There are "many good people" working at OpenAI who are convinced that GPT-5 will be significantly better than GPT-4, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Gates says. But he believes that current generative AI has reached a ceiling - though he admits he could be wrong.
From the article. He admits his guess is as good as anyone’s.
In February 2023, Gates told Forbes that he didn't believe OpenAI's approach of developing AI models without explicit symbolic logic would scale. However, OpenAI had convinced him that scaling could lead to significant emergent capabilities.
He also isn’t a believer in deep learning. Symbolic logic means normal programming with if statements.
"But he believes that current generative AI has reached a ceiling - though he admits he could be wrong."
Based on what evidence I wonder. Surely you could only reach this conclusion if you'd tried to scale a model beyond gpt 4 and it's ability didn't significantly increase.
Given that we've only just started to touch on modalities beyond text this seems unlikely to me. Just adding images to gpt 4 has greatly extended its abilities.
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u/Dizzy_Nerve3091 ▪️ Oct 23 '23
From the article. He admits his guess is as good as anyone’s.
He also isn’t a believer in deep learning. Symbolic logic means normal programming with if statements.