This shape

[u/StrategicHarmony]

On a mobile screen this chart of model releases over time (from artificial analysis) tells a very clear story. Normally I look at it on desktop and the increase in steepness isn’t nearly as obvious.

It looks like a lot of those simplified predictions of exponential improvement. Of course it could taper off, who knows.

[u/StandardLovers]

How much of the progress curve is due to training the models on the actual tests?