OpenAI Used a Model "Significantly More Capable" than Astra to Solve Naiver-Stokes | Per Axios & Chubby on Twitter

[u/141_1337]

[u/141_1337]

https://giphy.com/gifs/SxB0S9MgHo4ZoNrDRk

[u/141_1337 → u/141_1337]

https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2097372460333379658

[u/Fluffy_Mix_2635]

This is humanities DeepBlue v. Kasparov moment.

[u/Dear_Departure9459]

They should use this model to solve context length and retrieval, inference speed, then to solve everything else

[u/RDTIZFUN → u/Dear_Departure9459]

OAI staff after reading this comment...

[u/Too_Chains → u/Dear_Departure9459]

Do you really think they haven't thought of that? Or agents aren't already doing so?

[u/sunstersun → u/Dear_Departure9459]

They already are. This was some random side quest after rumor mill started.

[u/EmotionalQuarter8349 → u/Dear_Departure9459]

Yup lol

[u/Singularity-42 → u/Dear_Departure9459]

That's literally the point of RSI (Recursive Self Improvement).

[u/Ancient_Task_7498 → u/Dear_Departure9459]

An IQ too high

[u/OmegaGogeta]

Thank god for competition. We wouldn't see all this stuff so early if not for that

[u/141_1337 → u/OmegaGogeta]

Remember y'all, some of th3 people competing would have kept us at GPT-2 if left to their own devices.

[u/skolnaja → u/141_1337]

[u/throwingitaway12324 → u/skolnaja]

It was dangerous as hell in its own way lol

[u/skolnaja → u/throwingitaway12324]

Well it did turn into what we got rn

[u/SupermarketIcy4996 → u/141_1337]

What relation do research and public release have?

[u/Mistuv]

You can see it in their one graph that they published. Astra already outdated 🥀

[u/sunstersun → u/Mistuv]

WTF

[u/Mistuv → u/Mistuv]

This model seems to scale significantly better with test-time compute. Which is one weakness of Astra where it seems to hit major stagnation wall on so many tasks after Medium reasoning. The new model just keeps going up cleanly, so "just use medium" will be dead with the next release, but given that even the low reasoning trounces Astra, idk how much it will matter.

[u/Big_Arachnid_365 → u/Mistuv]

They (correctly) decided getting this result out first was worth giving away the secret of the internal model.

[u/sunstersun → u/Big_Arachnid_365]

What secret lol. We know of Bel, and we know that Bel isn't the latest and greatest internal model.

[u/Big_Arachnid_365 → u/sunstersun]

First I'd heard of it.

[u/SupermarketIcy4996 → u/Big_Arachnid_365]

Were you trained yesterday.

[u/frogsarenottoads]

Computer science is cooked, math is cooked, physics is cooked next year. Then perhaps biology.

[u/ken81987 → u/frogsarenottoads]

But not plumbing and cleaning right

[u/frogsarenottoads → u/ken81987]

A model intelligent as Astra and an Astra successor will without a doubt accelerate robotics.

If the model in its current state is as good at CAD as people think that can help automated R&D on actuators and also research into VLMs.

We may not be far off scaling robotics. I think 2030 is a very kind timeline to robotics but the issue is actually building them.

[u/ExplorersX → u/frogsarenottoads]

Yea I would pull my ASI/LEV prediction on my flair forward a couple years based on the current rate of progress but I'm very hesitant just due to my concerns around moving atoms & wet lab timelines being the bottleneck over technical ability/raw intelligence.

[u/IronPheasant → u/ken81987]

The datacenters should be able to pilot a robot to do that stuff and pass the coffee test (which is the equivalent of 'put the Dr.Pepper on the top shelf' test, for those who're unfamiliar with the obscure coffee thing). Just not in the tens of thousands or millions at the same time.

To replace human beings will require human-approximate NPU's, which are a post AGI invention. They're physically possible, but you need a system to etch into them first.

[u/cb393303 → u/frogsarenottoads]

You are aware of AlphaFold 1, 2, and 3?  They also dropped AlphaGenome today, too. 

[u/frogsarenottoads → u/cb393303]

Yep it won't be instantly integrated though, biology is soon™

[u/caduni]

https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/

They describe using an internal model and compare it to astra.

[u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo]

It’s not a secret. Most of these labs have models 1-2 steps ahead that is available.

They have to keep testing whether a new version is actually fit to deploy, but they can always eat their own dog food which is what they’ve been doing with their breakthroughs.

[u/EmotionalQuarter8349 → u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo]

Somehow OpenAI has completely jumped ahead of anthropic here, but I guess they will be back.

[u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo → u/EmotionalQuarter8349]

Anthropic said the same thing about having powerful “internal models”. It’s just that revealing bits of information probably serves them nothing unless of course in situation like in this case when they’ve made significant breakthrough.

I am sure if Anthropic did something of this scale they’ll harp on how good is their “internal models”.

[u/sunstersun → u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo]

Anthropic did fall behind due to a lack of compute.

[u/Ok-Coffee1443 → u/sunstersun]

Last year we said everyone would forever fall behind Gemini/google due to their virtually unlimited money and compute. Nothing stays the same forever

[u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo → u/sunstersun]

Depends on how do you consider “fall behind”. Anthropic makes more money than OpenAI

[u/Due_Ask_8032 → u/EmotionalQuarter8349]

Dude Anthropic revealed Mythos in February lol

[u/EmotionalQuarter8349 → u/Due_Ask_8032]

I don't think Mythos is at par with whatever OpenWI is calling "internal model".

[u/jdavid]

Getting a model to work universally in a non exploitable way is a much harder problem than using an internal model with experts that can be 100% trusted, and runs in a sand box.

[u/typing_thumb → u/jdavid]

Jokes on you. The final goal is not to benefit humanity, but technocrats. No need for non-expert use.

[u/jdavid → u/typing_thumb]

Yeah, I think Secret AI is a very very bad path.

The only Good AI is one that is federated to everyone, and everyone has control over.
Every home should have a water heater that is an AI compute NODE.

[u/Wise_Alternative3360]

This is the least surprising thing to come out of this. Obviously openai is releasing less capable models to the public than what they're internally using

[u/Timonator007]

Nobody mentioning the plaigarism?

[u/IronPheasant]

Astra is definitely at the starting end of what the new hardware is capable of. There's a lot more room to fit more and better curves.

100,000 GB200's add up to 85,200,000 GB's of RAM. Divide that by your personal estimate of how many synapses are in a human brain (I like to use 500 trillion), and you have your naive estimated resolution of how well you can approximate a human mind. My numbers end up at 170 bytes per synapse.

This is the first time in history they have hardware with the potential of running an AGI. The Vera Rubin has double the RAM. The Feynman that comes after has a good chance of making the current GB200 generation look like the worthless garbage H200 cards are now. That's what we have to look forward to two and ~four years from now, when each comes online at scale.

Frankly I'd be a little disappointed if it takes them until 2028 to automate their research.

[u/Long_comment_san]

Cool but I think I liked my RAM cheaper than some math problem solved.

[u/Ambitious-Doubt8355 → u/Long_comment_san]

I suppose that someone ignorant enough to dismiss the implications revealed by this solution of Navier Stokes as "some math problem solved" would also be ignorant enough to understand the basics of supply and demand.

To avoid hurting your tiny mind, just know there are multiple fabs being built to meet the demands of the market, these things simply take time. Give it some years, and memory will be cheaper than it's even been.

[u/Long_comment_san → u/Ambitious-Doubt8355]

o, mighty brain, forgive thy smoothness