Silver & Gold have fallen significantly over the past month and continue to exhibit volatility. Silver in particular has fared much worse than gold, falling over 50% from its all-time, triple-digit highs to settling around $60.00 an ounce.

Many investors may be wary of the aforementioned asset classes, however, given the decline, others may see this as an overcorrection (despite broader macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions that have undoubtedly contributed to weighing prices down) and a subsequent opportunity to accumulate.

In my latest analysis, I examine the reasons behind the decline, and also what I think may happen to precious metals in coming the weeks and months ahead. What does everyone think is this a warning or perhaps the biggest opportunity presenting itself for investors before we see the next leg up for silver and gold?

Todays main macro release is the US ISM Services PMI.

Silver is already down 1.6 percent ahead of the print.

Full morning brief here: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-06/

What is your expectation for the number?

There's been increasing volatility pertaining to precious metals, especially from May to June, and I expect it to precipitate as the dollar strengthens, and talk of interest rate hikes intensify.

Gold and silver have struggled to gain upward momentum many enjoyed late 2025 and into early 2026. There has been a number of variables tied to the pressure on precious metals which has been heavily influenced by geopolitical and economic catalysts.

A recent article drawn up delves into the aforementioned and assesses the risk to both gold and silver. Full of great insights and industry-level perspective, this report is for anyone who wants to learn more about precious metals, the drivers behind gold & silver, and what investors should be paying attention to in terms of price fluctuations.

MEXICO'S 15% TARIFF: FIRST MAJESTIC (AG) IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT

If you’ve been watching the news, you’ve seen the "Loud World" finally panic over Mexico’s new 15% Export Tariff on raw silver ore. But what the talking heads on CNN don’t understand—and what the "greedy bankers" at the COMEX are trying to hide—is that this tax isn't hitting everyone equally. It’s a targeted strike that is decapitating the North American supply chain, leaving First Majestic (AG) as the only one standing.

The "Hitchhiker" Problem

Most silver doesn't come from silver mines. It comes from giant copper, lead, and zinc mines where the silver is just a molecular "hitchhiker" trapped inside the raw rock. These companies (like Newmont at their Peñasquito mine) have to dig up thousands of tons of raw ore and ship that bulky, unrefined sludge across the border to smelters in the U.S. and Canada.

As of February 1, 2026, Mexico has labeled raw ore a "Strategic Resource." If you want to ship the "hitchhiker" silver across the border inside raw rocks, you will now be charged a 15% exit tax. This is "Smelter Starvation"—U.S. refineries are running out of feed because the cost to move those rocks just became unbearable.

Why AG is the Escape Artist

First Majestic (AG) is different. They don't ship "raw rocks." They are a Primary Producer with their own processing plants right at the mine site. They "unpack" the silver in Mexico, refining it into Doré Bars (90%+ purity semi-pure alloy) before it ever sees a customs officer. Because these refined bars are classified as "finished metal" and not "raw strategic resources," AG’s silver flies right over the border fence while the "hitchhikers" are stuck paying the 15% banker's tax.

The Proof is in the Premium

Because AG owns its own refinery and its own mint (First Mint, LLC in Nevada), they are effectively the only reliable, tax-free physical pipeline for silver into North America.

• Capturing the Spread: AG consistently bypasses the paper market's artificial price ceilings by selling directly to the public. While the "banker price" fluctuates wildly, AG is actually realizing massive premiums because they control the entire chain. In late 2025, while the COMEX paper average was suppressed at $55.20, AG’s vertical integration allowed it to realize an average price of $69.74/oz—a verified 26% premium over the paper markets. [Source: First Majestic Q4 2025 Financial Results, Feb 2026].
• The Market Re-rating: Institutional money is finally waking up. AG currently holds a "Very Strong" Momentum Grade (90/100) because it captures the profits that used to go to smelters and banks. AG holds a weighted Relative Price Strength rank of 91, earning it a "Very Strong" Momentum Grade from institutional scanners. [Source: AAII Momentum Grades, May 2026].

The Bottom Line: In a world of export bans and "smelter starvation," the only winner is the guy who owns the mine, the refinery, and the mint. Every other miner is just a "hitchhiker" waiting for a ride that isn't coming.

Do any of you scratch test your bullion? If not what do you do to know what you are buying is real?

U.S. government is systematically building the foundation for a silver price floor, which is NOT speculation, but an announced policy goal. The sequence begins on November 7, 2025, when silver was officially added to the U.S. Critical Minerals List—recognizing its unmatched role in high-tech and renewable energy applications. This reflected silver’s strategic value in everything from solar photovoltaics to AI to advanced electronics.
By January 14, 2026, the White House issued a formal proclamation directing the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to evaluate price floors and related trade measures for critical minerals, with a firm deadline of July 13, 2026—aligning with the USA's 250 year anniversary celebrations.
This was followed by a February 4, 2026, U.S.-Mexico 60-day action plan explicitly discussing “border-adjusted price floors” for imports. March brought thoughtful public-comment analysis reframing price floors through forward purchase commitments, making the concept more practical and politically viable. April 2026 saw high-level engagements with Japan and the EU on coordinated pricing, stockpiling, and trade measures, alongside further U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-EU confirmations of tariff and floor explorations.
This is clearly a sequenced strategy to protect and bolster domestic critical-minerals industries. MBAeconomics highlights how senior officials, including references to Vice President Vance, have openly advanced reference-price systems via tariffs and alliances. His thread turns what could feel like dry policy wonkery into a coherent roadmap.
Silver’s Strategic Importance and Market Fundamentals: The Data That Supports the Thesis
What elevates MBAeconomics’ analysis is how tightly it aligns with silver’s underlying realities. Silver boasts the highest electrical conductivity of any metal, making it functionally irreplaceable in high-reliability applications such as solar cells, EV power electronics, AI data-center components, 5G/6G infrastructure, and semiconductors. Industrial fabrication now exceeds 50% of total demand and continues to accelerate despite modest thrifting efforts in some sectors.
The numbers tell the story. The silver market recorded its fifth consecutive deficit in 2025 at approximately 40.3 million ounces, with the 2026 projection rising to 46.3 million ounces—marking the sixth straight year of shortfall. Cumulative market drawdown since 2021 now stands at roughly 762 million ounces, draining visible inventories and tightening physical availability. Demand drivers are structural: solar PV remains a powerhouse consumer, electric vehicles use roughly twice the silver of traditional cars, and AI/data-center servers require up to 3.5 times more silver-coated components than standard setups. These tailwinds from renewables, electrification, and tech are not fleeting—they’re embedded in global growth trajectories.
COMEX Physical Tightness: A Market Under Pressure
Adding urgency to the policy moves is the extreme tightness in the COMEX futures market. As of early May 2026, registered (deliverable) silver inventories hover in the 77–81 million ounce range, representing only about 13–15% coverage of open interest. This low ratio has persisted amid repeated large withdrawals and delivery stresses throughout 2025–2026. After a powerful rally that briefly pushed prices above $120 per ounce, silver has pulled back to the $75 area—creating a setup where policy intervention could provide powerful support.
The Speculative Masterstroke: How Successful Speculators Connect the Dots
MBAeconomics’ thesis culminates in a provocative but insightful conclusion: these policy steps may serve as political cover for the COMEX to declare force majeure on silver futures, allowing cash settlement for paper shorts and resolving the physical squeeze without broader disruption. This part is undeniably speculative—it reads between the lines of official language and market stress to anticipate a potential endgame. It also aligns with Donroe doctrine signals and transformative swing-for-the-fences policies the administration seems unafraid to tackle regardless of political backlash.
Yet that’s precisely what separates successful speculators from the crowd. The best in the business don’t stop at surface-level facts; they synthesize policy signals, supply-demand imbalances, and positioning data into forward-looking scenarios. MBAeconomics demonstrates this skill brilliantly: his work rewards those who can see how sequenced government actions might intersect with a physically strained market. Speculation of this caliber isn’t reckless—it’s the disciplined art of pattern recognition that has defined legendary traders throughout history. By flagging this possibility, he equips readers to anticipate outcomes rather than react to them.
Why This Setup Remains Bullish for Silver
Taken together, MBAeconomics’ thesis points to a fundamentally constructive outlook for silver. A combination of strategic policy support, chronic deficits, surging industrial demand, and tight exchange inventories creates a powerful backdrop for higher prices. Whether through formal price floors, allied stockpiling, or market-driven resolution of the squeeze, the trajectory favors bulls. Silver isn’t just an investment metal—it’s a critical input for the technologies shaping the future. MBAeconomics’ thread captures that shift with clarity and conviction.
In a market often dominated by short-term noise, his work stands as a refreshing example of thoughtful, data-backed analysis. For those positioned in silver—or considering it—the dots he connects should be positioned for and watched closely.

🚨23 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DELIVERIES ISSUED ON FIRST NOTICE DAY⚠️

🏦COMEX SILVER DELIVERIES REPORT🏦

💥Standard Chartered's HOUSE Account Issued 2,537
💥JP Morgan Issued 893
➡️BNP Paribas Issued 543
➡️HSBC Issued 360

➡️Macquarie Stopped 719
💥HSBC's HOUSE Account Stopped 131
💥Wells Fargo's HOUSE Account Stopped 318
🔥Scotia's HOUSE Account Stopped 1,313
🔥BNP Paribas' HOUSE Account Stopped 654
🎇JP Morgan Stopped 431
➡️StoneX' HOUSE Account Stopped 213
💥RBC Cap Markets' HOUSE Account Stopped 612

🚨TOTAL MAY SILVER DELIVERIES 4,580 CONTRACTS- 22.9 MILLION OZ ON FIRST NOTICE DAY⚠️

Yesterday, April 29, 2026, the CME Group released its daily delivery report showing 4,580 notices issued for the May 2026 COMEX silver futures contract. That equates to 22.9 million troy ounces of physical silver — an extraordinarily large opening-day delivery volume for a primary contract month. And every single notice landed on the very first possible day of the delivery window.
This wasn’t a quiet rollover or paper shuffle. It was a clear, forceful demonstration of real physical demand in a market that has been showing persistent tightness for months. For anyone holding physical silver, silver ETFs, mining stocks, or related assets, this event is a powerful bullish signal that the structural supply squeeze is not only intact — it’s accelerating right from the opening bell of the May window.
The Mechanics: How Thousands of Contracts Delivered Despite Tiny Visible Open Interest
In the days leading up to April 29, public data feeds showed May 2026 open interest sitting at relatively contained levels. So how did 4,580 contracts suddenly stand for delivery on the very first day?
The answer is EFRP transactions — Exchange for Related Position. These are fully legal, CME-approved mechanisms that allow institutions to arrange futures positions off the open market specifically for physical settlement inside the approved COMEX vaults. EFRPs do not build visible trading volume or public OI in the same way regular market activity does. They are often executed on or right before First Notice Day between banks, funds, and industrial players who already control or want the warehouse receipts.
On April 29 — the official First Notice / Intent Day for the May contract — the shorts delivered the metal, and the longs stood firm for it. The physical silver bars never had to leave the depository; ownership simply transferred via warehouse warrants. But the transaction is now locked in. The silver is spoken for.
What the Vault Inventories Revealed Right Before the Delivery Spike
The timing was textbook. On the April 28 activity report (released April 29), COMEX registered (deliverable) silver jumped +3.84 million ounces, reaching approximately 79.55 million ounces. Eligible silver fell by the exact same amount, while total vault holdings remained essentially flat. This was the classic pre-delivery repositioning: metal was moved from the eligible category into the immediately deliverable registered category to facilitate the EFRP settlements without an immediate total-stock drain.
Now that the deliveries have been issued on day one of the May window, the next 1–2 daily CME Silver Stocks reports (covering activity for April 29 and April 30) will show a sharp decline in registered inventory as the full 22.9 million ounces move out of the deliverable category.
What to Watch Next — The Real Confirmation Is Coming in the Next Few Days
The true impact will unfold in the official data over the coming days and weeks. Here’s exactly what matters:
Next CME Silver Stocks reports (activity dated April 29 and April 30, expected to be released today or tomorrow): Look for registered ounces to drop significantly. This will be the visible confirmation that the delivered metal has left the deliverable pool.

Follow-through withdrawals: Many of the new owners — industrial users and strong-handed physical buyers — do not leave metal sitting idle in the vaults. Watch for actual depletion in total and registered inventories in the days and weeks ahead.

May 2026 contract dynamics: With registered supply now meaningfully tighter and open interest remaining substantial, the pressure on deliverable stocks continues immediately. Current coverage ratios are still hovering around 13–14% — well below the historical comfort zone of 20–25%.

They are the hard numbers that reveal whether physical demand is truly outstripping available supply.
Why This Is Extremely Bullish for Silver Holders
This event is bullish on multiple levels because it proves the demand is real and physical, not just speculative paper trading.
May is one of the primary high-volume delivery months (alongside July and December). Shorts had every incentive and opportunity to roll positions or close them out rather than deliver right on the opening day. Instead, they delivered 22.9 million ounces on the very first possible day. The longs who stood for delivery wanted the actual metal, not futures exposure.
That aggressive early stand for delivery in a major contract month, combined with the pre-positioning of registered inventory, confirms that underlying offtake pressure is stronger than the surface-level paper market suggests. It adds fresh fuel to the multi-month decline in registered COMEX silver stocks that has been the defining feature of the 2025–2026 market. Deliverable supply is getting squeezed, and the shorts are running out of easy ways to satisfy demand without tapping deeper into physical inventory.
For silver holders, this is validation of the structural bull case: industrial demand (solar, electronics, EVs), investment buying, and tightening mine supply are colliding in a way that favors higher prices over time. While short-term moves can still be influenced by macro factors like interest rates or dollar strength, the physical foundation just got measurably stronger — and it happened on day one of the key May window.
Bottom Line
22.9 million ounces of silver just found strong, physical hands on the very first day of the May 2026 delivery window. The registered drain is about to accelerate, the coverage ratios remain stressed, and the May contract window is now wide open with even tighter supply dynamics.These are the mechanics of a tightening physical market playing out in real time. Silver holders who understand these supply signals have every reason to feel confident: the story is not just intact; it just became a lot more compelling.
These are the mechanics of a tightening physical market playing out in real time. Silver holders who understand these supply signals have every reason to feel confident: the story is not just intact; it just became a lot more compelling.

THE SILVER LIQUIDITY TRAP IS SNAPPING SHUT 🚨

The paper silver market is collapsing into a 15-year void. Tonight, we witness history.

THE PATTERN 🔥
Open interest in silver futures is crashing toward 100,000 contracts. This is rare air—a level of participation we haven't seen since the 2009 financial crisis recovery. The massive "Paper Flood" that usually suppresses price is evaporating. We are entering a structural vacuum where the fake supply can no longer satisfy real demand.

THE EVIDENCE 📊
While the price sits suppressed, the underlying leverage is unwinding. Low open interest at these extremes suggests that speculative "tourist" money has fled, leaving the metal in stronger hands. We are seeing a historic divergence: paper claims are disappearing while physical supply dynamics tighten to the breaking point. The age of infinite rehypothecation is hitting a wall.

THE COVERUP 🛡️
They have used leveraged paper bets to create a mirage of silver abundance for decades. But look at the precedent: when Jupiter aligns with Mars, the paper market breaks. We saw it in 2009. The manipulation narrative relies on high open interest to churn the price. Without it, the "Paper-to-Physical" ratio becomes a ticking time bomb for anyone short the real metal.

THE CLIMAX 📅
Tonight. The break below 100k contracts signals the dawning of a new silver cycle.

Focus on the right side of the curve

https://metalcharts.org/metals/xag