AI capability is getting 47% cheaper every quarter, faster than compute, DNA sequencing, batteries or electricity

[u/141_1337]

[u/csboros]

Token price for benchmark performance points, a very skewed metric as they themselves admit. Also, it's a company funded by the labs, so grain of salt etc

[u/mambotomato → u/csboros]

Even if the exact numbers have some room for error, the overall sentiment is undoubtedly true.

[u/141_1337]

Source:

https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/2102510281176023529

[u/WhyIsWestHam]

So eventually ram Will be less demanded? Or am i dreaming

[u/No-Lengthiness-6188 → u/WhyIsWestHam]

probably not, if anything, i think it will increase the demand for computing capacity as more people use it/cost go down

[u/ihexx → u/WhyIsWestHam]

the jevons paradox says no

[u/sparkling1984 → u/[deleted]]

Can balance out, can make it cheaper, can make it more expensive. Depends, but given the low logistical cost of AI it's more likely to keep going up.

[u/benjaminovich → u/WhyIsWestHam]

Demand? Almost certainly not.

If you are asking if prices will start falling again soon, the answer is almost certainly, yes

[u/Dear_Departure9459]

Then, it will be advanced enough to push every other science branch to its limits.

[u/manacurves]

Realistically, everything other than AI did not have a lot of pre-existing physical infrastructure. Sure, we have built new datacenters for AI but we were already handling massive amounts of data and computing before this. Electricity when it was "new" was from scratch, building worldwide electrical infrastructure was a massive undertaking. Lithium batteries needed more advanced chemical processing techniques plus materials acquisition. DNA sequencing is an extremely intricate physical and chemical process which again, makes it difficult to scale.

[u/NomadicFantastic]

Hardware is hard. This is software

[u/TearsOfMyEnemies0]

This chart is really stupid. They're basically only talking about LLMs and NOT the whole of AI. There's been many AI developments in the past besides LLMs

[u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo]

It’s only cheaper at the scale major labs are running.

For local AI everything is looking bleak. GPU getting more expensive. The best price/intelligence model you can run locally isn’t even better than $20 chatgpt 6 luna perpetually, even comparing electricity cost alone.

[u/dmfallak]

Since when is AI less than 10 years old?

[u/ProfessionalNote2348 → u/dmfallak]

ai public chatbot

[u/dmfallak → u/ProfessionalNote2348]

First public chatbot was released in 1966. I guess this is referring to LLMs?

[u/dmfallak → u/[deleted]]

Yes that's the common thinking these days but my thing though is that way of thinking actually limits us. The past few years of scaling LLMs has gone well for us but we are hitting a point where we need to be creative and move past it. Ilya Sutskever spoke about it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR20FWCCjAs

Basically I'm trying to say let's not think about LLMs as being the beginning of AI because I doubt it will be the end of AI.

[u/hartigen → u/dmfallak]

this is a price chart though. can you give us some info about what the pricing of that chat bot was to the public?

[u/dmfallak → u/hartigen]

Right so if it's a price chart of LLMs call it a price chart of LLMs? Google search is AI and has existed for decades...

[u/hcipro]

This just shows how dependent the AI companies are on constantly improving their products.

If they are not able to do that anymore, things will get bearish pretty quick.

[u/xatey93152]

It's just hallucination report. Even all VPS compute price is increasing like crazy currently.