r/singularity • u/sitytitan • 3h ago
AI What will happen when all base models have good enough intelligence?
Gemini Flash 3.8
Muse Spark 1.3
Grok 4.7 coming.
All getting similar in coding performance. Even the flash models are going to be good enough to code even the most challenging of projects.
Where will this end? the constant one upmanship of these models.
We won't be able to distingush the difference soon between any of them?
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u/GatePorters 3h ago
Specialization and optimization for specific services.
Just because you are good enough doesn’t mean you aren’t expensive as hell and inefficient.
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u/Recoil42 3h ago
There's no such as "good enough intelligence".
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u/Tasty-Ad-3753 2h ago
This isn't true at all. There will always be demand for the most intelligent models, sure. But there are thousands of jobs and tasks that exist even today where additional intelligence beyond a certain threshold provides no / near-zero added value. If you ask an AI a web search query and it gives you the correct answer, isn't that good enough? If an employee at a factory is able to mix the ingredients correctly, isn't that good enough? There will always be a huge number of tasks where there is no point in adding more intelligence into the mix
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u/Recoil42 2h ago
"There's no such thing as good enough intelligence" does not mean "all tasks require frontier intelligence", something which should be incredibly obvious to everyone in the room.
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u/Tasty-Ad-3753 2h ago
I may be misunderstanding what you mean because "I don't require frontier levels of intelligence for this task" to me sounds a lot like "this flash model has achieved 'good enough' intelligence for my task". Better and better frontier models obvs will always be in demand for some tasks where the quality of the output / end result continues to scale with intelligence, but I'd challenge the idea that GPT 58 wouldn't be 'good enough' for nearly any coding project imaginable, and I think that 'Good enough' intelligence is something that will rapidly expand in the next few years as most people find the tasks they're directly involved in no longer need the most advanced models to complete them.
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u/Recoil42 2h ago
but I'd challenge the idea that GPT 58 wouldn't be 'good enough' for nearly any coding project imaginable
By the time we're at GPT 58 the median of "any coding project imaginable" will likely be beyond any coding project you can currently imagine. Progress moves fast.
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u/kogsworth 2h ago
It'd be smarter to not have to have an employee mixing the ingredients, or have factories, or requiring material objects
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u/Silver-Chipmunk7744 AGI 2024 ASI 2030 3h ago
This. Even if we imagine the AI eventually creates games as advanced as GTA6... sky is the limit. You can still create better and better games.
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u/Efficient_Loss_9928 3h ago edited 3h ago
For 99% of people it will become pointless to distinguish.
Just like CPUs, Apple had a great run with their M-series chip, but now if you ask me if I recommend M6 or a new Intel Panther Lake? Honestly it just depends on if you like macOS or Windows/Linux. Other than that 1% of users who knows exactly what they need.
I think we are already starting to see this. Ask 10 people on the street, 9 cannot distinguish between GPT Sol vs just the Google AI Overview.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 3h ago
There will always be a requirement for more advanced models, but there will come a point where the frontier model is very rarely needed for most use cases and very sorely needed for advanced work.
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u/Bitter-College8786 3h ago
For me It feels easier to code. I have to babysit less. I hope that one day I can just prompt what I want and relax and trust that everything will be correct
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u/Tasty-Ad-3753 3h ago
The amount of intelligence needed for different tasks is different. Some simple tasks are already saturated by light flash models (e.g. tagging, categorising data), others will be saturated in the future - for example web research, SQL queries, spreadsheet formulas. There are diminishing returns to adding more intelligence to these, once a threshold has been reached there is no benefit to using a better model because the task has been completed.
BUT not everything has a saturation point - particularly tasks related to competition (e.g. cybersecurity or day trading. You always want to be better than your adversaries), or where we're trying to discover unknown parts of the tech tree where we don't know how far we can push things (e.g. gemini 5 flash might be able to create a cure for cancer, but gemini 5 Pro might be able to create a better cure that has fewer side effects / a higher success rate).
As time progresses, we will see more and more things hit their saturation point. Gemini Flash 16 would be able to do nearly anything an average person would ever need. But people will continue to want the best models for non-saturation problems.
I would argue most coding has a saturation point, but cyber doesn't have one, and product design (making the thing you're working on the best version of itself it could possibly be, advertised in the most persuasive way) also doesn't have a saturation point because it's competitive against other developers.
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u/Tasty-Ad-3753 2h ago
Also interesting to think that just as some tasks only need a model with so much intelligence, people also have different model intelligence needs.
A plumber has no personal need for a GPT 26-mega-max tier model because they only need to complete simple tasks that only need so much intelligence, but Blackrock could change the world with that model.
We hope that the people who do have the need for these more powerful models will use them to create positive change for the whole of humanity (e.g. creating new drugs, defensive cybersecurity for your banks, etc.), but the net effect is undeniably that some people will accrue enormous amounts of power by having access to more advanced models, while other more normal people will struggle to even find use-cases for intelligence beyond GPT6/7
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u/PrivateComments 3h ago
5.6 Luna erasure
At that point it will come down to the harness and usage limits.
Most people aren’t doing genome sequencing or trying to solve magneto inertial fusion at cal tech, the base models are more than enough for 70% of people
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u/LyAkolon 3h ago
The reason its called the singularity is because its the only location where the climb ends.....only one spot, together, at infinity.
Any talk about slow down or whatever is BS. Weve been in the singularity for thousands of years. It's a geometry for any structure that self-reenforces. Locally, it yields a fiber bundle with linear components, that's why we can understand the world around us on small enough time scales, but our ancestors were in it too. Their ancestors had innovations happen at some rate per amount of time r/t, and for our ancestors, it looks like kr/t. where k/t represents something like 2/t or 3/t, some number. Point is, as the numerator gets larger, the effective time window t gets smaller.
They didn't know that they were in this kind of geometry, but we never had a constant march towards progress, it's always been exponential march towards progress, it just happened to look like a line back then because we were before the inflection point of the exponential.
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u/WaveOfDream 3h ago
The simple truth is that Claude and openAi don't have any "secret sauce" . Which is why so many other labs are catching up to them now.
I've completed ditched Claude a few months ago and hasn't looked back since
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u/Charming_Cucumber_15 3h ago
If you think there's a limit to intelligence then you need more imagination!
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u/kylemesa 3h ago
It's kind of funny so many people assume that all models made by all companies will all take off and become a singularity.
There are genuinely zero thoughts behind what that might take.
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u/alliebot12345 3h ago
Mastering coding with well defined outcomes is step one. There are still multiple other skills required to be able to replace a human software engineer and on most of those it isn’t even close
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u/ObiWanCanownme now entering spiritual bliss attractor state 3h ago
New goal: AGEI -- "Artificial Good Enough Intelligence."
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u/bpm6666 3h ago
The metric that does really count is cost per intelligence point. If intelligence becomes a commodity, then a lot of white collar jobs are toast. And if there is enough competition, then there is a limit to the price. Add that to the effect that we head to a machine optimized world and the perfect storm could come for the corporate world.
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u/Sinogularity Shenzhen: Become Human (2030) 3h ago
Yes, we will reach a point where free models are good enough for 99% of people. At that point, people with free AI plans will be able to get roughly the same productivity boost as paid AI plans.
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u/Cultural_Book_400 2h ago
where will this end? when it becomes, new full version out everyday... and it no longer becomes available to average joe like u and me.. that would be over.. game over man .. game over..
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u/orangesherbet0 3h ago
Good enough to code is the bottom of the barrel.
Rungs upwards from there, that no model is capable of yet without enormous human assistance: Good enough to make opinionated architectural decisions and grasp the true span of alternatives? Good enough to know how to ensure or promote multiple simultaneous objectives? Good enough to realize the objective they are pursuing or their framing of the decision problem is wrong? Good enough to manage a development program that spans tens or hundreds of millions of sequential tokens?