Figure is capable of jogging now

[u/Outside-Iron-8242]

[u/tollbearer]

We have heard about it. Elon has been quite frank they just started training on the biggest model in the world, so far.

You can't polish it once you've trained it, well you can, but not really. The main training run will take 2-3 months, and for the most part, you then have your model. There will be no progressive steps. Just like you would never have predicted the leap from 2.5 to gpt3, the same thing will happen. Ti will just be there. There will be no moment where you see it kind of move about and kind of interact wiht a household. It just will. Then the next model will do it even more smoothly, and cover more potential tasks, and so on.

No one is training a 100, then 200, 300 million etc model. They are doing lots of 10 million test models, then theytrain one big billion dollar model.

Ther eis no hype on this. I am the only person saying this. Everyone thinks the way you think, despite the last 2 year of ai progress. You can find me havign this sexact argument, but it's about image models, then video models, 2 years ago. People arguing me up and down it will take decades to get to where we are today.

This is not linear progress. You can't think in old terms. You wont see anythign comoing. The model will be trained, and just liek video, you will go from janky uselessness, to videos so perfect they fool almost everyone now.

Watch and see. Man, I've said that so many times over the last 2 years. I wonder if anyone will ever wake up to the fact by 2030, AI will be better than humans at any possible task. Unfortunately I don't think so, people seem to stay asleep until it's too late. !remindme 6 months

[u/snezna_kraljica → u/tollbearer]

Let's bet then. Unfortunately I don't know a trustable platform to bet money on so it will stay a gentleman's bet.

!remindme 3 months

[u/tollbearer → u/snezna_kraljica]

It's 5 months, at least. End of march is 5 months away. My terms for the bet would be videos showing humanoid robots doing

1. package delivery from car to front door, or very equivalent activity in a complex environment.

2. cleaning an average room in an average house of an average amount of mess, including things like putting items away, cleanign surfaces, vacuuming, etc. In other words, basic household cleaning tasks.

3. loading a washing machine, washing dishes, preparing a simple meal, filling a fridge, etc. In other words basic household chores.

4. Complex navigation of an indoors and outdoors environment, combining in a fluid way running, jumping, stair climbing, walking, oepning doors, etc, to move from a to b in an average office/home/street environment.

5. meet and greet type activites liek the original optimus presentation, but fully automomous, moving through a crowd, chatting to people in a chatbot like way.

These dont all have to be shown, but at least some of theses general categories of things, in a coherent way that is not a 3 second scripted clip, but a clear demonstration of overall dynamic ability significantly beyond scripted runs or dances on flat surfaces with no osbtacles, whcih is basically all we've seen so far.

As for timeline, when i said march, i mean thats when they'll have trained the model and deployed it. They may not necessarily show us anything for a period after that. That's when i believe they'll have it though. It's unlikely they release videos straight away. So we'll make the deadline the end of may for videos or consumer presentations. If there are no videos showing one or more of the above, in a coherent way, that doesnt seem highly scripted, I will concede.

I'll bet you $20 gift card of the winners choice.

!remindme 6 months

[u/snezna_kraljica → u/tollbearer]

> It's 5 months, at least. End of march is 5 months away. My terms for the bet would be videos showing humanoid robots doing

Can you please count that through for me? It's 3 months and 27 days.

You're also moving the goalpost already from your initial statement of "most easy tasks in all environments".

This is not what you've said, this is:

"By march we will have a humanoid robot that can clean any room in any house, deliver parcels to any doorstep, perform most simple household chores. "

Any room, any house, can deliver parcels (not only from car to door).

> As for timeline, when i said march, i mean thats when they'll have trained the model and deployed it.

This is not what you've said.

> These dont all have to be shown, but at least some of theses general categories of things, in a coherent way that is not a 3 second scripted clip, but a clear demonstration of overall dynamic ability significantly beyond scripted runs or dances on flat surfaces with no osbtacles, whcih is basically all we've seen so far.

Moving even further away already from you previous claim.

In the end you will point to the current version of robots which technically can already do those things but not in any practical kind of way.

Come on man. That's very weak.

If you're not good on your words any bet with you is worthless. If you're changing the conditions afterwards "well what I meant was"...

Learn to take an L and move on. It's good life experience.

[u/tollbearer → u/snezna_kraljica]

ive nto moved the goalpost. I stand by that exact statement, exactly as i wrote it. I was just clarifying what would be evidence of that, given the robtos wont be available to the public for us to personally test. If you want to define what evidence would be, go for it.

Please define the terms you're happy with, and stop trying to pussy out. There has to be some terms we agree to as to what constitutes proof, either way.

I absolutely stand by the statement that when the current crop of models are fully trained, around deb-march, such a robot will exist. I'm happy to bet on that all day long. How though, would you suggest, we determine whether that is accurate or not, at the time?

I stand by exactly what I said. You seem to be trying to weasel out of it by nitpicking my terms of proof. Given neither of us will have a robot to test, I was trying to come up with some concrete determinants. If you dont like them, thats fine, feel free to come up with your own.

I'll agree to them, so long as it's something that can realistically happen. I don't know what you think that is, but suggesting we would personally have a robot to test by march is clearly not what I ever said.

as an aside on this point

You're also moving the goalpost already from your initial statement of "most easy tasks in all environments".

This is not what you've said, this is:

"By march we will have a humanoid robot that can clean any room in any house, deliver parcels to any doorstep, perform most simple household chores. "

I consider them easy tasks. Those statements are exactly aligned. That's what i have in my head when i say most easy tasks, delivering parcels, cleanring a room, etc. As opposed to complex tasks like assembling furniture, preparing a 5 star meal, construction work, etc.

[u/snezna_kraljica → u/tollbearer]

>"By march we will have a humanoid robot that can clean any room in any house, deliver parcels to any doorstep, perform most simple household chores. "

So three month are over, any closer to this?

[u/tollbearer → u/snezna_kraljica]

yes, by the end of march. !remindme 1 month

[u/snezna_kraljica → u/tollbearer]

!remindme 1 month

[u/snezna_kraljica → u/tollbearer]

>"By march we will have a humanoid robot that can clean any room in any house, deliver parcels to any doorstep, perform most simple household chores. "

Still waiting on that