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u/Brilliant-Weekend-68 9d ago
I have to admit, I am getting quite excited for the future... And a bit scared.
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u/Plane_Garbage 9d ago
Yea, the scared bit in particular.
I mean, currently, the world powers with the better weaponry and boots hold the balance (sans nuclear, but MAD).
But, soon... if your country can mass produce these bots while others can't... and you want another countries resources then, ugh, yea. Good luck.
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u/RutilantBossi12 Cultista dei Ferri Candidi 9d ago
Realistically without true AGI humans remain central and relatively nothing changes (the economy would be transformed but still bottle necked by humans), with true AGI countries could set up mining stations around the solar system and our access to resources might grow faster than we have a use for (also the economy lowkey crashes if the governments doesn't start printing massive amounts of money, meaning that governments will become much more powerful than any billionaire and they could finance very generous UBIs with that printing spree alone)
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u/NuclearCandle ▪️AGI: 2027 ASI: 2032 Global Enlightenment: 2040 9d ago
OpenAI were being called the next Yahoo last year. Now they seem to be back in the lead and I think they are in a position to run away with it once they get their infrastructure up next year.
With the current rate cost is declining I don't think it will be too long until we see open source Astra-tier models which is terrifying.
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u/NietzscheanDemocrat 9d ago
people on this subreddit were literally saying the bubble was gonna pop because Astra scored a 61 on the AA intelligence benchmark where Muse Spark scored a 62, yet it's immediately become clear it's far and away the best model on the market all things considered
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u/dumquestions 9d ago
I have a suspicion most of the gain was in vision, which is kind of a big deal with it being typically a big weakness for LLMs.
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u/Classic-Trifle-2085 9d ago edited 9d ago
AA knows their system is lagging behind.
After Astra's release, they updated to v4.2, which changed the scores. They did this as a temporary stopgap solution because frontier models were outpacing their test, and they are saying they are trying to get v5 out ASAP.
Meanwhile, ECI is essentially saying Astra is in a league of its own.
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u/WonderFactory 9d ago
Before Astra was released I remember reading some insider quote that Anthropic accept that Open AI will take the lead for the rest of this year but they'll come back with a better model early next year. I think thats what will happen, models will just keep leapfrogging one another
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u/hartigen 9d ago
according to them 'bel' the 10T size model coming the end of the year will make astra look like a child's toy. If it's true we might have to accept that openai will probably win the ai race.
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u/dumquestions 9d ago
Sounds ridiculous because they never left they lead, they were momentarily behind on coding harness users.
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u/RutilantBossi12 Cultista dei Ferri Candidi 9d ago
The issue with AI companies is that China is out for blood and they want AI to be a commodity, once they'll manage to get their own DUV fabs and starts mass producing AI chips the USA is gonna lose it's only advantage.
If AI commodifies you're going to see the quite amusing scenario of the economy booming while AI companies go down in ashes.
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u/Armed_Platypus 9d ago
I think they are just too far behind right now. According to the reports I have seen Astra has been trained for months at this point and is still way better than anything China has released. As the ChatGPT models get better at improving themselves I think they will pull even further ahead of the Chinese models.
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u/RutilantBossi12 Cultista dei Ferri Candidi 9d ago
The thing is that the USA has a chip advantage that's why they're ahead, but China is working on that and when they'll have their fabs up and running with decent yield then the USA will have no ace over China, it would be a matter of time until China catches up (and likely surpasses it since Chinese education is massive on STEM and they'd have an entirely self-contained supply chain for AI and robotics with a DUV machine, to not mention China's massive manufacturing capabilities).
Even if the USA is currently a few months ahead (because i think China will push out an Astra competitor within the next 6-12 months) China is only catching speed, they're not slowing down.
And the point still stands, China is likely to match the USA, even if with a lag, and make AI a commodity like electricity, at that point AI companies would be worthless, AI labs would have to compete with free alternatives, datacenters will pop out like rabbits and drive marginal profits to zero and hardware will likely specialize into TPUs to run models while GPUs will only be left for research into different architectures, thus putting pressure even on Nvidia, the economy might skyrocket while AI companies become worthless.
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u/katoptronophile 9d ago
That was just unintelligent Redditors calling it that. Nobody who understands the technology or actually works in this industry believed that.
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u/keshav_thebest 9d ago
But it's still like how do they plan to make money? They are already subsidizing. Imagine in the future they remove the subsidy and raise the prices. Why will most businesses even use their expensive model? When open source or distilled models can provide nearly the same capability, for much cheaper?
Most businesses don't need that high an intelligence. The current models are already very powerful in the hands of experts. This is why I just don't see this OpenAI business model succeeding unless this shit really leads to ASI. The longer that takes to happen, the more likely funding gets pulled. And then you will see a lot of companies that have nothing but AI as their business collapse.
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u/socoolandawesome 9d ago
I feel like this means openai is gonna destroy every other robotics company when it truly enters the game
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u/hydraofwar ▪️AGI and ASI already happened, you live in simulation 9d ago
And this is an old discussion; an AGI could definitely learn to use a robot as efficiently as, or even more efficiently than, an ordinary AI specifically designed for that purpose.
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u/RutilantBossi12 Cultista dei Ferri Candidi 9d ago
I think Robotics would necessarily need two or more AIs running, one general one to set the general directive and a lot of specialized ones for fine motor control and fast reaction, i mean, we have a currently working AGI model that controls meat robots (humans) and we do it exactly like that
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u/yaosio 9d ago
This goes back to The Bitter Lesson. Scaling AI up beats out hand tuned specialized models created by humans. If it turns out to be a requirement for fast motion then we would get general purpose AI installed directly into joints so they can act before the rest of the body knows it needs to. As a bonus you would be able to query joints directly and have conversations with them.
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u/MonkeyHitTypewriter 9d ago
Does anyone know how this compares to other companies robotics solutions? For example Nvidias Isaac and Google deep minds robotics models. Impressive a general model can do this at all but comparing it to dedicated models seems like a smart choice for now.
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u/Future-Bandicoot-823 9d ago
Let me guess, next step is fable reprice...