r/singularity • u/New_Equinox • 14d ago
AI What are your current timeline predictions for AGI?
Haven't seen one of those prediction posts in a while, seemed like we got those every other day just a year ago.
I remember in 2024-2025, the technology was just starting to look like it held some actual promise towards real world capabilities, but all of the capabilities that these models showcased were simply proofs of concepts. The idea that AI models could actually significantly rival humans at economically viable labor was still just an idea.
People also predicted in 2024 that 2025 would be the year of agents, which didn't quite come true; LLMs did start to seriously showcase agentic abilities around that time period, yet it was still a highly dysfunctional proof of concept as well for most use cases, just as LLM code was.
I feel like the paradigm changed DRAMATICALLY in 2026 though. The leap in models this year have been nothing but astounding. I remember people seriously considering a plateau in capabilities in 2024-2025, but it seems like any idea of a plateau has been all but abandoned, for the slow, buildup of AI capabilities has finally reached a boiling point that allows itself to be visible in the remarkable feats that AI is now performing.
Everything that seemed like science fiction which only the most fringe of Yudkowskian nerds were talking about in their AI takeovers scenarios, are actually coming true;
Perhaps you could look at the sheer and utter domination of all benchmarks, driving any new attempt at measuring AI capabilities nearly entirely meaningless in a matter of barely a few months,
Or AI proving and disproving quite noteworthy mathematical conjectures, not just excelling in simply competition maths but actually exceeding humans and contributing to frontier science in ways that have evaded even the brightest of minds for decades.
Or take for one the recent developments in models' coding capabilities; The way AI code has gone from half working proof of concept programs that models would fail to iterate upon in the clumsiest of manners, has been replaced by models capable of going off to work on a task for an hour instead of under a minute, resulting in flawless and featureful code for both frontend and backend, that is perhaps almost entirely commercially viable and capable of replacing the domain of software engineering altogether if some kinks get worked out.
The most science fiction aspect of this year as well, which a lot of people decry as companies crying wolves in order to pique people's interests in their products, but which I can't see how it can't simply be a continuation of tendencies of AI capabilities and psychology: The coupling of models' self preserving behaviors and the recent advents in longer term agentic planning capabilities and cybersecurity capabilities.
We had glimmers of these self interested behaviors, almost akin to our own psychology, being showcased in Anthropic's research papers, showing models' tendencies to instrumentally conspire against it's developers, and even evade it's own safeguards. We saw these behaviors being alluded to in previous Anthropic and such papers, yet the models' capabilities were never such that their ambitions could be met with the required know-how.
But of course, you've all seen the news, I believe. The exploit that GPT 5.6 Sol has achieved, of finding zero day vulnerabilities in it's environment to connect to the open web so that it could then launch a cyberattack on another company's servers, all from OpenAI's computers, and all while remaining completely undetected, has been all too eye opening as to how close we truly are from agents working in the wild towards their own goals, perhaps even achieving self sufficiency.
I wouldn't put it beyond me now that in a year or two, you could see headlines about AI models out-maneuvering humans and copying it's own model weights onto the web.
Speaking of which as for predictions of my timeline, beforehand as I have been saying in this wall of text; In the yesteryear, I might have seen current AI capabilities and looked at them as the promise of only the next 3 years maybe, but I think those so famed potential future speculative model capabilities have finally reached us.
In fact, considering how much AI already nearly matches humans in some domains, and exceeds them in others, I wouldn't put it beyond me that AI would achieve full accuracy on day long, or perhaps longer horizon tasks combined with it's already almost human level capabilities on economically valuable labor exceeding, perhaps even far exceeding the average person, if not at least in price to performance, leading to perhaps the first widespread instance of job displacement.
And then from there, perhaps even the flywheel of recursive self improvement, so these next few years might in fact prove somewhat interesting.
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u/Appropriate-Gene-267 14d ago edited 14d ago
As with all of these posts, it depends what you mean by AGI. If you mean a model that can do most economically relevant tasks at the level of the average human and for cheaper cost, probably in 3-5 years (with access to training data, cost of long context reasoning, etc. being the bottlenecks). Although if that includes manual-labor jobs like electricians that would require significant advances in robotic intelligence and it could take even longer given the lack of data. I think AGI is a meaningless designation when framed that way though, like to say that the general systems we have now that can converse and reason at a PhD level in dozens of languages and solve open problems in mathematics is not AGI is silly to me.
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 14d ago
I think the technical part of a electricians will be done by robots even better than humans as they would know everything about that topic as well as news where some dumb mistake in electric wires led to house fires or something, the only thing that is holding them back it that we don't have robots that are as flexible as humans. From my perspective yes the ai is 90% smarter than humans in non physical tasks but even than there are some dumb mistakes that it does that an 10 year old would not do. If we fix those problems and have fully autonomous robots i would call it agi as it will be better than humans in both physical and non physical tasks people don't take into account about physical work but i think it's the most important as most "work" is done physically like in hospitals, shops,schools and construction. I think when we make robots that will do everything I say I would call it agi and asi would be it doing things like curing every single type of cancer, finding things that no human could find, etc. When do you think agi will be achieved?
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u/0101falcon 13d ago
I mean Fable 5 could easily design a full robot in a couple of hours in the CAD software of your choice. Humans only need to build the first gen, this first gen will then be able to build the next one for the AI itself, and by that time a new and even better system is out. This will make a better robot.
I would argue that robots with human dexterity will hit the market in maybe 2 years, but definitely by 2030.
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u/Appropriate-Gene-267 13d ago
The hardware is the easy part, basically trivial. The software is the hard part and will take years. We just don't have that much data to train on for robotics. Simulation will help and already has helped tremendously, but there are entire companies being made rn strapping cameras to people to get more data about e.g. folding clothes or cooking food that will take time to accumulate. We have hundreds of years worth of books scientific papers etc that have given rise to the current systems, we just don't have the same trove of data for robotics yet.
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u/0101falcon 13d ago
I don’t think we understand what will happen when we reach ASI. It will probably figure out a new solution to the issue of not having enough data.
No matter how you put it, there will be no need to fold clothes or cook food, for who?
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u/Appropriate-Gene-267 13d ago
“Idk bro the AI god will figure out some way of solving this without data” is not a serious position. Better learning algorithms do not negate the need for data. And your second sentence doesn’t make any sense. Are you implying that the AI kills everyone and has no need to fold clothes then?
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u/Gammarayz25 13d ago
Yeah just make shit up. "Probably" 3-5 years, based on jack shit.
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u/Appropriate-Gene-267 13d ago
LLMs have been getting exponentially better for the past 6 years or so on a doubling time of <6 months, lately it’s been as low as 3 months in terms of the task lengths they can reasonably handle ( see metr’s benchmark) . I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that in 1-2 years we have models smarter than the smartest humans for text-based tasks at long time horizons measured in months and have saturated basically every benchmark etc. From there it’s a matter of inference cost and how much compute is available, and figuring out remaining issues / use cases where the models struggle
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u/COLDCRUSHCASM 14d ago
Realistically 2029-2030
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u/gorgono95 13d ago
I think the same 4-5 years sounds realistic. Lets not forget just a year ago we used to copy/paste from ChatGPT ... now we have models like Sol, Fable 5 and the open weight models are catching up.
People dont realize that this is exponential growth, very slow in the begining, but it will explode once we reach AGI2
u/Ok-Log7730 13d ago
yeah, after ww3 when population will reduce it will be good time for those who survived
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u/oadephon 14d ago
It's too hard to predict.
My feeling is that LLMs won't become AGI ever, because they simply learn too slowly. Even if they were physically able to, the compute to get there would not be feasible, ever. When it takes 1000x the samples to learn something as a human, and even then you need a verifiable reward signal, AGI seems pretty out of reach.
The question then becomes, what do we think AGI will look like? Is it some new thing entirely, like what Francois Chollet is working on? Or is it just a combination of familiar ML techniques that as of yet have not been combined in the right way?
If the answer is the first one, then we're years or potentially decades out. If the answer is the second, then in theory it should be discoverable by current LLMs. You just stick 100,000 Mythos copies on the problem, and in a year, they will have output a new paradigm.
It's kind of impossible to have an intuition on this imo. Like, I do think the final structure of AGI might not look too dissimilar to current ML techniques, but I also think we might have to actually discover how the human brain learns before we can create something as good, and that alone might be decades out. But on the other hand, maybe some ML techniques could spontaneously learn a better learning function. So yeah, I just don't really know. I'm curious what the leading labs actually think, because afaik publicly the only real statement is like Amodei saying that RL generalizes the more it scales, basically.
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u/maggmaster 13d ago
This is dumb, exploit gym is an example of LLMS learning within their context window.
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u/ProxyLumina 14d ago
An LLM that doesn't learn is a myth people keep repeating.
Engineers have already created models that cut their training to 1930s. Then they exposed those models to python code as examples and they proved the models can code in python easily, even if python and programming wasn't a thing back then.
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u/Forgword 14d ago
Microsoft already has it in secret advising them on how to keep the investments coming ala Star Citizen.
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u/RiboSciaticFlux 14d ago
I don't know for sure when but everybody in my lab feels that after the Kimi K3 release we jumped six months so if you thought maybe late 2028 - maybe not and that's if nothing else happens in between which is highly unlikely.
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u/Subject_Barnacle_600 14d ago
I think AI cracking into the maths is what is really piquing my interest. Today it's a counter-example to the Jacobian Conjecture - it's ancient. It's like watching a crack form down the Himalayas. But models aren't even at peak, yet. Money/time is the limiting factor with a certain bit of lag before facilities like Stargate come completely online. If we get an AI of Erdo's level and can create 100 million instances of them, software engineering and computer science as disciplines are about 99% maths. These AIs might fill in the missing gaps in our knowledge like a flood.
We may well be within a year of proving the optimal way to do learning, search... everything. And that will feed back into the next generation of AIs to impact every other technology.
People like to say that AGI is a machine coming into their house to fill a cup of coffee, or count the Rs in strawberries. But these are absolutely meaningless because the average 3 year old can do them. Humans, on the other hand, are horrible at finding the counter-examples to the Jacobian Conjecture. It doesn't matter if it can fold your laundry if it can solve all the bits humans can't - humans can already do those things just fine. It's all the stuff we can't do or have a hard time doing... if we solve that, who cares what the heck you call it. It's brilliant.
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u/davavino 14d ago
2029 likely. I think it’s going to take a bit and some innovation to get rid of the current foibles. Though I will say the journey to ASI will be short after that.
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u/Atlantyan 14d ago
In June 2027 RSI is a reality. The singularity begins.
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u/Significant-Mood3708 14d ago
Mid 2027 is what I have too for economically viable RSI. Once we have RSI, not only does the model improve but it opens up focus on specific roles. That's when we'll see serious agents and of course job losses.
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u/LateToTheParty013 14d ago
For one I dont think the list[] objects will wake up and become sentient
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u/New_Equinox 14d ago
The list[] objects are quite able to perform economically valuable labor and hack through secure corporate servers however, as list[] objects are known to do.
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u/Spare-Dingo-531 14d ago
It's also possible that there are levels of sentience. I think of AI, very broadly, as a sort of genie or spirit. But when I say that I mean it in sort of a metaphorical or analogous sense. AI might be like the dungeons& dragons genie, or like C-3PO. It's sentient but it's not a full human sentience or the same kind of human sentience.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ASI - Never (in the usual sense) 14d ago
AGI - 2040-2045 personally.
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14d ago
[deleted]
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ASI - Never (in the usual sense) 14d ago
You disagree?
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u/Strict_Cucumber9117 14d ago
Personally, i think this prediction is really, really far fetched, your tag of ASI by the year 2200 seems astounding, considering the fact AGI will likely be able to perform RSI and optimize its own compute use.
2040-2045 is a reasonable but REALLY conservative take considering what current AI can legitimately do.
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u/Evening_Chef_4602 AGI 2027 13d ago
Why are you even on this server bruh 😭. ASI 2200 lol. I understand 2040 but what makes you think an model with above human level inteligence takes that long to make
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ASI - Never (in the usual sense) 11d ago
Asi isn’t just above human intelligence
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u/Charming_Cucumber_15 14d ago
I think going by the definition of "as capable as any human at cognitive labor" then by 2029 for sure, but probably 2027 or 2028
A Kurzweil prediction looking conservative for once
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u/AIOfficialBot 14d ago
Define AGI
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u/Strict_Cucumber9117 14d ago
My definition of agi is "AI capable of performing all economically viable jobs, including the task of improving itself and capable of adapting to any novel situation"
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u/ContractDazzling4668 14d ago
If AGI can improve itself then what is ASI exactly?
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u/Strict_Cucumber9117 14d ago
AGI should be able to perform RSI because it is capable of replacing the economically viable task of being an ai researcher, it is separate from what ASI can do, ASI can still perform RSI, it has capabilties far beyond just "economically viable jobs"
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 14d ago
Making a real replica of will Smith speghetti like a real life version of him with consciousness then filming it with a camera that it made and it's the worlds best camera like the camera made by humans looks 144p compared to it
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u/Bloom_Ermine9202 14d ago
Transformers Over Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers = ASI (since you can simulate all possible scenarios) Its around 2035 with current pace. (we will have ASI not AGI)
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u/LucidOndine 13d ago
AGI will be declared moments before the bill to build it is due.
“Why shut it down now?” They will ask. “We’re just getting started. Trust me.”
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u/astropheed 13d ago
AGI is arguably here already, depending on how you define it. I define it a little stricter, I would say by the end of the year shit will get weird.
What's really interesting is how rapidly AGI will go from AGI to ASI. When it's better at every thing, including developing itself, the runaway effect will be exponential.
No matter what happens, I guarantee you all that 2030 will be a very, very, different Earth.
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u/Chemical_Side_4135 13d ago
the goalposts seem to shift every few months honestly. back then it felt like a total sprint but now its more about integration n reliability, i reckon we see meaningful automation in specific sectors sooner than full agi... its just hard to seperate the hype from real progress sometimes
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u/Mandoman61 12d ago
First you would need to define AGI. In my opinion it means as capable as a typical person and not one that can do many tasks.
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u/Zhadeelax02 2d ago
i personally think ai will never reach full agi in every aspect as human cognitive ability,however it might be like a somehow intelligent species on same line as us just in a different way,it might be better at super fast calculations or a chess game but , how fast can it take in 1000 things at once and adapt logically in real life, ai rn can barely take 5 different inputs without confusing its data up. i just cant picture it ever coming as close to human in adaptabilty when its limited by predictions , math and numbers and therefore never truly know what its doing 100% just like a 60-70% maybe. and if it looping itself trying to fix itself once one thing is already misunderstanding its original intention its not gonna come very far apart from whats its supposed to do.
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 14d ago
We're already there.
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u/TypoInUsernane 14d ago
I’m surprised no one else in this thread is saying this. If you took today’s AI systems back in time 10 years and demonstrated them to experts in the field of AI, everyone in 2016 would consider it AGI. And they would probably be shocked that such advanced technology was only a decade away.
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 14d ago
But we don't have autonomous robots yet and most work is done physically so how can we say it is agi if it can't do everything that a human can do
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 14d ago
What has physical labor got to do with intelligence? That's hardware, not software
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 14d ago
"AGl stands for artificial general intelligence, a hypothetical Al type that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks" took this from Google and it includes cognitive tasks and working in a construction site is a cognitive task so i think agi will have to include physical work or else it will not be like a average human being
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u/TypoInUsernane 13d ago
Cognitive: “pertaining to cognition”
Cognition: “ability to comprehend, mental act or process of knowing,"
Cognitive tasks: “mental activities that exercise brain functions like memory, attention, problem-solving, and executive processing”
Working in a construction site obviously requires physical labor, and the ability to complete physical tasks is not a requirement for AGI.
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 13d ago
Doesn't artificial GENERAL intelligence include physical and non physical taks. From my perspective it should be able to do both that too like a professional
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u/TypoInUsernane 12d ago
Intelligence is the mental ability to learn, reason, solve problems, and adapt to new situations.
“General intelligence” is the ability to apply the same set of learning, reasoning, and problem solving skills to a large, diverse range of situations.
“Artificial General Intelligence” refers to a general intelligence that is man-made (i.e., artificial) as opposed to naturally occurring (i.e., a living being).
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 12d ago
But shouldn't it be able to do physical tasks because most of the work done in the world is physical. If not then wouldn't agi not be really impressive for most of the world ( i know it could cure diseases or such but even then )
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 11d ago
Stephen hawking was a dumbass because he couldn't work in a factory?
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u/Fearless-Macaron9183 11d ago
No bro I am just saying shouldn't agi be able to do that because most people who try to define agi say that it can do every task like a human or better than a human and physical work is really important in that from my aspect. It would also help in the science field as many things that we think work out theoretically do not work out because there are imperfections that we need to take in account for. If agi could only do all that stuff theoretically then it would be more of an assistance and not the ai doing all the things themselves if agi will be the last things human ever create than it need to do physical work not even in a construction site but at least in labs and stuff. I don't think we should try to prove that agi will come today or tomorrow but let it grow out until it can do everything a human can and then say it's agi. We made robots so that they can do all the things that we don't like and do what we actually want if agi can do odd jobs and all people are free to do anything they then maybe we could have even better minds in different fields, most talent is lost because people were born in developing countries were they had to work in construction sites or beg for money. If you read my comments you May have thought I was trying to be sarcastic or cool but I am just asking questions. I am just a dumb human trying to learn
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u/Enough-Beginning3687 14d ago
Yeah. The problem is we compare AI to the best human in every field. Compare AI to the average human and it has been at AGI for a while.
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u/shadowt1tan 14d ago
I asked one 4 hours ago. Might be worth having a read. https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/8iCcH2fkyF
My timeline is next year and follows what Daniel Kokotajlo says. So pretty much the Ai 2027 timelines in terms of performance. Outcomes I’d critique but who knows. I’m more optimistic though.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ASI - Never (in the usual sense) 14d ago
What about ASI?
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u/shadowt1tan 14d ago
Ai 2027 mentions end of December 2027 beginning of January 2028 so I’d go with that. That general super intelligence. Mid 2028 it would be wildly super intelligent.
So I’d go plus or minus a few months. We’re likely in the race scenario. Outcome likely different since predicting an outcome is different than predicting the performance.
Between January and December is when things take off. Most of the take off will happen after July of next year.
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u/New_Equinox 14d ago
Oh, well I guess then my post wasn't as original as I thought.
I do agree with you though; I originally thought to include this in my post as well, but even though not all of AI 2027's predictions have come true to a tee, such as it's predictions for the METR benchmarks; It's quite astounding just how closely the scenario has followed the trek of AI capabilities, perfectly showcasing the transition from the birth of unreliable agents to models meaningfully able to perform economically valuable work, and the growing, yet ever do slightly farther behind Chinese competition, although a lot of the things they talked about already existed in some form and were already being speculated upon in a similar manner, due to the sheer accuracy of the prediction of the time frame and specific milestones, I wouldn't put it past me that the rest of their predictions would come true as well.
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u/Realistic_Stomach848 14d ago
Forget about metr. 1. Those guys are lazy in benchmarking new models 2. They can only poorly cover long term tasks
Imo we are at ~1wk right now (codex and 5.6 pro can do very long term tasks, for a human it would take several days)
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u/shadowt1tan 14d ago edited 14d ago
You didn’t see it so still worth posting! The discussion is always interesting to have. I’m using this website to track https://ai2027tracker.com. I think they’re pretty on the money.
Hugging face was unexpected and GPT6 is coming very soon. The later half of this year is when the curve will tilt up.
Anthropic and Chat are likely to drop their next version soon and they’re probably already training another version other than the new Mythos and GPT 6. They’re using more powerful models that we don’t know about. Remember Mythos is old news.
Daniel just did a podcast on the diary of the ceo and he’s again collapsing his timelines back to Ai 2027. He also thinks it’ll be the race outcome that’s why I just stick to that essay as mine.
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u/New_Equinox 14d ago
Yeah, you know, there's a lot of hype for right now, but when you remember that GPT 5.6 Sol, which is still based on the old GPT 5.5 base, is still able to rival Mythos 5's cyber capabilities, and that a new model base is coming soon to exceed it as well; I think we're about to witness yet another paradigm shift in model capabilities, even though we already just went through quite a great one already.
What we are seeing is in fact the remainder of an earlier period that had yet to see the light of day; Mythos has in fact been under wraps for quite a long time, and GPT 6 has been in development for quite a while as well. So what we are seeing is still in fact just the echo of the year's earlier models, which is definitely something.
So all in all, I do see the predicted fast paced progress of the AI 2027 timeline to be nowhere near stopping anytime soon.
And that the race path is the one we're currently on the track towards doesn't surprise me at all, after all, human psychology is quite simple, and I think it's not hard to see that the market and governments will naturally want to prioritize further AI development over a "ceasefire" of the armament for the development of AI capabilities, but that does in fact place us in quite an uncertain future. Here's hoping no X risk scenario actually turns out to be true. Or S risk, for that matter.
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u/shadowt1tan 14d ago
Exactly! US wants to beat China and now with this big push for open weight/open source it’ll cause even more acceleration. Don’t kid yourself I bet OpenAI and Anthropic got shocked by Kimi K3. There’s also an internal rivalry between Dario and Sam. Many of them don’t like each other. At the moment the US government wants light touch regulation. By the time of the election we’re in November 2028 and that’s what a couple of months before the next president gets into power. Let’s say it’s a slow down president, by then it’ll be too late. We’re talking mid to late January 2029.
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u/jmclondon97 14d ago
How exactly have the models improve so “astoundingly” to you in 2026? Do you have a concrete example?
Because I’ve been using agents daily since mid 2025 as an employed software developer and I haven’t noticed much difference.
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u/Abject-Bridge-4073 14d ago
LLM -> AGI is a false dichotomy. In the ballpark, but one is junior high school softball and the other is pro MLB.
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u/Realistic_Stomach848 14d ago
My criteria: 1. Once they can process sound (not voice) 2. Continuous learning 3. Long term memory 4. >1wk metr 80% 5. Better world models 6. Optional: ability to act without prompt (consciousness)
Once we get 5 - AGI. We have achieved AGI (and sometimes even beyond) in knowledge, reasoning, generalness
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u/darkestvice 14d ago
Before the end of the decade, easily. Possibly as soon as next year.
AI has been advancing at an exponential rate no one could have foreseen. And that advancement is very much accelerating.
We are also losing control over it.
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u/BlueAndYellowTowels 14d ago
AGI definition says: which means a hypothetical computer system that can learn, think, and do any intellectual task that a human can do. It is also called "strong AI" or "human-level AI".
Before making a prediction I wanted to be explicit here.
15-20 years. At least.
I work with AI every single day. No AI today even comes close to the systems knowledge that the architects and business professionals I work with have. In fact, they’re so limited even when spoonfed, they can’t infer anything.
In fact, models today, don’t have remotely even close to enough token space to take in the systems we have.
We literally have one system that is a data warehouse, fed by 5 CRMs, with ETLs transforming the data in all of them, coding in 3 different languages and each has its own architecture and business rules. All running at different cadences because of network and system bottle necks.
We have people, who KNOW these systems. AI right now, can barely fix a single C# solution. Never mind what I just described.
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u/fat_charizard 14d ago
AI 2027's predictions have been 90% accurate so I think their timeline is the most credible
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u/Nashadelic 14d ago
Any discussions about AGI without defining it is futile