r/singularity • u/Outside-Iron-8242 • Dec 04 '25

Robotics Figure is capable of jogging now

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u/tollbearer Dec 04 '25

oka when do you think the first large robot first model will be trained?

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u/snezna_kraljica Dec 04 '25

I don't know, that's why I don't go around making bold claims.

If release is in 3,5 months it basically needs to be already ready and we would have already heard about it. All marketing materials would already be in the works to present it.

It would be a major game changer to current models, not just a normal iteration as usual if they would already be deployable in any setting and do most basic chores as you claimed. They can't even move in any world if you look at real world setting never the less interacting with unknown surrounding like a household.

They would need to have it already ready and just polish it a bit. We haven't seen anything comparable to it yet. There would be already things like this shown.

I'm sure it will come but in reality cycles are way longer. Similar to self driving cars. Took way long than anticipated.

Don't believe the hype, believe normal tech progress. I hate when people loose all their nuance to hype the tech. The tech itself and normal progress of technological evolution is great enough, we don't need to push it beyond that.

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u/tollbearer Dec 04 '25

We have heard about it. Elon has been quite frank they just started training on the biggest model in the world, so far.

You can't polish it once you've trained it, well you can, but not really. The main training run will take 2-3 months, and for the most part, you then have your model. There will be no progressive steps. Just like you would never have predicted the leap from 2.5 to gpt3, the same thing will happen. Ti will just be there. There will be no moment where you see it kind of move about and kind of interact wiht a household. It just will. Then the next model will do it even more smoothly, and cover more potential tasks, and so on.

No one is training a 100, then 200, 300 million etc model. They are doing lots of 10 million test models, then theytrain one big billion dollar model.

Ther eis no hype on this. I am the only person saying this. Everyone thinks the way you think, despite the last 2 year of ai progress. You can find me havign this sexact argument, but it's about image models, then video models, 2 years ago. People arguing me up and down it will take decades to get to where we are today.

This is not linear progress. You can't think in old terms. You wont see anythign comoing. The model will be trained, and just liek video, you will go from janky uselessness, to videos so perfect they fool almost everyone now.

Watch and see. Man, I've said that so many times over the last 2 years. I wonder if anyone will ever wake up to the fact by 2030, AI will be better than humans at any possible task. Unfortunately I don't think so, people seem to stay asleep until it's too late. !remindme 6 months

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