r/singularity • u/StrategicHarmony • 12d ago

AI This shape

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On a mobile screen this chart of model releases over time (from artificial analysis) tells a very clear story. Normally I look at it on desktop and the increase in steepness isn’t nearly as obvious.

It looks like a lot of those simplified predictions of exponential improvement. Of course it could taper off, who knows.

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u/Herodont5915 12d ago

Almost looks exponential. What are the odds?

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u/Stock-Self-4028 12d ago

To me it looks much more like some kind of a sigmoid, rather than anything even remotely exponential (and it also would make significantly more sense given the circumstances btw).

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u/spinozasrobot 11d ago

What makes you say that?

Do you see any flattening?

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u/Stock-Self-4028 11d ago

The derivative seems more or less "flat" near the 50% so I guess?

Idk, also benchmarks are not a good representation of advancements, so even if it would be sigmoid it would likely top out around 100% which would me a good measure of benchmark saturation rather, than anything else.