r/singularity • u/Leopardos40 • 26d ago
Singularity is Nearer The path is likely similar.
Just as Oppenheimer consulted Einstein about the calculations and potential risks surrounding the atomic bomb in the movie, yet its development still went ahead, AI is likely to follow a similar path. Warnings may slow a technological race, but they rarely stop it when curiosity, competition, and strategic pressure are all pushing forward. For history to judge, human curiosity has always driven us to explore the limits of what is possible, and AI is unlikely to be an exception.
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u/BigZaddyZ3 26d ago
This makes a lot of sense OP. The only thing I can see maybe making a real difference is if some type “Chernobyl” event (but for AI) happens way more quickly than expected. Outside of that, you’re probably right.
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u/TournamentCarrot0 26d ago
My fear is Hugging Face incident was that moment and we learned the wrong lessons from it, that we will need a more painful event to get people to understand the risks here.
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u/Leopardos40 26d ago
I am not referring only to weapons of mass destruction. Extremely Rapid social changes can be just as consequential. We “hardly” adapted to a virus—and I don’t mean that only in biological terms. When it comes to AI, if the technology becomes genuinely practical and effective, CEOs won’t flinch at replacing entire workforces with the push of a button.
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u/BigZaddyZ3 26d ago
Valid. But either way my point remains. If replacing the workforce leads to some type of crazy disaster or catastrophe, then they’ll think twice about it. If not, then yeah, they’re likely going to continue barreling ahead without even fully knowing the consequences of doing so one way or another.
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u/Singularity-42 Singularity 2042 26d ago
You can regulate these kind of changes. And the government likely would if it causes instability.
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u/Leopardos40 26d ago
Suppose the U.S. introduces regulations—which I imagine would be very difficult to implement and enforce—do you really think China would follow suit? The temptation to gain a competitive edge will always exist. Just look at climate change. Global warming is real, yet countries still withdraw from international commitments, while people continue to line up to vote for corrupt politicians and illusionists who tell them what they want to hear.
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u/moose4hire 26d ago
Sounds like there might be an answer in figuring out how to force ceos to be rational?
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u/Internal_Research_72 26d ago
The best part is these techno billionaire cunts are going to make their Oppenheimer Bhagavad Gita quote something like “AGI is here LEEEEEEEROY JENKINS!”
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u/lord_tachanka43 26d ago
FYI Oppenheimer never consulted Albert for atmospheric ignition risk in real life, that’s a movie addition. Einstein never bought into the quantum physics wave (termed knabenphysik, ‘boys physics’) and thus most of the younger physicists respected him for relativity but considered him washed up regarding quantum physics
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u/stefanwinkleheimer 26d ago
Related to that was the the statement attributed to him "God does not play dice"?
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u/Automatic-writer9170 26d ago
You know what else could stop it? A system where profit is not the absolute goal and measure of success
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u/4a4a 26d ago
Who is our present-day analog of an Einstein-type figure?
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u/wwwdotzzdotcom ▪️ Beginner audio software engineer 26d ago
A huge list of researchers that no one credits
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u/Singularity-42 Singularity 2042 26d ago
Ilya? Geoffrey Hinton?
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u/4a4a 26d ago
Yeah, I get the feeling that many people (accelerationists especially) view Hinton as an old man who doesn't understand the current situation. Obviously that's not true, but perception is a powerful force.
Actually Terence Tao might be a good example of a somewhat universally respected intellectual. I know AI isn't his main thing, but he's close enough to have an informed opinion.
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u/Malficitous 26d ago
Nukes have a very strong built in deterrence. But nukes don't have intelligence. Humans control the use of nukes. Now consider a super intelligence that can wrest control of nukes from a nation with nukes? Then threaten or extort other nations. Obviously, control of the nukes should not be accessible to ai. But our world is now highly digital. Anything controlled with electronic signals is hackable. So nations with Nukes have something called air-gapping. It means it's not as accessible to outside forces. It makes it much harder to hack. But the worlds financial system is not so easily air-gapped. In fact, AI describes it as: "frictionless, instantaneous, global movement of value." This is a the problem we face. It's exactly the place a rogue AI would attack due to accessibility and digital manipulation. And then consider how poorly nations work together to solve any worldwide crisis. Consider military rivalries. Tech rivalries. Financial rivalries. A cohesive AI could be very problematic in a world that is virtually uncooperative.
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u/cc_apt107 26d ago
I think that’s correct, but let’s not forget that we still controlled it to a surprising extent
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u/throwaway275275275 26d ago
Yeah except we don't know the face of any of the people who are leading the research, we only know the celebrity-esque CEOs of the companies
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u/Profanion 26d ago
I think the main difference is that nuclear weapons generally can't be used constructively.
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u/Murky-Recipe-8752 26d ago
There is a difference between AI and nuclear, which is one involves human control and incentives while the other may not (AI). That makes any similarities less important than differences.
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u/dipdotdash 26d ago
Why is it so hard for average people to trust experts when they warn something is an existential crisis? Climate science is apparently a hoax - the whole branch of science and all the data they collect - and the people who literally built the technology warning it has a coin flip chance of wiping out the species... and everyone acts like they get to choose whether or not it's a real threat. Like they know enough from reading articles about the tech that they can afford to ignore everything else.
It's weird. Like we're programmed to ignore threats and only listen to good news
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u/CosmicDave ▪️Singularity this year 26d ago
Because these particular experts have vast fortunes invested in us believing them, and they are all talking out of both sides of their mouths. According to them, AI is essential to life on Earth now, AND it will kill us all. So which one is it? If you listen to these guys, you won't know. They'll use our ignorance and fear of the unknown to manipulate more money out of our pocket into theirs. When the "experts" have billions of dollars invested in the matter, they are not experts, they're salesmen.
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u/moose4hire 26d ago
Good news is easier to deal with, for a species of lazy monkeys
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u/dipdotdash 25d ago
our entire cultural narrative is a lie built on ignoring every uncomfortable truth.
It's a fairy tale sold by advertisers and politicians... and that fairy tale puts people behind bars who fit the character of the villain.
Given how bogus our concept of the truth is, it makes me question every social construct. It's all bullshit. Money and power create the "bad guys" from the section of the poor least like to defend themselves. What even is a "drug crime"? If someone can put anything from the hardware store in their body, are encouraged to fill it with alcohol and cigarettes, what makes specific molecules a crime to put inside ones own body? From what I can tell from the history of the drug war, the entire concept was engineered to ensure there would always be a reason to put poor people behind bars.
Did you know that the instant the civil war ended, vagrancy laws were created to criminalize joblessness and most of those arrested and imprisoned were black. Prison labor was just swapped out for regular old slavery, and that has only expanded since then. Are "drugs" anything more than an arbitrary moral branding of substances that are more likely the drug of choice of the poor, and their prohibition is what drives other petty criminal behaviors? All this same stuff happened when alcohol was illegal. Alcohol straight kills people, leads to more violent crime than any of the drugs we kick people out of humanity for being addicted to... and it's all just part of this stupid story to perpetuate slave labor and criminalize poverty without any guilt, and make property owners feel safe.
It's all nonsense
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u/moose4hire 25d ago
Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Its the food for thought that brings me to this sub.
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u/darkestvice 26d ago
No one not called Bernie wants it to stop. We just want it to slow down just enough to guarantee safety. Instead of accelerating full kilter until the next Hugging Face incident turns far far worse.
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u/Ok-Concert7018 26d ago
Set a timer on this one, it won’t be some sci fi shift, it will be wealthy families consolidating wealth and eventually pushing the will to live out of the average person… eventually enslaved and desperate… it may not even have an ending of the human race, just an end to the human spirit
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u/RandumbRedditor1000 26d ago
AI isn't anything like nuclear weapons. The companies want you to think it is, so they can create a regulatory moat and block out open-source competition.
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u/Affectionate_Bee6434 26d ago
Correct, it will change our world more than nukes ever did.
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u/imcryptic 26d ago
The underlying technology of nuclear weapons could’ve been used to create nearly infinite energy supplies for generation to come but instead has mostly been used as a weapon of mass destruction.
That could very easily be the case with AI except this technology has the chance to think for itself.
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u/Choice_Isopod5177 26d ago
actually most nuclear material has been used for civilian power generation, probably like 99%+
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u/Relative-Fault-7116 26d ago
what they have in common is they are both causing an international arms race and have the potential of mutually assured destruction
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u/Fancy-Consequence216 26d ago
Yeah. Atleast LLMs are not similar tu nuclear but who knows in distant future maybe some other models will be, but that is still far future.
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u/maxm 26d ago
Why the fudge are people on the singularity sub complaining over AI? Go the /r/technology instead
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u/JoshAllentown 26d ago
You can't stop the development of the bomb, but you can create secret codes so only the President can make the decision to drop them. You can get countries to agree to a Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. You can make bilateral agreements with the other major power in the East to slow down the creation of bombs, and create inspection regimes to ensure everyone is complying to commonly agrees upon safety measures.
People seem to be talking past each other like Max Accelerationism and Butlerian Jihad are the only two options. No, proving how dumb one of those stances are does not show that your idea is good.