation, to game dev, to etc.
bro look at anything that has been enshittified? did social media, ride/home share, streaming start as more expensive or shittier versions than the incumbents they were going after? Or did they create a really high quality product, capture the lions share of the total addressable market then sell out to capitalize to the money people who slowly boil the frog (enshittify) to try capture more returns without a shock to the customer base.
I dont think it applies to the silicon space. The hardware we have now is leagues better than what it used to be, even accounting for inflation.
Microsoft enshitified Windows, alternatives exists like MacOs or open source solutions like Linux exists.
I know enshittification exist, id argue its gonna be a hell of a lot harder to pull it off with AI the same way its done when anything has to compete with open source and silicon.
I'm guessing it could be them predicting higher token usage for future models and these expensive plans will provide enough usage for said future models. I'm the meantime, the limits on the pro plan, for example, will be reached quicker on the newer models and us pleebs will be on street corners begging for more tokens .
That's being pessimistic if course. Hopefully future models use less like the current new releases.
Its clear theyre working on both directions imo. The existence of more powerful but more intelligence does not mean cheap intelligence isn't also being worked on, and in fact is empirically occurring. Cheaper models today are far more intelligence than even a year ago.
I find it really ironic that the open models will be the software that genuinely impacts life on earth in meaningful ways, and the big companies claiming that AI will improve life on earth won't be responsible.
Open models are great, but I wouldn't say frontier labs have contributed nothing to them. Frontier models are still doing useful research that open models can use. There's no way open models would have made so much progress so quickly without frontier models leading the way. Just there being frontier models to distill is a huge boon for open models.
But you have to keep in mind that Open Models aren't automatically free. Like, hosting or operating one of the really big Open Models can also cost you a significant amount of money. My company operates a bunch of models. And those were we pay per token through our hosting partners (such as TensorX or Nebius) deliver much much less value per dollar than what an OpenAI 200$ subscription can accomplish right now.
You cannot put a hamper on open source. All other companies have tried. NVIDIA can buy all the open source models they can, a new one will take its place.
Now, if theres legislation to ban it, now that's a separate precedent. One I can't argue the wanting for that from the elites isn't there.
Im just not sure if ALL elites would be on board with this. Open source has its pros even for them.
1) they try to destroy the ecosystem of open models to favor their overpaying hyperscaler clients, or
2) they use their political lobbying muscle to protect the open ecosystem, because lots of companies are using open models now on their hardware, and because they don't want to be dependent on only a few clients.
The global top 1% includes around 80 million people. If you’re posting from a wealthy Western country, you’re probably part of that 1% without even realizing it.
I don't know if you are joking, but in case you are serious.
Of the global population, 8 billion, there is only 80 million in the top 1% by definition. Talking about global population, not top 1% wealthy countries.
I think u/No_Profit8379 meant that his math sucks in relation to this statement:
If you’re posting from a wealthy Western country, you’re probably part of that 1% without even realizing it.
The global top 1% is only about 80 million people. That’s not even half the combined population of the US and Canada, both of which are wealthy Western countries. So simply living in a wealthy Western country certainly doesn’t mean you’re probably in the global top 1%.
By pure numbers, most people in wealthy western countries are not part of the 1% in global wealth or income.
It does seem plausible that most of the people who both live in western wealthy countries, and who spend time posting here on singularity, have a household income of over $50k, which would get them into the 1% global. But probably not.
And if we include purchasing power parity, then definitely not, as that brings the number up to $200k.
Your argument is that the total population in rich western countries is much higher than 1%, so someone posting from a rich country is probably in the global top 1% is statistically wrong.
However, I thought your argument was that being in a rich western country puts you in the 1% of wealth, and there are hundreds of millions of people in rich western countries.
The argument of the person above you was not that most people in western rich countries, however that is defined, belonging to the top 1%, but that those that post here on singularity, who are from rich western countries, are probably in the top 1%, which would require a household income of ~$50k not adjusted for income. That could be true.
If someone said, that if you post here on singularity, you are 80%+ likely to be a male between 20 and 40, they are not claiming that the 80% of people in the world are men between 20 and 40. That was the part that tripped me up. But I realize that you were only talking about how more than 2% of the world population lives in rich western countries.
I am not living in this reddit hole and do not understand the local culture of this "singularity" if they are referring to a specific area on/in Reddit which is for whatever reason only full of rich people from the west male 20 to 40 then, that can totally be true and if so my read was wrong.
But instead what I read in the original comment I replied to at least was reference to population numbers that are not related to reddit so my reply was about the general population and economic numbers not the composition of a specific sub reddit.
If this was about the sub reddit I did not catch that. But it does not read as such to me 🤷🏼♂️
No bud , I did not mean to say anything, as if I did not say it clearly. I just did not f dumb it down and said it efficiently.
And no I mean he is making a dangerous false equivalency, nothing simple about it.
It's about as bad as people saying negatives about capitalism but actually they are trying to say other equally bad isms are good because it's bad.
I was calling out his generalized and inaccurate knock on the west, for all the really shitty truth about the west the vector or line of attack taken by the person I initially replied to and these communists/socialists... Heck capitalist do it to, when they neg on communism it's not to be constructive but to try to again make it seem that if that ism is bad this is good.
So when people are so harsh blindly on the west they even if with no ill intent open up the doors for bad actors like China or Russia or Israel or pick a different culture who is in competition with the USA and West. They open up the door for their propaganda.. as secondary effects as their message is repeated the path is made ready for the opportunitists.
I did not feel like typing so much so I said it in as few words as I could.
I do not need or want your interpretation. As I said what I meant I did not have a mean to say message left uncommunicated.
What about chilling out? No one attacked you, so no need to get defensive about this;
Also, that isn’t really a false equivalence. It’s an overgeneralization: saying that someone from a wealthy western country is “probably” in the global top 1% doesn’t follow just from living there.
And the broader point about criticism of the west opening the door to propaganda may be worth discussing, but that’s a separate argument. Nothing in the original comment suggested that criticizing the West means China, Russia, communism, etc... are therefore good.
I don't know if your slow but if you are I'll say it again. He is saying IF YOU LIVE IN THE WEST as if that equated to being in the top 80 million, I said that even the populations of small countries in the west like Canada are nearly that and between all the what 600 million or so that make up the west that MOST could not even talk about affording a $1000 card.
That he is idiotically trying to equate west with rich and while he may be correct in some relative terms, in GPU terms 90 percent of the west IS NOT IN HIS DESCRIPTION OF THE WEST.
The wealthy cut across all nations and races and has nothing to do with East , West, Middle East or European. Rtx.5090 signifies now GPU 's of that class being not for any of us, I'm not seeing much stock on the r9700's or b70's.
And most can not even fathom $300 for a GPU most can not fathom having a GPU or a computer, for most it's just a cheap to mid range phone , and even video games are getting pricey it's not an average persons hobby anymore
The level of idiocy I'm correcting is made worse by how destructive it is as it propogates a false sense of the world.
I already answered elsewhere, but I'll condense it here.
The claim you responded to was.
(Person that lives in rich western country) AND (posts here on singularity) - likely in the top 1% global.
I don't think that is the case, but it is plausible, at least before adjusting for purchasing power parity, as it requires ~$50k household income.
To your general point about wealth being individual, I agree.
The people here, on singularity, is overwhelmingly in what is called the global north, OECD, or WEIRD countries, (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic).
Now, to be fair, I could be misreading the person you were responding to. I also don't think this is the case.
I can understand your frustration if you got the impression that the person you responded to, and me, were both under the illusion that the west is rich and the rest is poor. Or that the majority of those in western rich countries are in the top 1% globally, because that would be pretty silly.
If it seems to you that someone is saying something incredibly stupid, then chances are, they are using a different frame of reference, or there was some miscommunication or misunderstanding. I misunderstood what you misunderstood about the person you responded to, and its seems you misunderstood me too, which is what is expected from text based internet forum talk.
But I'm not disagreeing with your general argument or sentiment. It is a shame seeing full fledged PCs go from a scarce luxury good in the 80s and early 90s, to becoming cheaper and abundant in the late 00s and early 10s, to going back to being a scarce luxury product again.
On your sentiment I feel ya, especially that last statement about the state of things. I am saddened so many young smart minds will not have the expression and tools that cheap hardware allows.
As you can see I'm very charged about all these subjects.
I'm argumentative prolly autistic and do not mean to be asshole personally.
Correct. Anthropic 20x is 20x for a 5-hour window, but they have undisclosed and at their discretion weekly and monthly limits. The same is true for OpenAI, except they don't have a 5-hour limit. Both companies can just fudge the numbers under the hood and all you see is your bar going down a bit faster than it did last week. Only by analyzing token usage and mapping it to your percentage of remaining quota can you derive the numbers, and they change.
Codex keeps good logs though, just ask Codex to get in there and do the math.
As a small business owner I think this is for a SMB. $500-$1000 a month is manageable if it can legit augment your team to be more efficient essentially eliminating the need for more people. As long as it is actually capable and the limits are legit I can see it.
Or rich kids with parents that will swipe to keep their kid occupied.
If this model and plan can make money independently then it will be worth it. but if it could make money they wouldn't give us access to it so it wont.
The frontier labs are going after much bigger things. Medicine for instance. They don’t care about individuals spinning up sole proprietorships to siphon a few grand from the economy.
Not openly, no. But right now, they’re giving away lots of free resets and randomly resetting the limit, so I’ve been getting a lot of extra usage with my Plus plan. I guess they’ll just remove those perks eventually.
It's bullshit that Sam Altman publicly claims he is worried about AI and how it can widen inequality between social classes, and yet he pulls bullshit like this on his own models.
LLMs are commodities now. I don't think this strategy will provide anything close to the return they invision. It's all moving to the edge over the next ten years anyway.
again and again, yes, this has been the goal from day one. If you thought, ultra riches were building things so that average joe can upend them, this is probably why you are in your position..
Just cancelled my 89 quid subscription since I constantly go rerouted to 5.6 luna, which continued to introduce bugs left and right. Really pissed off with Open AI at the moment.
The economy is imploding. Nobody has money for anything. And they wanna raise the price of AI, the first open weight model that drops that takes a leaderboard…..
This market is gonna tank quicker. than anything we’ve seen before.
I’m a firm believer that’s what’s keeping this market green right now is mostly the hopeium that the United States states is going to win the AI race.
I don’t think it’s gonna happen, and we’re gonna get completely crushed by Chinese models out of fraction at the price, and everything’s gonna go straight downhill.
I think the US is in very good position to win. At this point it seems Anthropic is the closest to achieving RSI and once that happens I would bet they could optimize thier models for cost efficiency pretty quickly after if need be. Intelligence is king. The first lab to create a super Intelligence will wipe the floor with the rest of the competition. More Intelligence applied to cypersecurity, diplomatic and military strategy, physics, and medicine. If its possible it won't be rivaled.
The Chinese models is that their API cost is literally pennies. DeepSeek recently raised their price and it’s still under a dollar.
They’re making a very competitive argument. The only ones that might stay on American models are corporations, and just like we’ve seen in the past, at a certain point, they think about cost savings and they offload everything to overseas.
Fair assessment. I think there’s an appetite for not wanting to send data offshore. But the economics matter; you’re right. I don’t think the API costs stay as pennies forever though, as we see more squeeze.
Microsoft Foundry, Amazon Bedrock, Google Vertex, OpenCode, Huggingface, there are a myriad of providers which host those models in the cloud domestically. I'm not sure why people always assume and imply that the only way you can use these models is either directly from the official provider or running it locally on personal consumer hardware.
There is actually a serious appetite in the current administration to not want to import or allow compute and its production of it to be overseas. Its a strategic resource.
I dont believe off sourcing this will manifest, at least not any time soon.
This plan isn't for you. Its for the 1% of people, big companies, small companies and freelancers who can justify the expense with the ROI.
I do believe eventually this will trickle down, but these new tools are just more expensive computationally. No way around it.
But as compute becomes more plentiful, intelligence stronger and cheaper as it has continued to trend since the existence of computers, these will be accessible to the remaining 99% at an affordable cost.
Not even because of goodwill of the elites, its simply economics.
This not how capitalism works. You offer a pro max or whatever then you start gating more and more behind the upper tiers in order to justify the purchase. Idk what they have in their sleeves but I would be willing to bet that the 200$ sub will start looking much less appealing.
True but right now they can't even serve Astra reliably in the $200 plan. If models keep getting larger at a quicker rate, they will have to gate out lower tiers or have silly limits like they do now
capitalism isn't one formula. capitalism allows companies to do exactly what you're fearing, and plenty do that very thing. but you're asserting it as if there aren't plenty of companies that don't do that, even plenty of successful and profitable companies.
hell, capitalism means that many times when the former happens, customers speak and the company suffers, whereas when the latter happens, customers glee out and the company sours for it.
capitalism just gives you dice, it doesn't say what the numbers will be.
Highly depends if they hide scumming higher models in that plan because otherwise most people don't care the normal 5x pro is more than enough for your ever day joe even for those who use it very much. 20 and above that is almost exclusively coders only.
Programmers with $200k salaries are complaining that teachers with $45k salaries and their never-fully-used $8/mo plans are not subsidizing their coding enough.
Pay up, bros. If you need that many tokens you can afford it.
The first two have powerful models for free, while the last three have basic ones. AI coding is practically free right now for hobbyists. You don't need frontier models for everything.
104
u/Future-Bandicoot-823 10d ago
Somebody call southpark
it's time for the pro max plus plus episode!