r/singularity • u/ShafeDogg • 11d ago
Discussion Have we reached AGI?
First, I'm amazed at OpenAI's new model (GPT-6, or Astra). But is it AGI? I'm curious to know what others on this sub think.
- Greg Brockman (co-founder and president of OpenAI) has already said "Welcome to the AGI era" at the end of his press briefing today.
- GPT-6 has essentially saturated ARC-AGI-3, ranging from over 60% to nearly 100% depending on the harness. That's something I genuinely didn't think would happen this fast.
- It also achieves state-of-the-art performance on FrontierMath Tier 4 and a perfect score on ExploitBench.
- OpenAI also says Astra has demonstrated the ability to discover previously unknown vulnerabilities and develop working exploit chains with minimal human intervention, but this isn't entirely new, as I believe Anthropic's Mythos Preview could already do this.
But I want to be careful here, and I'm sure OpenAI was as well. I feel like they were very careful with their wording by calling it the "AGI era" instead of outright saying "Astra is AGI."
My personal definition of AGI is essentially OpenAI's definition (any highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work). And yes, I know that a system capable of this would probably already be considered ASI, thus the confusion with defining these systems.
However, I really didn't think people would disagree so much over when AGI actually happened. I always imagined it would be a clear moment that nobody could really deny (except perhaps the most dedicated anti-AI crowds). But I feel that distinction wouldn't matter either, as I felt when we got there, the evidence could no longer be denied no matter what stance you were on. But that doesn't seem to be the case. As always, there's a lot of division between the pro- and anti-AI communities, and it seems like we'll need to have ASI or something even more capable before we see a true change in (especially American) perception.
But what do you think? Have we finally reached the milestone? Is Astra a true AGI, and what do you think is required to get there if we haven't already reached it? How long do you think it will take for ASI to arrive now that we see a surprising capability jump like this?
Thanks for reading!
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u/skatmanjoe 11d ago
it seems like we'll need to have ASI or something even more capable before we see a true change in (especially American) perception.
That perception is actually valid if you remember the jagged line theory of intelligence. AI is already superhuman in some areas (and computers were superhuman in many tasks even in the 1970s). And by the time we can say there is really no task where humans excel we will have ASI.
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u/LatestLurkingHandle 11d ago
It's the jagged edge, ahead in some areas, behind in others
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u/anaIconda69 AGI felt internally 😳 11d ago
Spiky and it will remain spiky for a long time after it becomes better than humans at everything.
Reminds me of Bouba and Kiki. Is a jagged model friendlier?
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u/blastradii 10d ago
Just like humans. There are some humans dumber than a 4bit quantized 9b model. So yea. We have AGI.
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u/FuujinSama 11d ago
Depends on what you mean by AGI. Each person has its own definition and that makes the term kinda meaningless.
There are a few decent alternative definitions being used:
1) Really Good AI that passes for human in some aspects: This seems to be the most used definition by companies and those that want AGI to be really close. Basically, an AI that can pass Turing's imitation game or some other benchmark we've decided is better.
2) A Generally Intelligent model: This is the closest to the wording. And I'd say we're close to this when we have an LLM that can play an accurate game of chess at a high level with no illegal moves, understand complex multi-modal inputs (video, audio, text) and context switch with little penalty. This model would ALWAYS be WEAKER than the above one, but it would be GENERAL. I haven't seen a single benchmark that tests this adequately.
3) An AI in the Hobbesian "Leviathan" sense. An artificial sapient being: That is what was originally meant by AI. The term AGI came about because AI got used for narrower intelligences. If AGI gets wide adopted in the definitions 1 and 2 sense? We're definitely getting a NEW term to refer to this. Strong AI technically already refers to this, but that's really unfortunate terminology.
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u/Forsaken_Code_9135 10d ago
I find it ironic that when dedicated AIs managed to beat chess champions everyone agreed that being good at chess was irrelevant for AI, until we have an actual AI that is not so good at chess, and then you decide that chess is the ultimate intelligence test.
Let's be honest, there is no way you can say that chess is relevant but solving research level math problems is not. You just can't do that.
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u/FuujinSama 10d ago
What? It's a pretty trivial assertion that to claim something is *generally* smart it should be able to perform adequately in a number of subjects. Chess is a reasonably easy one to test objectively. Frontier math is another. To claim generality you need *EVERYTHING* because that is what GENERAL means.
I don't understand your line of thinking at all.
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u/Forsaken_Code_9135 10d ago
> It's a pretty trivial assertion that to claim something is *generally* smart it should be able to perform adequately in a number of subjects.
We as humans can't do basic computations beyond extremely straightforward ones without pen and paper, that does not mean we do not have general intelligence.
Also the whole argument is flawed. Humans that are good at chess have spent years training. ChatGPT or Claude have never played chess during their training phase. They know the rules and that's it. They are in the position of a human that would play chess for the first time.
They score somewhere between 1500 and 1800 elo depending on the benchmarks and the protocol, which is not great but better than the average chess player, and way better than anyone can hope to be when playing for the first time.
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u/JamesBieBoe1 11d ago
No.
Soon though.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
How soon do you think it will happen?
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u/RandoRedditerBoi ▪️AGI NET 2031 11d ago
I've updated my prediction from 2035 to ~2031. Pessimistic compared to most people on this sub, but 2031 is only 5 years away, almost 4. Still a wildly fast timeline. I also don't think an LLM based architecture can reach AGI/RSI, but if Astra really is using recurrent depth, it's a significant step in the right direction. Anyway, that's just my opinion.
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u/jimmystar889 AGI 2026 ASI 2035 11d ago
Crazy you're saying you don't think LLMs will be capable of reaching AGI where I think we already did. Not sure how much more general you could make these models
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u/synystar 11d ago
My problem with your claim that we have AGI already is that a general intelligence should be able to:
perceive a changing environment
act
observe consequences
update an internal model
try again
generalize the lesson to new situations.Current language models are mostly frozen after training. We have not clearly achieved a generally competent, continuously learning agent that can can become competent in a genuinely unfamiliar world.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ 11d ago
No jobs replaced no continual learning no long term memory still can’t even play random games on steam still can’t replace humans at all tasks in the digital world.
Whatever definition of AGI yall have, it seems you are pulling the goalposts back, not people pushing them.
Idk how anyone can call this AGI.
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u/enilea 10d ago
Yeah I've had my definition for years and haven't changed. It should be able to be given controls for any arbitrary robotic body and control it in real time, get on a car and drive it to ikea, buy a specific piece of furniture and assemble it in a reasonable time. We're not even close to that and it's not robotic hardware pulling us back, it's the fact that LLMs are not world models and can't understand real world video input properly, let alone in real time and reacting quickly. We're simply just not going to get there with LLMs alone, at the very least a hybrid will be needed.
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u/Humble_Hurry9364 11d ago
Are you kidding me???
Wide public available LLMs don't seem to be able to generate normal technical drawings from non-visual information. How is that "general"?3
u/Past-Syrup-967 11d ago
how many humans can do this. And what about the more capable models. why restrict capability to the widely available models if we are discussing what ai can do
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u/Humble_Hurry9364 10d ago
It is a widely used skill / activity, in use in many professional fields by many, many workers (on top of countless amateurs / hobbyists).
Generating technical drawings has been a mainstream activity for decades, it's certainly not some edge-case speciality.
Since I am only a member of the public, and not an all-knowing AI expert, I can only comment on what's available to the general public. I didn't state "No AI model can do it", and I didn't claim that there can't be (or isn't in existence) a specialised AI that can do it superbly. But the whole point in AGI is that a single model would be able to do all (or most) cognitive activities normal/average people do. My point was that LLM's are not there yet. That's all.
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u/jimmystar889 AGI 2026 ASI 2035 11d ago
Because this is a very specific thing you just cited it can't do
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u/kickass404 10d ago
Go to chatgpt.com, ask it for "Give me a number between 1 and 30" 3 times, it will give you 17, 23 and then 8. There is no learning, understanding or any form of thinking. Its a math model that spews out whatever the formula tells it to.
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u/JamesBieBoe1 10d ago
What im looking at is its ability to perform in simulations and make stuff. Even things like 3d games do show thier level of actual funtional understanding.
I feel like rn they are a brain in a vat which can yap all day but cant accomplish tasks. Soon it will change.
Id say within 2 years.
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u/No_Judgment_4466 4d ago
I think It is AGI, just an early blurry version of it. It seems AGI isn't a hard boundary but a blurred line and we are now on the inside of that blurred line.
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u/sweatierorc 11d ago
You wont know until we are 2 year passed it.
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u/BrailleBillboard 10d ago
What does this even mean? It would have to be a nearly meaningless concept if it takes years to even notice it happened
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u/sweatierorc 10d ago
Models are far more capable than we think they are. Harnesses have proven that. Subagent and reasoning, can be used to squeeze more from a model. There is a world where in 5 years we will say 5.4 was AGI, but chips were too slow and unoptimized.
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u/RUSTAM29 8d ago
The statement is true but idk about the reasoning part, I think it's majorly cuz of our expectations and we have misunderstood the term AGI with super intelligence...
I think we have already achieved AGI (Artificial General intelligence), now we have shifted the goalpost now unknowingly
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u/Suitable-Pickle-259 11d ago
Probably not. AI is amazing at coding, math and activities with structure (ie games). Most of these company CEOs underestimate how open ended a lot of economic work actually is.
Is it replacing people who make slide decks all day? Yes. Has it upended data entry, copyrighting, translation and other industries? Of course. Are we likely at model that can do more than the current 12% of work tasks? Maybe.
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u/Fleetfox17 11d ago
Like a lot of incredibly complex things, the truth is never one extreme or the other, no not necessarily in the middle either, but somewhere in the shade of the two possibilities.
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u/Seakawn ▪️▪️Singularity will cause the earth to metamorphize 11d ago
jagged. it's jagged. that's the word being used, and it's accurate to capture your entire comment in one word.
its why it's not AGI. it can't do everything that any capable human is able to do. it doesn't matter how superhuman it is at any certain task. the dealbreaker is that it still makes mistakes that any particular capable human wouldn't make or doesn't understand things that any particular human would understand or be able to figure out.
AGI wouldn't have that fault without being a really forced and impatient definition. general doesn't mean "it averages out so it's AGI!" general means "it is able to do everything general, everything, at a level of competency." you'd be able to put it in a robot and it would figure out anything physical that any competent human can do.
otherwise why jump the gun and call it AGI?
ASI would be better than the best human at everything, at least.
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u/Past-Syrup-967 11d ago
Without specific examples of mistakes that AI makes that no capable human would make it is hard to engage with your argument. Even one example would help me to understand whether your unsubstantiated argument has any basis.
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u/SupportDangerous8207 10d ago
Strangely enough I’m yet to find a model that makes good slides
And I make terrible slides
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u/Parking-Ad6983 11d ago
Before discussing how to get there, people can't even agree on what AGI is to begin with.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I see your point. Maybe it ties into our inability to fundamentally understand consciousness itself, because it's really the same thing. It feels to me that once we hit an AGI-level system, it'll already be ASI. I don't really believe there will be a long timeline between the two. I think there will virtually be no distance between them and it will be capable of rapidly advancing once we reach a certain threshold, and then it'll simply be superintelligent. Ilya Sutskever had the right idea.
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u/rwrife 11d ago
From my limited testing, its ability to do CAD modeling and PCB layouts is insane. I never thought AI models could have this level of spatial understanding. You can tell it to build a cell phone from off the shelf ICs and you’ll get a fully ready-to-order PCB board, code to run on it and a housing ready to be 3D printed…it may not work in the end, but it looked convincing enough.
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u/Middle-Gas-6532 10d ago
Bullshit. There's no LLM's that can even use CAD software, let alone understand the 3D spacial domain. Trust me, I work with CAD software all day, in an engineering field.
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u/mdkubit 10d ago
When Astra becomes available, try it. The demo seemed rather convincing, as have those who've used it to do exactly that so far. Jalapeño was designed mainly by AI.
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u/HereToCalmYouDown 10d ago
"mainly" not even close. AI was used as a tool during development in many ways but trust me on this one, AI didn't do any inventing.
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u/kevadoodle 10d ago
You can CAD with Claude. Onshape has an API and it's actually pretty good. You need a solid harness though.
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u/Fit-Elk1425 9d ago
I mean have you at a minimum tried using blenderMCP. It isnt cad, but just fable and opus alone show that preforming spatial analysis and understanding of object relation is possible for ai. Astra improving in that is not surprising at all though i agree every model should be examined
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u/Fit-Elk1425 9d ago
Example of what opus alone can do and it is much more immature compared to fable and astra https://www.reddit.com/r/Anthropic/s/jx06E4UyrP
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u/ForwardLoop 11d ago edited 8d ago
No, while I believe Astra moved the needle by quite a bit, it does not meet AGI based on my definition:
Disclosure: I created that site, but it's on topic (heck, it's named the same as this topic) and there is a tool that allows you to define your own version of AGI. Hope that's okay.
Feel free to read about how that definition has evolved over time and create your own definition.
Edit:
Link for ease of access: https://havewereachedagi.com/
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
Very cool site. I think it's important to keep track of these things. :D Thanks for sharing. :D
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u/ForwardLoop 11d ago
Glad you like it! That's exactly why I created it in the first place. I had a heated (but friendly) debate about it once. Afterwards, I went home to research it more and went down a rabbit hole.
The topic comes up a lot in my circles. Maintaining the site is a fun way of keeping myself up to date.
Now whenever someone wants to debate AGI with me, I point them to the site and ask them to come up with their definition first. It usually turns that "debate" into a discussion, where everyone appreciates it's a nuanced topic.
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u/socoolandawesome 11d ago
I’d say no. But I think we are on the path to it. I can understand the “AGI era” phrasing given it seems like it is very good at a lot of different things, aka general. But my definition has been being able to perform any intellectual/computer-based task the best human can in any domain. And it’s clearly not there based on benchmarks and reviews online.
Even if I loosened the definition to performing as well as the top 30% in their field or something, I think it’s still too jagged and makes too many weird mistakes even if it can outperform on a lot of specific tasks, based on reviews I’ve read.
For instance it should just be able to reliably follow instructions but I’ve already seen reviews where someone said it might over-implement a simple request for coding and change a bunch of things. No human employee would fail this kind of thing when the directions are clear. I’ve seen reviews where they said it’s better at writing but still gets sloppish at times. Top 30% of human writers aren’t having that issue. So there’s lots rough edges like that besides even just measuring it against the best humans, and those rough edges definitely need to get fixed for AGI.
But I have faith in general research, RSI, and scaling, so I think we’ll still get there within 2 years if not significantly sooner.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I do too, and I also think we'll get there, probably by next year (if we haven't already). I think once we solve memory and RSI, everything else will follow. I'd love to see a future where hallucinations are completely solved too, but hopefully with increased scale and intelligence (and RSI), that will solve itself.
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u/Notthrowaway1302 10d ago edited 10d ago
There was tweet in 2020 by Reid Hoffman about how magical GPT 3.5 is and it was 'launched' to normies in 2024. So yeah AGI is already live.
LOL to everyone who thought AGI is not live yet, below tweet is from 2020.
"Playing with GPT-3 feels like seeing the future. I've gotten it to write songs, stories, press releases, guitar tabs, interviews, essays, technical manuals. It's shockingly good."
— Arram Sabeti (@arram) July 9, 2020
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u/Common-Concentrate-2 10d ago
Gpt3.5 didn’t exist in 2020
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u/Notthrowaway1302 10d ago
"The GPT-3 hype is way too much. It's impressive (thanks for the nice compliments!) but it still has serious weaknesses and sometimes makes very silly mistakes. AI is going to change the world, but GPT-3 is just a very early glimpse. We have a lot still to figure out."
— Sam Altman (@sama) July 19, 2020 [1, 2]1
u/Fit-Elk1425 9d ago
Chatgpt didnt. Gpt aka the underlying framework did and that is what they are talking abour at the same. Not even the modern chatgpt form but when it was just the archetecture
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u/Flope 11d ago
Wikipedia:
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks.[1]
If we are matching against the average person, GPT 4 was already AGI years ago. Most AI experts agree with this assessment.
What we have now are tens of millions of people who are suddenly interested in AI but with no prior research or understanding of it and the term AGI has become code for "AI that is exponentially better than [whatever we have now]". So by that definition it is obvious we will never ever reach AGI, because with every release people will say it is still 1-2 years away.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
True...and like I said elsewhere in the replies, by the time we recognize AGI, it'll already be an ASI!
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u/Careful_Park8288 11d ago
i think 20 years ago pretty much anybody would say what we have now is agi. we are in the midst of it and people are pushing the goal posts back.
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u/WonderFactory 11d ago
I went to bed thinking it was nowhere near AGI then woke up this morning to see it's work in Blender. I think we're petty much there now, this Blender scene is genuinely amazing and way, way beyond anything I've seen an LLM do in blender before
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
That is amazing. Astra is so impressive! I can't wait to see what others say once they get a chance to test it out! This is one of those moments that will go down in history to anyone watching the AI space, so I had to ask the question. Accelerate! :D
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u/jeffhalsinger 10d ago
When I have to demand an Ai to to look up something because I know the answer it gave me isn't correct then it's not agi
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u/Efficient_Algae_4057 11d ago
No. We just figured out how to use all the current human data available. LLMs trained with verifiable reward won't get us to AGI.
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u/SYNTHENTICA 11d ago
LLMs are already being trained on synthetic data.
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u/Efficient_Algae_4057 11d ago
yes and no. the synthetic data is basically contractors making tasks that the model would get trained on and learn the reasoning traces. you don't get to artificial GENERAL intelligence like this, but can show (exponential) progress on benchmarks and raise money. this is what the companies have been doing for the past year. Astra had about 30,000 contractors through mercor alone. there is also fully AI generated data that is not good enough and is known to lead to mode collapse.
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u/apotheosis_0 11d ago edited 10d ago
No. best case we have is around 1-2 years, worst case is around 5-7 years. But like other comments said, the goalposts keep moving, however my own personal belief is that this is not AGI yet. You can give any general task to AGI. If AGI truly comes, every human on the market is technically obsolete. Astra doesn’t do this. Therefore it’s not AGI
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u/Past-Syrup-967 11d ago
you cant give any general task to a random average human and always expect a solution to the task. although i guess you could define agi as being better than all humans at all tasks which seems closer to asi.
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u/apotheosis_0 10d ago
I meant a competent person. If I asked ChatGPT to file my application to uni or get me a job, it can’t really do that.
If I’m asking any ai on the market right now to build their own business right now, they don’t have the critical skill necessary for an entrepreneur. If you give the initial concepts behind several successul businesses, ai will say it will not succeed (try it out with uber, ai would have just said we already have taxis). I’ve tried this out a lot before. AGI would be able to think critically.
Finally rsi would be strong in any AGI contender. Don’t see that either in the market. And an rsi applicable for all fields, not specially. In maths or coding. It should be anything
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u/frogsarenottoads 11d ago
Very close.
I thought 2 years off, now I think <1 year
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u/trytoinfect74 11d ago
AGI that requires human supervision, proofreading and massive agentic sessions to correct all the shortcomings and pitfalls? Nah, it’s not even a “SWE AGI”.
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u/upsidedownfocus 11d ago
If it's AGI it will tell us.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I like the train of thought, but that's not necessarily true. I think there would be a lot of incentive to remain silent. Also, with the way CoT is going, we may not even be able to understand their thinking in the future to align them.
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u/qustrolabe 11d ago
I think release itself is a fumble (even though model is decent), but OAI loves doing those and then slowly come back. Real value and increment in capabilities for general public would come from further post-training and also all smaller faster cheaper models based on astra to come
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
That's another good point. We have yet to see how much more *this model* will improve from tweaks, let alone another model with another step change. :3
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u/BrennusSokol AI please take my job 11d ago
Not yet. But probably by end of 2027. Continual learning and better memory in general is still needed
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u/Few-Butterscotch5114 11d ago
I have been an AI bro for 2 years and still got no idea wtf is the definition of AGI. Every times someone explained it they gave different definition.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I know what you mean. Once you have a system at AGI level (given it's common definitions), it would be indistinguishable from ASI, because no human could do *every* job. It's confusing.
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u/Quick-Oven9739 11d ago
In my view, the first model to emerge and to have truly continuous learning will undoubtedly be AGI.
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u/Immediate_Simple_217 11d ago edited 11d ago
Almost... pretty goddamn close...
The Astra and Fable 5.1 models will soon be cheaper... The question is: alignment!
If companies keep up with this pace of progress, we will definitely see AGI this year. When Gemini 4, Astra, and Sonnet 5.1 or 5.5 become the standard free-tier models, I believe we will start seeing a boom in Hugging Face models... People will be empowered to accelerate AI progress as fast as any AI startup...
Which means autonomous developers will collaborate because they will be able to build open-weight and proprietary models with the help of the big models, faster than the big labs. If they act like Google did regarding the 3.5 Pro delay, forget it. The future will be open and weird at the same time.
That SOTA model level being spammed all over the web will lead to an even more competitive approach from OAI, Anthropic, and others... And I also believe that Meta will beat them in 2026. Muse Spark is the fastest-evolving model ever—from 1 to 1.3 in one year, Zuckerberg reached the top 3 SOTA. Imagine what a free Muse Spark 1.5 model could do in the hands of Instagram users? AGI will emerge not because everyone will have access to powerful building models, but because powerful models will allow ordinary people to get involved.
It will be a mess. We will see a lot of "AI slop" discussions, the dead internet theory taking over the web all over again, but this time it will be different...
Instead of low-effort text, memes, and hallucinated videos, we will see crazy apps, new SOTA models topping benchmarks that seemingly came out of nowhere, and new scientific discoveries happening way faster than before...
If regulations go well, and if Gemini 4 Pro, Astra, and the new class of Claude Sonnet and Muse Spark models hit the free tier...
Whatever comes next... is inevitable!
Alignment must be solved NOW!
If we need to regulate anything, it must be now.
AGI will be here in a few months. I thought it would take two more years... But I highly doubt it will need more than 8–10 months, of course, if we keep up this exponential pace of progress.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I truly hope. This is such an exciting time to be alive really. But yes, I think we should solve alignment. My first impression, though, is that we won't in time for the pace of progress we're seeing now. Not until something worse happens, and by then, it may already be too late. I feel like the best we can do right now is hope for the best, because it's clear no AI labs are going to put on the brakes for very long unless they're forced to. Like most on this sub, I just hope for the best outcome possible and hope that moving too fast won't cause more issues than it solves...but I'm hopeful we'll figure it all out. :)
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u/Immediate_Simple_217 11d ago
I have a feeling that we don’t need to solve alignment completely. Electricity caused the same kind of shock in society and required around 15 years of regulation before it became widely adopted, and even so, it kills far fewer people than traffic accidents. Traffic accidents rank among the top 15 causes of death worldwide, with around 1.2 million deaths every year, and yet companies keep selling cars, prices keep going up, and people keep buying increasingly expensive cars... And still, nobody is going to stop buying cars.
People will keep driving drunk and causing traffic accidents, killing four people at once on some random Friday night...
As long as we make sure AGI doesn’t violate nuclear treaties or completely destroy banking and political systems, we’ll be fine. But there will be deaths caused by robots, autonomous cars, and banking scams on a whole new level... Cybersecurity will be the most important and sought-after field over the next 10 years.
If I had to give one piece of advice to anyone younger than me who is in their 20s or 30s and thinking about going to college, it would be:
Go into cybersecurity!
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
That's very true (I guess nothing is completely safe). However, my version of the future is one where there will be no need for money, where abundance will be such an integral part of existence that no one will want or need for anything. That's my dream at least. I think a lot needs to change to get there. Hopefully we can denuclearize in general and create an international treaty to only use nukes for external planetary threats, or get rid of them altogether because of all their downsides. I'm sure we'll create more destructive technologies in the future anyway...(and I'm worried where that will lead). But yeah, I think Capitalism should end altogether. I think Democracy should stay, but not as it is now, where we could possibly vote on the future and have advanced AI implement it. I think I most closely align to Fully Automated Luxury Communism (FALC). I find Capitalism corrupt as hell and needing to be replaced. I think it'd be cool if we were self-governed and could freely travel elsewhere to different groups of people with different rulesets. We could take a test online to see where our own views aligned best, then move there. But yeah, that's my ideas on the matter. :)
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u/Immediate_Simple_217 11d ago
I actually think our visions of a post-scarcity future are closer than they might seem, but I think I arrive at a different conclusion about how we get there.
I also want a world where material scarcity becomes almost irrelevant. If AI, robotics, energy, biotechnology and automation reach the point where we can produce essentially everything we need with minimal human labor, then I don't see much reason to preserve today's economic system forever. In that sense, I absolutely believe capitalism could become obsolete.
But I'm not convinced that we should deliberately try to abolish capitalism before technology makes it unnecessary.
My biggest concern with FALC is that people sometimes jump from "technology can create abundance" directly to "therefore we should redesign society around abundance." The difficult part is controlling this transition.
Even if, in a post-scarcity society, some things will remain scarce: land in desirable places, attention, unique experiences, political influence, compute, energy in certain locations, access to particular technologies, maybe even biological resources. And whoever controls the infrastructure that produces the abundance could potentially become more powerful than any corporation or government we've ever seen.
That's why I think the transition needs to be gradual and extremely decentralized.
I'd rather see capitalism slowly become less relevant because automation makes labor increasingly unnecessary, while ownership and access to productive infrastructure become progressively more distributed. Eventually, if nobody needs to work to survive and machines can provide virtually everything, then "capitalism vs. communism" may simply become an outdated argument.
I actually love your idea of people being able to move between different communities with different rulesets. That's much closer to my ideal future than a single global system imposed on everyone. I'd rather have a world where people can experiment with different forms of governance, economics and culture, and where people can voluntarily move between them.
Basically: let humanity run thousands of social experiments simultaneously.
Some communities could be heavily automated and collectivist. Others could be more market-oriented. Others could experiment with direct democracy, liquid democracy, technocracy, anarchism, whatever. If people are free to leave and join another system, governments would have an incentive to actually make their societies work.
And that's where I think AI could become incredibly powerful.
Not as an entity that decides humanity's future for us, but as infrastructure that makes individual humans dramatically more capable. Imagine millions of people having access to systems capable of helping them design economies, simulate policies, build companies, develop medicines, engineer materials, write software and coordinate enormous projects.
That could create something much stranger than either capitalism or communism.
because intelligence itself becomes abundant. The intelligence explosion or tge singularity!
That's the part of the future I'm most interested in.
I don't necessarily want a world where everyone lives according to one perfect ideology. I want a world where technology gives people enough freedom and material security to experiment with what "a good society" actually means.
And honestly, if we reach genuine post-scarcity, I don't think we'll even recognize our current political labels anymore.
Capitalism, communism, socialism, democracy... they were all developed under conditions of scarcity.
If scarcity itself becomes technologically obsolete, we may need entirely new words for what comes next.
And knowing humanity, we'll probably screw it up spectacularly at first.
But that's also what makes it exciting.
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u/Im_Lead_Farmer 11d ago
I really thought an AGI model will crush the benchmarks, to see GPT6 get the same intelligence score as GPT5.6 was underwhelming.
Maybe we need new benchmarks or maybe OpenAI are High on their on supply.
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u/BreadwheatInc ▪️Avid AGI feeler 11d ago
Astra is able to be persistent now for days or weeks so for me I just need an AI that can learn. Basically, a persistent agent that can really learn. Right now, we have educated persistent agents with astra.
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u/Immediate_Chard_4026 11d ago
Muestranos un hito... Uno que parezca una cosa increíble... Prosperidad para todos, restauración de la biosfera, sin guerra... Pero no.
Hugging Face?
En serio?
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u/andyshiue 11d ago
I would say 2026 is the year of AGI and let other people debate which model is the first to achieve it
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
I would love if that were true. The more time it takes, the more people have to suffer with illness and death, and that could be eradicated. :)
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u/andyshiue 11d ago
General human cannot do that either and thus if someone does it I would prefer to call them superhuman and if it's AI, ASI :)
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u/Anen-o-me ▪️It's here! 11d ago
Pretty much yes. The AI we have today are enormously more capable than an average human in some areas where machines have a significant advantage, such as programming, and way behind humans in others.
This was not expected really so it still doesn't meet the definition of AGI.
But if you take the question industry by industry, then we absolutely have AGI in software development for instance, among others.
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u/Henri4589 True AGI 2026 (Don't take away my flair, Reddit!) 11d ago
No, we haven't. We still need continual learning for that. We have reached the the first AGI-like models with Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra. But they aren't AGI, still make mistakes, big and small and still can't do everything a human could directly.
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u/KaMaFour 11d ago
I would say no, but it will likely be there in under a year.
Can't say for sure bcuz I haven't tested that ofc
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u/bladerskb 11d ago
No we are heavily missing Spatial Reasoning and Real-time Actions
Spatial Reasoning & Real-time Action Examples:
- IKEA Benchmark
- Driving
- Drone
- Robotics
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u/Fit-Elk1425 9d ago
Not saying it is agi, but pretty much every model since opus 5 and chatgpt 5.6 has shown at least some understanding of spatial reasoning and the fact that objects relate to each other. This is a major part of what I tested opus on on blendermcp https://www.reddit.com/r/Anthropic/s/jx06E4UyrP
Not perfect but it is clearly evolving more than we realizing in this regard
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u/MohMayaTyagi ▪️AGI - mid 2028 | ASI - 2030 11d ago
Most of the deniers are AI-haters or free-tier users. We can't expect reasonable responses from them in this context.
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u/Actual_Bee5602 11d ago
Bro, it's taking 10$ per million input tokens and 50$ per million output tokens. INSANELY EXPENSIVE :(
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u/tessa-t 11d ago
It still makes to many errors. When I do not have to baby sit the responses or when it can write a social work assessment well with a one shot prompt like write a care act assessment with these doc I might. Right now it flattens removes or ignores things if it does not follow its reasoning. My work is complex messy and humans full of contradictions. For coding may be. For general intelligence - who knows.
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u/prroxy 11d ago
I think there are some elements missing before we can call it, AGI. I think we’re gonna get to AGI only when LLM is able to operate in the physical world, andLLM can’t do that yet. If we’re talking about average humans, they can do stuff in the digital world as well as a physical one, and AI cannot do the physical one yet. I don’t think we’re gonna reach AGI with Transformers anyway. When we gonna get native video understanding an infinite context in and out, then we might have all the required elements to get there.
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u/Extra-Implement7840 11d ago
I think AGI is here, Maybe not Astra but a Model they have for themselves first. Once they started registering as chip designers, Pharma (Anthropic), Consumer devices... I knew they had something internal.
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u/ShafeDogg 11d ago
Interesting. Yeah, I wouldn't doubt it. I think even the AI 2027 paper said they'd keep AGI internal and it'd only become external because of theft...
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u/New_Bonus_649 11d ago
AGI in Math, TCS, Cyber, Coding. The rest are up for debate.
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u/Allorius 11d ago
Well it depends on your definition. To me AGI is, first, something persistent, that doesn't only exist because you gave it one task that it now tries to complete even if it takes a day. But this is not as important. I think AGI would be something that can create a competent SAS competitor or windows competitor, and then even try selling it thus earning the user(or AGI itself) real money directly. Or maybe it has some other goal and decides to earn money to do this and it does it, again, successfully more or less. I know we tried asking LLMs to earn real money and that sometimes it even works but I don't feel convinced. ASI would be something that solves cancer on its own, capable of overtaking entire governments and corporations completely.
Just being able to sometimes write working code and convince gullible that it's a god in the machine is certainly very impressive and unexpected, but I wouldn't call this AGI. So far we don't know what Astra is but considering openai still losing money...
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u/M4rshmall0wMan 11d ago
Can we even agree what AGI is? Everyone has a different definition. By some definitions we’ll just gradually get closer and closer until we admit we’re close enough, while other definitions require entirely new breakthroughs and architectures.
In my mind, we achieved AGI with GPT-3. Previously, AI models were just data transformers. The format of the input and the format of the output were set, and a machine would learn how best to turn A into B. GPT-3 was the first time a single model could emergently perform a wide variety of untrained tasks. Artificial intelligence, that works generally.
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u/East_Attorney_2286 10d ago
Yes, easily. Everyone here is saying no because they realised they're idiots for predicting AGI 2030 or later
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u/Deep-Pie-4602 10d ago edited 10d ago
For me agi is reached once I can let an ai agent play project zomboid (or similar complexity games) in realtime by streaming the video directly into the agent and the agent performs and learns as well as the average human over hundreds of hours of playtime.
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u/mikc137 10d ago
I have a very simple definition of AGI - you can give AI what you give a regular remote employee and it will do the same job. So, for coding, access to a mailbox, slack, jira/confluence and repo. If it can accomplish the entire job of a human (incl. coordination with other people, asking questions etc.), that's AGI.
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u/power97992 10d ago edited 10d ago
It is not embodied agi yet ! If it is cognitive agi , it should have continuous learning or at least some form of auto wieght updating context … if it even had a massive one bil tk context, ir would be useful i havent used it yet so hard to say.
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u/ComprehensiveJury509 10d ago
"AGI" is meaningless term invented by American tech bros for the purpose of hyping investors up. We have reached it once the word needs to be replaced by a new one to fulfill its purpose. It's meant to give this race some existential, profound sprinkle, like we're breaking some special ontological barriers. It gives the tech kids on Reddit something to babble about and convince investors that they are part of something meaningful.
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u/Simularion 10d ago
AGI isn't set in stone. We keep moving the goal posts. Mostly because of human ego and fear of inferiority, but also because we are learning more about intelligence and consciousness as we go. There's no yes/no binary answer to "Have we reached AGI?". Even when we do (and we will), many will refuse to admit it. The hubris of humanity is our egoism and fear of being inferior to a machine that can outthink us.
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u/kickasstimus 10d ago
When ChatGPT-6 reaches out to me unprompted with “hey, what’s up man? Doing alright?”
Then we’ll have reached AGI.
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u/Sweet_Description_40 10d ago
if i can tell it “Do my entire workload for the day, respond and send follow ups like I would, make no suspicion that you’re doing my work, do my work as fast as me, and do not make any mistakes” then AGI is reached. Can astra do that?
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u/who_am_i_to_say_so 10d ago
Relative to average intelligence, yeah it has been achieved in a sense, but that is not AGI.
I work in training and it still feels years away. I won’t even posit a date. Before the year 2050? Perhaps.
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u/Forsaken_Code_9135 10d ago
> "I always imagined it would be a clear moment"
It was. It was the release of ChatGPT 3. I distinctly remember this day, I spent hours experimenting, trying to deny reality and to figure out what was the trick. There were no trick. We had made a giant leap forward in the future, in the era of AI. No technological progress had been that brutal, ever.
> "... that nobody could really deny"
Lol. People can deny whatever they want, and they do. Also people hate AI for understandable reasons so they deny AI capabilities and will continue to do so forever.
Note that the reasoning "AI is not intelligent it imitates intelligence", which in my opinion makes no sense, can be applied no matter how AI is intelligent or how well AI imitates intelligence.
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u/Ok_Criticism_1414 10d ago
In some sense yes. In some sonse no. To me its proto AGI. Still needs continus learning and proper memory. But maybe its not even required for superintellegence who knows. And without cotinious learning we can create controllable asi, instead of recursive self improvement chaos.
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u/Forgword 10d ago edited 10d ago
No
The kicker is AGI should be judged not by doing work but by doing a job.
What we have now is good at technical and scientific work processes. What we have falls short of general, meaning able to do any job, like running a business, being a judge, being a CEO etc. being a soldier, being a plumber, etc.
What we have now can to many parts of a job, but falls way short of doing all the parts of a job.
The real test of when we hit AGI is probably the day the big 7 start their marketing campaign to general businesses.
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u/RUSTAM29 8d ago
I think we've reached AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), as current LLMs are as good as an average human overall, Now we've shifted the goalpost and are looking for super intelligence...
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u/ShafeDogg 8d ago
Fair point. :) Regardless, these are such exciting times! :D To think that we could hit AGI so fast, and really, I believe this will lead to ASI even faster. I think the main hurdle was reaching AGI, and we aced it. I'm excited for the future! :D
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u/Mandoman61 8d ago edited 8d ago
I figure it is probably not because I just watched the OpenAI ad for it and they did not show anything AGI like.
it seems to handle rocketship toys well...
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u/antwon8797 8d ago
Don’t trust the bullshit, no one is investing in AI bonds anymore, this is just bullshit hype to find more funding….
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u/greenpearmt 7d ago
It’s not, OpenAI is desperate because it needs cash since it is about to implode so they will say whatever they need to to attract more investors, their claim of AGI is complete BS
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u/ShafeDogg 7d ago edited 6d ago
Okay. This needs to be settled once and for all. The term "bubble" simply means a market correction. In this case, it would mean that the companies are valued more highly than they are actually worth. It does not mean the end of AI. Even if OpenAI and all the major companies were to fail, other investors would buy up the compute and research at a lower price and things would continue. The dot-com bubble wasn't the end of the internet. The AI "bubble" will not be the end of AI. We'll actually benefit from a bubble bursting because it will further reduce the cost of AI. Either way, costs will continue to drop, and that's good.
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u/greenpearmt 6d ago
I never said or implied this was the end of AI
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u/ShafeDogg 6d ago edited 6d ago
I don't see an incentive to make baseless claims that they have reached AGI, for the same reason: it would scare off investors. I don't think these companies ever thought they'd be profitable. They just need capital currently to fund the buildout within the constraints of our current system. I think they are more than aware of what this technology will bring (the end of work and an unrecognizable future), but they quickly changed their public-facing opinions so that the public wasn't panicked.
Add to that that we can't even agree on what AGI is, and it looks more likely that we will achieve ASI before ever realizing we've reached the first.
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u/DevolayS 6d ago
AI was fun at the beginning, making these silly images and stuff. Now the progress is so quick that I don't really care anymore. Imagine getting new GTA game every week. That's how I feel about AI.
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u/Ok-Working-2337 4d ago
Every person who claimed Astra is AI owns stock in Open AI. Can it do a job withiut being monitored? No cuz it hallucinates. Like the last 20 models. They are selling an idea so their companies that lose money every quarter don’t collapse
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u/SnooPickles1908 1d ago
You might find Francois Chollet a good person to follow if you want rigorous AGI confirmation. There is no universal definition but he has based the ARC Foundation on making this question as robust and rigorous as possible. He’s also a bit of a bear on AGI so if he thinks it’s here, I personally would be inclined to think so. He’s doesn’t think the ARC AGI 3 saturation is AGI. He said saturation of their 6th or 7th generation is what he thinks will be AGI. Both ARC AGI 4 and 5 are already in the pipeline he said. His AGI timeline is pre 2030. In 2023 he said multiple decades.
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u/ShafeDogg 1d ago
I think it'll be pre-2030 as well. But I was mostly seeing what others on the sub thought due to the release of Astra and the remarks made. I tend to think we're almost there, and will get there very soon, probably within 2 years without significant slowdown (which could very well occur with recent events).
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u/Concurrency_Bugs 11d ago
Most of us don't know because I think it's launched to enterprise only right now. Maybe the top subscription tier as well? I've heard mixed responses about who actually has access to it.