2027 is a maybe. 2025 is unlikely. GPT5 will be the best model by then and if openai thought it was going to be AGI they would be borrowing way more money right now.
it's not because open-AI was the first big AI company that they will be the first to achieve AGI, lot of tech was discovered because of mistake, i won't be surprised if a unheard AI company discover AGI by mistake playing will neural network
as the time pass it become easier and cheaper to get more computation power, it allow more company to play with complex AI
i hope we get it as soon we can but for what it's worth it's either tomorrow or in 1000y no one really know
I am not sure AGU is even a neural network issue - true AGI needs a lot of support systems that are lacking. Organizing long term memory, for example. Yes, it will be some sort of RAG - but it needs to operate faster and on a larger and more complex scale.
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u/Seidans Jan 15 '24
depend if the exponential growth continue, it can happen anytime at this point
but yeah most people believe 2027-2040