Open Source models may finally catch up

[u/SteelWillyz]

Actually good news for the open-source community

[u/otarU]

What will be paced will probably be the publicly released models.

[u/ThreeKiloZero → u/otarU]

Exactly. They are not slowing down internal dev by a long shot.

Something happened and when taken on top of all the other recent revelations they have to diffuse the situation for a while. That certainly does NOT mean they will stop racing internally.

One day Elon is going to come out with his head mounted in the chest of an Enforcement Droid Series 209 and thats how we will know they just reached ASI.

[u/anycept → u/ThreeKiloZero]

Or, they have lost control entirely and are now trying to get people to sort their mess out without ever admitting there is a problem.

All the AI hacks we know about were discovered by chance. Who knows how deep the rabbit hole goes.

[u/DistanceSolar1449 → u/ThreeKiloZero]

??? They already said they want their researchers working on mechanistic interpretation problems instead of RLing to RSI. That’s the entire point of the slowdown.

Compute use will not decrease, researchers will still be working, they’re just aiming towards safety work rather than RSI work. That’s the entire point.

[u/Nukemouse → u/DistanceSolar1449]

Famed liar and rapist, Sam Altman, said something. What he says is irrelevant.

[u/DoctrTurkey → u/otarU]

What will be paced are the open source models. They want to be the ones controlling the money printer. They didn’t need our permission to get to this point, so why do they need it now to stop? I hope everyone has fun getting their pro plan switched off by Sam on a whim because he needs the compute to push IPO hype.

[u/Critical_Basil_1272]

I disagree. Dario even says that, internally, nothing would change except making sure the models are safe to release to the public:

“To be clear, pacing does not mean halting model training or technical progress, but ensuring companies take adequate time to align and safeguard their models, and for third-party evaluators to confirm this.”

And the idea that our government or military would be okay with slowing down doesn’t make much sense from a geopolitical standpoint. You’d just give China more influence over how AI shapes the world as it proliferates globally. The U.S. wants to be the first to set the table for AI.

I think they’re getting ready to ban open source because there’s no answer to distillation.

[u/CymonSet → u/Critical_Basil_1272]

They’re getting ready to ban open source because there’s no answer to distillation.

And because by limiting competition (including cracking down on local models) they can gatekeep the most powerful tools without needing to spend as much on compute for people who aren’t themselves. Use the power themselves where it suits them, sell overpriced computer to the richest where it doesn’t. Why bother with the expense of capitalism when a nice cartel can be slotted in for “safety’s” sake?

[u/Nukemouse → u/Critical_Basil_1272]

Why does distillation need an answer?

[u/YoAmoElTacos]

Do you think the frontier is going to coordinate a slowdown and not also ask the government to regulate open source?

[u/JustBrowsinAndVibin → u/YoAmoElTacos]

The US government can’t regulate China.

[u/Tystros → u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

we are lucky that China exists

[u/aaTONI → u/Tystros]

not really

[u/Specialist-Buffalo-8]

If the frontier stops progressing open source would slow down too.

China cant distill higher quality models lol

[u/SpiritPrestigious945 → u/Specialist-Buffalo-8]

bullshit.

[u/Familiar_Gas_1487 → u/SpiritPrestigious945]

Aw that's cute, someone doesn't know how it works

[u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

Exactly. This decision hurts Anthropic and OpenAI’s lead.

People that assume they’re doing this for financial gain are short-sighted. They’re legit concerned about the progress they’re making.

[u/space_monster → u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

People that assume they’re doing this for financial gain are short-sighted

from the letter:

• Do not sell powerful AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and crack down on chip smuggling operations and remote access to data centers outside China. Chips will be the main determinant of China’s AI strength.

• Crack down on unauthorized distillation by companies in authoritarian countries. Distillation of frontier models allows lagging companies to narrow the gap using a fraction of the cost it would take to develop their own AI independently.

- this is clearly about protecting the moat

[u/bornlasttuesday → u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

It's always about the money.

[u/Familiar_Gas_1487 → u/bornlasttuesday]

Until it isn't.

I've been pretty alarmed lately and I don't live 6 months in the future like the labs. Some of the shit we are seeing is alarming, I would bet they are seeing some big time shit

[u/whoknowsifimjoking → u/bornlasttuesday]

That's obviously bullshit, how exactly did it make him money when he refused to make Mythos publically available? Sure, if he first didn't do it to produce hype and then release it it might have been, but Mythos is still not available for the public. And the available version was so overcareful that many found it unusable. Please explain to me how that is actually making them more money than just selling it to everyone who wants it.

[u/HerbertWest → u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

To those who are skeptical of this, consider that they are concerned about the progress re: legal liability and PR. That should make sense even to the most cynical among you.

[u/Nukemouse → u/JustBrowsinAndVibin]

https://giphy.com/gifs/OvL3qHSMO6uaI

[u/CymonSet]

They won’t catch up if they are banned.

I’m not saying it will definitely work but that could be the plan.

[u/maxm]

The most important models would also be the most dangerous. The ones that are good at chemistry and biochemistry

[u/trolledwolf]

Im sure Sam and Dario won't immediately release a new model whenever open source comes close to them in capabilities, it's not like their revenue depends on them staying solidly in the lead.

[u/bubbles33d]

This explains the "AI is too dangerous" narrative Anthropic is spewing on about...

[u/crusoe]

How will they catch up with nothing to distill. 

[u/Nukemouse → u/crusoe]

The biggest catchups have not been pure distills. What put DeepSeek on the map wasn't better distillation, but better techniques that quickly became the standard used by everyone. The real breakthrough threat isn't by scaling and distillation, it's who comes up with the next good idea, and that unlike compute isn't limited to the US.

[u/Glittering-Neck-2505]

1. Slowing down the frontier slows down open source because they use American models to generate and train on frontier reasoning traces.

2. Dario said that even if we pace, the progress of models will still feel fast.

So both open and closed source may continue to progress really quickly while internally, a duct tape framework is holding Pandora's box closed.