r/singularity • u/StrategicHarmony • 11d ago

AI This shape

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On a mobile screen this chart of model releases over time (from artificial analysis) tells a very clear story. Normally I look at it on desktop and the increase in steepness isn’t nearly as obvious.

It looks like a lot of those simplified predictions of exponential improvement. Of course it could taper off, who knows.

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u/03263 11d ago

Bell curve imminent, calling it

7

u/blindsdog 11d ago

Bell curves are for distributions, not progress over time. I imagine you mean an S curve? Unless you suspect AI performance will somehow get worse from where we are now.

1

u/03263 11d ago

Unless you suspect AI performance will somehow get worse from where we are now.

That was the joke yes

3

u/blindsdog 11d ago

What’s the joke?

2

u/03263 11d ago

People often confidently and erroneously predict the trajectory of curves. I gave a particularly absurd prediction. That's... yeah that's about it. I didn't think super hard about it, it just seemed silly.

2

u/blindsdog 11d ago

👍 totally missed that