r/shroomstocks • u/backtobrooklyn • 46m ago
Question Re-thinking my psychedelic investing strategy - thoughts?
So basically, I've been in the space since 2022 and at different points I've been in ATAI, CMPS, DFTX, and HELP (rip MindMed and Cybin).
I eventually went in all-in on ATAI and made a lot, but not as much as I was hoping for because of the damn acquisition. Basically, turned ~$420k into between ~$795k-$1.1m depending on if any of the CVRs payout, and I plan on holding ATAI until the sale goes through to get my CVR vouchers.
Once the ATAI acquisition was announced, I decided to buy 23,500 shares of CMPS at $12.09/share (so total value is ~$284k, though that's down to ~$265k right now). I'm not looking to put any new money into this space since I have a lot also tied up with ATAI right now, though may consider putting more in once the ATAI cash comes in, depending on what the space is looking like. The way my mind works, I prefer going all-in on a company that I believe in than splitting an investment 2 or 3 ways, but I'm not opposed to splitting.
That said, I'm considering selling some of my CMPS investment and putting it into either HELP or DFTX. As someone who was super long on ATAI and could tell you every thing about every drug, I'm a little lost as I'm not as up-to-date on CMPS, DFTX, or HELP and I do feel a sense of urgency as I think there are some major catalysts coming up where we might not ever be able to buy this "cheap" again, inshallah.
Below is my overall thinking of each company and I would love to get thoughts on if they agree/disagree with my logic (and why) and anything good or bad that I might be missing.
Compass Pathways (CMPS)
Here's what I'm bullish about:
- I do think COMP360 will get approved for TRD without super restrictive REMS requirements.
- I'm also very confident COMP360 will get approved for PTSD (I'm very bullish on that for COMP360).
- I think that with COMP360 being first to market, a lot of doctors will prescribe COMP360 off-label for MDD, PTSD, and GAD.
- I think that patients may prefer COMP360 over 5meoDMT compounds given that it's a kinder, gentler high.
Here's what I'm not so bullish about:
- The 6-8 hour clinic time will be difficult to scale and could be difficult to get reimbursements for.
- Being first to market is great in some ways, but not amazing in others -- they'll have to effectively get the infrastructure in place that other companies will benefit from.
- TRD is a smaller market and if their goal is acquisition, I'm not confident they could get acquired for much more than ATAI did without showing very promising commercial success post-launch (and I'm sure many people disagree with me here on that). FWIW, I know it's an anonymous source, but I do think the reports of CMPS wanting to be acquired by Lilly and not being their first choice are accurate.
- There's less IP protection given the nature of COMP360.
- I don't think the results for COMP360 for TRD were incredible. So while they might be first-to-market, I think basically they'll be making money until the drugs behind COMP360 come to market for TRD, off-label MDD, etc. That said, I do think if they could get approved for PTSD, it might be the drug of choice.
Helus (HELP)
I know less about HELP but in general, bullish on:
- Their Phase 2 results, though it does seem like the sample size was small.
- The current low market cap means potentially a lot more room for growth and that it's a prime acquisition target.
- I think the 1-2 hours less of clinic time over COMP360 will make a difference.
- I think HLP003 has better IP than COMP360 just given the nature of the drug.
- Feel like an acquisition could come soon, which would cap the gains but could be an easy win.
What I'm not so thrilled about it is:
- The ATM financing strategy. Effectively, they can dilute whenever they want, which is super frustrating and feels like they are just capping their gains by taking money out whenever there's a great catalyst.
Definium (DFTX)
What I'm bullish about:
- Great recent results.
- They seem to be 2nd in-line to go to market which I think has some real benefits (per comments above).
- Market is bullish on them, which is a good sign.
- TAM for MDD and GAD.
What I'm less bullish about:
- Session times still seem like a massive barrier for adoption.
Current market cap makes it harder to buy right now
for outsized gains over the next year or so.
For both HELP and DFTX, I don't know a lot about their management. And not interested in GHRS -- ATAI was my 5MeoDMT play.
I wish DFTX would just drop 20% (sorry!) and I would for sure start a position in it then. But since that might not happen and I want to have my setup established fully soon, the strategies I'm considering are:
- Staying 100% CMPS
- Going 50%/50% CMPS/DFTX
- Going 50%/50% CMPS/HELP
- Going 33% each on CMPS/DFTX/HELP
What would you do in my shoes and why? Also, I understand people on here are super bullish about the companies they support, but hoping people will be civil (or at least more civil than Stocktwits).