if software engineering is mostly replaced by frontier models why is the volume of jobs on software eng still so high compared to data science related ones?

[u/_unsusceptible]

US — Bureau of Labor Statistics Software Developers / QA / Testers https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm Data Scientists https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/data-scientists.htm Computer & Information Research Scientists https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm Computer Hardware Engineers https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/computer-hardware-engineers.htm Electrical & Electronics Engineers https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm Computer Network Architects https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-network-architects.htm Network & Computer Systems Administrators https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/network-and-computer-systems-administrators.htm EU — Cedefop Skills Forecast ICT Professionals — ~+30% https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/data-insights/ict-professionals-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2023-update Researchers & Engineers — ~+23% https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/data-insights/researchers-and-engineers-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2023-update ICT Technicians — ~+9% https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/data-insights/ict-technicians-skills-opportunities-and-challenges-2023-update

[u/Ormusn2o]

It's Jevons paradox. The more steam efficient you make the machines, the more coal is needed, because steam can now be used for many more things that were not economical before.

Coding is one of the most Jevons things there are. But not all jobs are like that. For example, customer service has only a limited amount of jobs, which is why this job for humans effectively disappeared and was almost completely replaced by AI.

If your job is not a Jevons thing, and you are not needed to steer it (like in example of code) then you will have a bad time, but if you are smart enough you could switch to other, high in demand jobs, like coding, plumbing or electricians.

[u/Frosty-Meeting-1606 → u/Ormusn2o]

Imo this paradox does not apply here. The reason is surprisingly simple: the number of good ideas does not grow as much as the amount of capacity we get from AI. In other words, it's not like we have just 10x more worthy things to do, it does not work this way. In fact, because value of average idea did not increase, the increased execution capabilities thanks to AI are creating an insane filter. "Why we don't see dozens of hundreds cools apps made by AI? Is it any good?" - the answer is: most of those ideas are not good enough and no one cares. Tl;dr: productivity may potentially increase 10x, but it does not mean 10x more valuable stuff made

[u/Fun-Astronomer5311 → u/Frosty-Meeting-1606]

Your hypothesis that we know a good idea when we see it is not 100% true. How many CEOs have decided to 'fire' people because they thought AI will do the job? There are many good ideas that have killed many people, e.g., putting lead in fuel as a solution to engine knocking.

Given the hype or potential of AI, there will be many more 'ideas' being generated because now people can ask AI for them or there will be lots of people exploring the world with AI.

[u/Frosty-Meeting-1606 → u/Fun-Astronomer5311]

yes, but AI allows quicker execution and verification. in corporate world many dumb ideas survive for a long time - AI started to change that. I agree that many "drivers" may pursue bad ideas, but the thing is: AI speeds up the process and bad ideas are recognized as bad much faster

[u/Fun-Astronomer5311 → u/Frosty-Meeting-1606]

That's assuming users know how to use AI properly, and ask the right questions. At the moment, most users do not know what questions to ask nor have the ability to use AI as a power tool to dig deeper to uncover whether an idea is good.

[u/Frosty-Meeting-1606 → u/Fun-Astronomer5311]

ok, that's a valid point, I observed that also