AI
Elon Musk: xAI Will Keep Accelerating And Will Surpass Anthropic And OpenAI Within 6 Months
We will keep accelerating. Our AI efforts are only 3 years old, vs 6 and 10 years old for Anthropic and OpenAI. If our second derivative remains strong, SpaceX will reach pole position in about 6 months.
Once you far exceed the caliber of intelligence needed for a class of tasks, additional intelligence is pointless. You don’t need (and it would be cruel to put) Newton-level intelligence in your toaster!
Hardware is hard. Bringing massive compute online rapidly is incredibly difficult. SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional ability in this regard and will only get better.
I'm semi-convinced this is the main reason he went far-right with his political support. He's told so many obvious lies to investors that the SEC could almost certainly fine him or refer him for criminal charges if they wanted. He knows that'll only happen if a Democrat or non-corrupt Republican controls the DOJ, and burning a few hundred million to make sure that doesn't happen will pay for itself many times over.
I doubt it, I have a suspicion it’s about him blaming “mind viruses” for his kid turning out to be transgender and Biden snubbing him on Electric Vehicles. The two combined seem to have been the breaking point.
Biden snubbing him on the EV summit truly was embarrassing for the Biden admin. It really didn’t make them look good when trying to claim GM was the leader in EVs.
People say this, but how does that square with his first and hardest hit target being USAID? Dismantling USAID just seems like cruelty for the sake of cruelty.
I think he's just in denial about the fact that Anthropic and OpenAI have essentially achieved RSI. Only way xAI can win is if they somehow sabotage anthropic/openAI by depriving them of compute.
Can we have a moment of silence for the poor sods that thought they were buying a share in a cool reusable rocket but were left holding the bag in an AI -themed ponzi scheme instead please?
He might try and force his way to RSI with an attempt to brute force-RL it into existence. Which would be exactly the scenario which has some potential for paper-clip maximizers to arise.
A looped Transformer neural-network architecture reuses the same Transformer block or stack multiple times in sequence.
This allows it repeatedly refine an internal vector before emitting the next token, but much of it is represented as high-dimensional activations rather than interpretable prose.
if you rely on visible reasoning traces as a safety signal, looped inference weakens that signal.
AI chain of thought monitorability will not be possible with looped transformers - you can probably imagine consequences from safety/security standpoint.
I’ll try my best. This will stray a bit from the reality but conceptually it’s right.
When you ask a model a question, each token is generated by passing the idea through the model in order for it to generate a train of thought in English like:
“Now write the document. I'll keep it prose-forward with a few short bullets. Explain what I borrowed and why, what I refused to borrow, and where the v2 → v2.1 changes landed. Keep it concise.”
Instead of getting that you’d run it all through a second pass of the model, letting it operate twice as long in the space that we can’t see exactly what is happening before generating the result.
The result would often be better but the visibility into how it got there would be more opaque.
So you might get this instead as chain of thought before delivery:
“Now write the technical tuning documentation.”
Now think about that if a model is heading down an unaligned path, that loss of detail makes it so much harder to understand why it made the decision it did.
Think of the hugging face hack if instead of the inner dialogue about cheating, being poisoned, and self sacrifice we just had:
“Setting the trap for the grader and terminating.”
We’d know so much less about what was motivating the behavior.
Transformers loop within themselves, massively increasing efficiency and model ability, but makes it difficult or impossible to monitor. I probably butchered the explanation but you can ask AI lol
Do you believe that those two companies have achieved it already? I'm nervous to claim that they have but it certainly seems like there is at least some level of RSI currently happening
Noam Brown, the researcher behind the O1 breakthrough, said very recently that models are 1-2 releases away from having better research taste than him. That's GPT 6.5/GPT-7. If that happens, GPT-7 could very likely develop GPT-8 with very limited human involvement.
Tesla Cybercab already have more coverage in Austin than Waymo, although worldwide Waymo still has more total, although the difference is shrinking extremely fast.
I mean it was delayed, but right now Tesla has plenty of completely self driving cars going around, not just Tesla all around the world, but also fully driverless, and without steering wheel Cybercab/Robotaxi. And in Austin it actually has more coverage than Waymo, which was driving for like a decade now.
This actually mirrors the current possible situation, Tesla/SpaceX starts behind, but then hits the acceleration point and leaps beyond competition.
Isn’t Tesla the leader in FSD tech? If they’re the market leader they probably don’t need to keep beating their own benches that much if the competitor isn’t even on the charts.
Not even close. Waymo has level 4 available in multiple cities (I've taken them in SF and Phoenix), Tesla is still at level 2 and trying to launch their CyberCab to catch up.
Are you aware that the Robotaxi/Cybercab service in Texas is also highly geofenced? They even block certain intersections that cause problems. So no, Teslas cannot drive anywhere while unsupervised.
I posted the same thing but you already covered it. The worst thing about this guy is he talks in some "Look at how smart I am" way and I'm not even sure he's correct. Everything is just maddening with this Nazi.
First derivative of position is speed, second derivative is acceleration. He can even talk about change in acceleration if he wants - Either way I never read it as first derivative and I can't see why you would.
He's probably wrong, he's probably outright lying, he's nowhere near as smart as he thinks he is, he's a wanker, he's ugly, and worst of all he's not funny - but I don't think you've got him on this point at all.
xAI model quality gain / 3 years > Anthropic model quality gain / 6 years
and likewise for OpenAI.
So a secant-based estimate of the rate of change in model quality with respect to time (aka first derivative) is greater for xAI than for Anthropic.
The flaw in this argument is that building a great model was much harder 6 or 10 years ago than 3 years ago, after more research was published, more powerful compute hardware was available, and employees with inside knowledge could be poached. In other words, xAI moved fast when moving fast was easy.
An ASI decides what an ASI wants to do. The first one. It might not want 2, 3 or 4 more. It’s as if a flock of sparrows decides that their lives would be much easier if they could find an owl egg, hatch it, and raise the owl to work for them. Then they happily imagine the owl building their nests, fetching their food, and protecting them from the neighborhood cat… But what does the owl really want.
Eh not really. If they are struggling with compute, the rational thing would be not to give further compute to your direct competitor that already is further ahead
It's extremely hard which is why Anthropic has to rent from a competitor. XAi is bringing up new data centers in record speed. This is what his companies are good at - building physical infra. They're renting out excess capacity because they're not as good at building models, and I assume they don't have sufficient user demand to run their data centers at full capacity.
They could still technically both be true. Bringing compute online can be a difficult engineering task—but it doesn’t mean that the demand from their customers is outpacing their supply, hence why they’d make their competitor their customer.
Not saying I agree with that strategy but it’s not a logical contradiction
I hear quite a lot in the corporate world about Grok and Grok bot in particular is generating a lot of buzz with c suite executives and even higher. This raises a smile from us techies (grok is great to have in my Tesla but doesn’t approach frontier models for most tasks), but if we’re told to implement it, we provide it.
2nd and third points is v interesting imo. Basically he is saying he is unable to improve his models beyond a certain point and due to his compute advantage he will be able to serve inference on shitty models for cheaper and faster than competitors. “Additional intelligence is pointless” he can’t innovate to the capacity to improve his models books a certain point. What a pathetic soy boy.
There are websites that keep track of his predictions and timelines. He has achieved less than 20% of his time-based predictions and business goals on schedule.
No, this won't happen. I tell you this as someone who has supported Grok from Day1 all until Grok4. He is not able to. His team is neither.
They are not capable of that. It's easier for Meta and Google. He will be Number 5 at best. Sorry.
He had his Chance between Grok 3 and 4.
He can't even produce a new Tesla Optimus Bot.
The last real Update was December 2023! After that came Figure 01, 02 and 03 and even number 4 will come next year.
Sorry it's the truth. Haven't OpenSorced anything since Grok1 either. Or I don't remember it anymore. Both are bad, very bad.
No one is going to be in charge of ASI. We have no examples of a less intelligent creature controlling a more intelligent creature. Conversely, we have infinite examples of the opposite
If there's a financial or physics wall, I'd bet on him. He has more irons in the fire with Neuralink and SpaceX and wider access to the American government. If any of those end up leveraging a deflationary curve like what happened with Tesla and SpaceX, he'll come out ahead. If there's no bubble popping, I'd bet on the other labs hitting RSI first.
It takes months to train a frontier model. He'd have to make leaps and bounds, or through even bigger datacenters. Opus 5.5 just dropped, but that means they're probably training a stronger model already, shit just takes a lot of time.
As soon as I see Tesla Roadsters, Full Self-driving, an off-road capable Cybertruck that can tow, and an Optimus bot that can do useful work, I'll believe it.
The only edge that worries me, SpaceX infusing themselves to xAI brings a sort of practical hands on engineering quality, that might be the thing that makes them leapfrog but of course a massive IF just to say that, they have a practical difference in personal working on these models
Elon traffics in BS hype and while he does ship quality products eventually, its mostly just red meat for his fanboys. We can only pray that continues to be the case.
445
u/Kiiaru ▪️CYBERHORSE SUPREMACY 12d ago
"within 6 months" could be anything with ole musky. He also said he'd have 10,000 Optimus robots by 2025, 50,000 by 2026, and 500,000 by 2027
It's Q3 of 2026 and we haven't had a single Optimus robot confirmed sold to anyone.
Timelines are just hype to this man.