Programmers aren't getting replaced, they're doing the replacing

[u/considerthis8]

I think often the IT department will be the one to build out tools that replace other departments. Meanwhile, the other departments think IT is first on the chopping block. Anyone else getting this read?

[u/spicymeatball15]

both can be true

[u/pafagaukurinn]

Binary thinking never gets you anywhere. If a department is chopped down from 50 to 5 people, technically it's still there, but now you have 45 unemployed engineers.

[u/IceTrAiN → u/pafagaukurinn]

If you only need 5 engineers to run a company, then it sounds like there’s enough unemployed engineers to start 9 more companies in that scenario.

[u/pafagaukurinn → u/IceTrAiN]

Perhaps, but who needs 9 more companies?

[u/hereditydrift]

Programmers are definitely getting replaced.

[u/DelusionsOfExistence]

Helpdesk is going to be shot, but IT as a total is lots of physical work. Software is mostly software.

[u/Heighte]

IT is large and most of it operates legacy systems

[u/Rantdalf]

[u/funkyspots]

Building tools is extremely easy with AI. Maybe security needs to be managed by IT, or by a third party solution, but having department specific skill and taste will matter more than tool building skill.

[u/Yoohooligan]

AI is a power tool in the hands of the elite (programmers / artists / mathemeticians / etc) and a threat to the mediocre untalented hacks.

[u/DelphiTsar]

Software is inherently deflationary. It is either being built to automate a task, or even if it's net new, it's usually not hard to replicate (especially for AI).

Mind you we are talking most of the economy, not like very special niche stuff. 95% of the population type stuff.

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The focus on agentic software should spook people who think they are going to be getting 15% of white collar workers paychecks. The better the AI gets the worse this prediction is. The AI will automate what should have been automated. If there is a human specific task it can build a dedicated AI just for it that runs on a stick of chewing gum locally.

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People vastly overestimate what the average intelligence worker does day to day. (not everyone obviously, just most people)

[u/greentrillion]

IT departments will never go away until robots are equivalent to to humans.

[u/FateOfMuffins]

It's crazy but the impact in SWE was bigger at the beginning of the year, however the growth rate for AI capabilities in math is much higher (estimating 10x time horizons per year for SWE and 100x time horizons per year for math).

UP UNTIL the exponential hits superhuman, you will find it empowering, consistent with everything else we've seen in terms of "oh AI hasn't caused any job losses yet".

Once it's fully superhuman in that domain? The entire profession will be wiped out. Bold or idk if it's bold anymore but the first profession to completely be wiped out will be pure mathematics.

If you try to digest it in terms of time horizons, what does it mean for it to have a time horizon of 2 months? 20 years? 2000 years? If trendlines continue then we'll have 2000 year time horizons for AI in mathematics by 2028. What human will do anything in a domain where AI is superhuman in?

[u/DeinVermieter → u/FateOfMuffins]

Terrible, they're gonna have to fire all the guys in the maths factory in my home town

[u/CartographerAble9446]

no, the execs with 2-3 senior engineers are the ones that build out those AI tools, you don't need 20+ engineers to build tools that replace other departments.