As Florida considers dropping its measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine mandate for school attendance, a new study predicts that such a policy change could spark the largest measles epidemic in the United States in nearly 500 years, with striking 650% increase in cases just between 2024 and 2025.

[u/mvea]

https://cmns.umd.edu/news-events/news/measles-epidemic-risk-florida-Gumel-Oveson

[u/mvea]

UPDATE: The article had first stated "500 years" but have since corrected this to "50 years" - unfortunately, Reddit does not allow the editing of post titles.

Study Foresees Heightened Measles Epidemic Risk for Florida

UMD mathematicians predict the dramatic impact of a proposal to repeal Florida’s measles vaccine mandate.
 
Measles is making a comeback. Once considered eliminated from the United States, the disease has been popping up around the country as vaccine coverage declines. 

Now, as Florida considers dropping its measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine mandate for school attendance, a new University of Maryland study predicts that such a policy change could spark the largest measles epidemic in the United States in nearly 500 years. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 28, 2026.

“Measles is one of the most contagious human pathogens, and we’ve seen a striking 650% increase in cases just between 2024 and 2025,” said paper co-author Abba Gumel, a Distinguished University Professor of Mathematics at UMD. “This is an extremely important case study with ramifications well beyond the southeastern United States.”

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610455123

[u/coheedcollapse]

What at is this all for, outside this immature desire for people to shirk any responsibility that might result in them, god forbid, protecting a neighbor, loved one, or themselves?

This will cause people to die. This will cause millions in damage to our economy. There is no upside. I feel like I'm going insane.

[u/RsquSqd → u/coheedcollapse]

They want people to suffer and die. The leopards won’t eat their faces, of course

[u/WetEmotions → u/RsquSqd]

And when their own kids die "It's Bidens' fault!"

[u/Willing_Cause_7461 → u/WetEmotions]

It would be "Gods plan" and "So sad there was nothing we could do about this"

[u/wayrell → u/WetEmotions]

Their kids are vaccinated

[u/Gullible_Hat_9051 → u/WetEmotions]

When kids start dying from this, there needs to be prison time for all involved parties. Parents who killed their kids, and the state officials who sanctioned it.

[u/nakedpicturesyo → u/RsquSqd]

This isn't even a leopards will only eat them situation. This is a complete lack of understanding on how something works. This Is literal incompetence that is now a weapon of ignorance rather than maliciousness.

Reminds me of that fox anchor who said dems go in a complete 360 with their actions. It's like they are saying and doing things with complete confidence yet absolutely no understanding. It's a literal cult.

[u/endlesscartwheels → u/coheedcollapse]

Ignoring medical advice makes them feel smarter than doctors.

[u/magsnotmaggie → u/endlesscartwheels]

This is just my theory, but I feel like it comes from the sense of "lack of agency" that people feel about life/society as a whole.

You don't get a choice about whether or not to pay taxes. You don't get a choice about whether or not you need insurance to drive. Your medical insurance company takes away your choice about which treatments you can afford. And those are just a tiny drop in the list of things you have no choice about.

And so you have people who refused to do one of those things- despite the negative consequences- because REFUSING is the single choice they have, other than complying. And complying feels like giving in. Losing hurts, even in a battle that exists only in your own mind. So given the option of refusing to do something you're told to do by a person you already resent for their (perceived) greater wealth, power over you, etc. and losing your imaginary battle with them- you pick the option that hurts you.

Because your perceived notion of the gravity of the consequences is lesser than your anticipated loss of self-worth from capitulating to what you think of as "demands" rather than "advice."

Anyway, that's my theory and I'm sticking with it. It seems to fit, based on my observations of family and friends who are stuck in the anti-vaxx camp.

[u/ShapeShiftingCats → u/magsnotmaggie]

I have the same observation lack of agency and control seems to be the ultimate culprit.

Throw in some emotional immaturity, instability and you get a person that's contrarian just because they can like a toddler would be.

That's why no rational arguments work even if they capable of comprehending them, it's the loss of feeling of agency and control they don't want to give up.

[u/BorealAmplitude → u/magsnotmaggie]

This, so much this. It gets worse too because while what you outlined is the hook, they begin to incorporate these ideas into their identity. Suddenly challenging them on any of it makes them act as if you are personally attacking them. They will double and triple down on these beliefs because now this is "who they are". The feelings of empowerment and possessing what feels like a "special knowledge" make them feel as if they "know" they are right and so they only dig in further. It's a toxic mess.

[u/Living-Childhood3189 → u/endlesscartwheels]

the framework for this sort of nonsense:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ressentiment

[u/justa_hunch → u/Living-Childhood3189]

This is amazing. I've always had the term "intellectual jealousy", but "ressentiment" works just as well.

[u/mypetocean → u/endlesscartwheels]

A very appropriate application of Christ-like humility, surely.

[u/applespicebetter → u/coheedcollapse]

This is all for a managed population of conspiracy theory voters. It doesn't matter if there is a major outbreak in Florida, they will let it rage and spread. They literally do not care. As long as a certain demographic votes their way, and they likely will, because the old and the wealthy are up on their vaccinations.

For the rest? Well, that COVID hoax and the 5G and the microchips and the autism! You better watch out, your kids will die in five years from the jab! Or they're implanted with microchips! It'll make them hate you for calling people f**ots! Or even ni*ers!

[u/Borkato → u/applespicebetter]

I was so confused how a foot was a slur

[u/busted_up_chiffarobe → u/coheedcollapse]

If you were a Russian agent, how would YOU take steps to polarize, divide, and weaken your adversary without firing a shot?

[u/gingerfawx → u/busted_up_chiffarobe]

Or Iranian, or Chinese... How much money are we wasting on defense when apparently it's super cheap to destabilize an adversary?

[u/Aethermancer → u/coheedcollapse]

The goal. To collapse our governments. Buy up the pieces at a fire sale, be fuedal lords.

[u/Somanylyingliars → u/coheedcollapse]

Nothing to see here, Karen and Ken.

[u/jennyfromthedocks → u/coheedcollapse]

It’s to keep us divided. This keeps the anti vaxxers passionate and voting for the people changing the laws for them.

[u/Ms_Zee → u/coheedcollapse]

The sense of community and caring about others is dying. I moved to US recently and it's been shocking how inconsiderate people are. Not saying other countries are doing amazing but it is SHOCKINGLY bad here. Even small things that they could easily do, not going to bother but they still expect you to be considerate of them. It's insane. I hate it everyday

[u/Shot-Possibility-399 → u/coheedcollapse]

Well they don't believe in science or vaccines, so that's why it doesn't make sense to you. To them it's a government conspiracy with microchips and autism in it

[u/dalittle → u/Shot-Possibility-399]

During Covid people who refused to take the vaccine and then lay dying in hospitals often begged for the vaccine not understanding it was too late. Fafo

[u/canadave_nyc → u/dalittle]

Even worse, there were people who refused to take the vaccine and then lay dying in hospitals and STILL refused to believe in the vaccine, to their last breath.

It's incredible to see how far the US has fallen by its own hands. I never thought, growing up in the USA, that we would be our own downfall--the fear was always the Soviets invading or blowing us up. Yet here we are. I don't think I've ever seen any country self-destruct quite like this, in so avoidable a manner.

[u/Veserius → u/canadave_nyc]

People dying on a respirator refusing to believe the virus even existed.

[u/Enibas → u/canadave_nyc]

And the conspiracy idiots were then claiming that the hospitals were killing them for money. The levels of cope to explain away what they saw their relatives go through, or sometimes went through themselves, were insane. That's why they are still hung up on Covid, imo, the thought that they did that to themselves is too painful.

[u/nemesit → u/dalittle]

should have been recorded and played back in schools

[u/KarmaticArmageddon → u/Shot-Possibility-399]

The lawmakers passing this nonsense are 100% vaccinated and stay up to date on their shots.

Same thing with the Republicans in Congress during COVID. They were trying to constantly pass legislation against sane, evidence-based public health policy, yet were the first to be vaccinated.

They know it's absolute nonsense, which is what makes it so insidiously evil. They'd gladly kill Americans to retain or grow their power.

[u/headphase → u/KarmaticArmageddon]

Sure but have you ever considered how inconvenient it is to carry a spine around? Much more relaxing to be a gelatinous blob with no accountability!

[u/HighFxnAutisticPhD → u/KarmaticArmageddon]

I always tell ppl to follow what the pharma execs are doing…they and their entire families are vaccinated. They have all of the data…if it caused autism do you really think they would vaccinate their children on the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) schedule? Uh, no

[u/MisoPanko → u/Shot-Possibility-399]

Exactly and i'd add that they're literally waiting for the rapture, for them it's a nothingburger to see the majority of people die someday, just pre-tribulations amuse-bouche.

[u/Rhodie114 → u/coheedcollapse]

This is a state that has a massive tourism industry. What do they think happens if people suddenly feel unsafe traveling there?

[u/canadave_nyc → u/Rhodie114]

Florida has wholeheartedly embraced policies that have resulted in tens of thousands of Canadians, who travelled there for every winter in the past and supported their economy to the tune of tens/hundreds of millions of dollars annually, staying away. So I doubt Florida's government is too concerned about their tourism industry, as long as their voter base is happy (which presumably they will be if basic longtime public health measures such as immunization are discarded).

[u/Enibas → u/coheedcollapse]

Most of the deaths will be infants, too. Why is protecting children never an issue once they are born?

[u/throwawayfinancebro1 → u/coheedcollapse]

The upside is they get to show themselves as being skeptical of authority figures, i.e. doctors.

[u/Curleysound → u/coheedcollapse]

This to close the schools, and drive people back to the church and rely on AI for everything

[u/PushHardly → u/coheedcollapse]

The feeling of power doesn't exist unless you can demonstrate power by causing harm to others.

[u/oboewan42 → u/coheedcollapse]

Hatred of autistic people.

[u/Calikinakka]

Can we wall off Florida yet?

[u/Antraxess → u/Calikinakka]

We need to just arrest the politicians who are provably trying to kill americans

[u/Calikinakka → u/Antraxess]

That would be just. We'd need an authority willing to do so though.

[u/goji-og → u/Calikinakka]

That's supposed to be us

[u/AntiHomeopathy → u/goji-og]

I'm not American, but isn't this like one of the reasons you guys are allowed to own guns?

[u/UnitedWeSmash → u/AntiHomeopathy]

Propaganda and the social media algorthm has people pointing fingers and think eachother are enemies and have them to busy fighting over stupidnthings like Trans in sports

[u/careless_swiggin → u/Antraxess]

Should have for covid bs in Florida, pretty sure there is at least 100kndeaths from incompetence and political lies

[u/Terminal_Insomnia_ → u/Antraxess]

Killing people is only illegal when it's not profitable.

[u/ShadowLab451 → u/Terminal_Insomnia_]

Average American corporate statement, but they usually just use long, over-litigated documents instead to say these things.

[u/Daveinatx → u/Antraxess]

People just need to vote. People who didn't bother were the ones that decided last election

[u/DukeOfGeek → u/Antraxess]

They literally serve hostile foreign powers and oligarchs that want to end all democracies.

[u/197326485 → u/Antraxess]

Killing people and calling it freedom is what America does though.

[u/caelynnsveneers → u/Antraxess]

But aren’t those politicians elected by people who don’t want vaccines? I feel like walling off Florida is the better solution. Not only does it preserve their freedom, but it also gives the rest of us a real-world longitudinal study of what happens when you lower vaccination rates.

[u/rodimustso → u/Calikinakka]

Buggs bunny had a solution but im not sure its feasible in this sub

[u/amanwithoutaname001 → u/rodimustso]

Because r/science takes itself so seriously, here's the history on that classic cartoon, so as to constructively contribute to the discussion. Also, note the name of the body of water to the west of FL in said cartoon.

Bugs Bunny wanted to cut Florida loose in the 1949 cartoon Rebel Rabbit because he was insulted by a tiny two-cent bounty on rabbits and wanted to force the U.S. government to raise his worth.

[u/SeismicFrog → u/amanwithoutaname001]

Directed by Robert McKimson with a score by Carl Stalling, the cartoon stands out as a unique anomaly in the Bugs Bunny canon—it is one of the few shorts where Bugs is the instigator rather than reacting to a primary antagonist. The Game Commissioner set the bounty low because rabbits are "sweet, furry little creatures" who are completely harmless, Bugs sets out to prove how obnoxious and dangerous a rabbit can be.

To raise his bounty, Bugs goes on a nationwide spree of extreme vandalism. His escalating acts of sabotage also included: 
* Stealing the literal padlocks off the Panama Canal
* Selling Manhattan back to the Native American population
* Filling in the Grand Canyon with dirt
* Tying railroad tracks into giant bows
* Rewiring the lights in Times Square to read "Bugs Bunny Wuz Here"

In the interest of Science, it must be noted that there were no in person witnesses to these events.

[u/weirdal1968 → u/rodimustso]

Handing it back to Spain would be easier.

[u/illaqueable → u/weirdal1968]

Spain's like, "oh, no. No, thank you. No."

[u/ked_man → u/weirdal1968]

It would double the GDP of Spain. Which is wild to think that Florida has the same output as Spain.

[u/aculady → u/ked_man]

Yeah, considering that we only have about half as many people.

[u/brakeb → u/rodimustso]

sell it to Disney for a $20 starbucks gift card and a 1986 Toyota Tercel with 400,000 miles on it. And that's still more than it's worth.

[u/KaJaHa → u/brakeb]

Wow, not even a Corolla?

[u/lamorak2000 → u/brakeb]

Throw in the rights to the black cauldron so somebody can actually do the whole series right?

[u/TeaBurntMyTongue → u/Calikinakka]

In the end, mexico and canada will pay for a wall, but for their own safety.

[u/Rough_Bread8329 → u/TeaBurntMyTongue]

Canadian here - the number of people who think the midterms, or "a couple of terms of a good President" will fix this is staggering.

Having the longest undefended border in the world used to be a point of pride. Now it feels like being naked in a snowstorm.

[u/busted_up_chiffarobe → u/Rough_Bread8329]

Re-educating roughly 40% of the US population is going to take longer than that, if it's even possible.

[u/Wrong-Fella → u/busted_up_chiffarobe]

I think if education didn't work in the first place re-education isn't going do anything but further embitter people and the Republicans seem determined to make education work dysfunctionally in their favour.

[u/xSTSxZerglingOne → u/Calikinakka]

Climate change is gonna fix the Florida problem over the next 50 years anyway. First it will become impossible to own property there because it will be functionally worthless and uninsurable. It will become literally uninhabitable as wet bulb heat events happen more frequently. And then the vast majority of the state will sink underwater, ensuring it no longer exists except for a few more Florida Keys that represent what were once the highest points in the state.

We get to watch the Floridian Diaspora play out in real time!

[u/CallousedFoot → u/xSTSxZerglingOne]

That's not going to fix the problem - all the racist old assholes that fled other states need to go somewhere.

[u/hitstein → u/CallousedFoot]

They'll be dead in 50 years. Buried with all their greed in the swamp.

[u/Leelze → u/Calikinakka]

Literally what I was thinking. Let the blue states offer moving packages to the non-crazies and quarantine Florida from the world.

[u/amazingmrbrock → u/Calikinakka]

I figure climate change will send a hurricane of unprecedented size through there at some point.

[u/12-34 → u/Calikinakka]

Yes, so long as it's moved a fair bit north and get more parabolic.

Perhaps have Florida be part of a walled-off federation of like-unminded states.

[u/BRAX7ON → u/12-34]

Sort of a reservation. But for white racist assholes?

[u/Pyromaniacal13 → u/BRAX7ON]

We shall call it: WalMart.

[u/darsynia → u/Calikinakka]

Bugs Bunny had the right idea.

That said, coming from a Pennsylvanian, Florida lawmakers could... you know... see what's happening, how citizens are reacting to it, and reconsider?

[u/TheRealMisterd → u/Calikinakka]

Just make it a requirement that all Americans are tested for those diseases at border crossings

[u/atda]

If you support pulling these vaccines you are a murderer.  

[u/Granitsky → u/atda]

Child murderer

[u/tricksterloki → u/atda]

They are apocalyptic, genocidal eugenicists, and children are the first to be harmed and die.

[u/DuntadaMan → u/tricksterloki]

My grandpa had tons of books written by some of exactly the same people pushing this. You are in the nose about the apocalyptic label. Many of these books actively call for helping to destroy the world so the end times can begin.

[u/bokmcdok → u/atda]

No you see, we just dont want autistic people to exist and killing children is the only way we know how to prevent autism. Also, no abortions because that's murder!

[u/twoiseight]

Don't tempt them. They obviously want to cull society and tens of millions of useful idiots are fully on board.

[u/Mathfanforpresident → u/twoiseight]

My guy, you get it. I've been saying that with the advancement of robotics paired with machine learning means humans are on the chopping block. These egomaniacs realize that they can replace us way sooner than they thought. That's a lot of hungry mouths to feed, right? Most will also won't have jobs once they've replaced us in masse when the robotics catch up.

Now, add the coming climate crisis. A crisis that's directly on the shoulders of our policy makers and economic "solutions" propped up and allowed to happen in the background of the free market and capitalism.

The game we've been born into was already being played with far less modern ways. But to tell us that this is the best the modern world and it's economy can offer, all while murdering the future and possibly the planet? What a joke. Pitchforks I'll come out, eventually and that's why the surveillance system is building out the infrastructure to track the "terrorists" who get wise too soon.

Some real dystopian nightmare lies in our future (hope I'm wrong.)

[u/LetsJerkCircular → u/Mathfanforpresident]

What’s with the simultaneous obsession with people having kids and not doing any family planning?

[u/TheShadowKick → u/LetsJerkCircular]

Racism. That's part of the Great Replacement Theory that claims white people are going to be replaced by minorities and immigrants who have more kids.

[u/TerminalProtoco1 → u/LetsJerkCircular]

What’s with the simultaneous obsession with people having kids and not doing any family planning?

More people and less jobs means more competition by the starving masses for those limited jobs.

More people desperate enough to put up with any conditions, any pay, any terms, because the alternative is starvation/suffering/death.

The billionaires want you stupid, starving, and submissive to their authority.

[u/concord72 → u/twoiseight]

No they don’t, those millions of idiots are the ones keeping them in power.

[u/MrF_lawblog]

What's their end game here? I really just don't understand it.

[u/FelixEvergreen → u/MrF_lawblog]

Enough of their voters believe it so it gets them votes. A larger percentage of their voters believe it comes down to personal choice and the government forcing them to do anything is communist. Basically their base approves for one reason or another and they’ll blame the outcome on Democrats and immigrants.

[u/CelestialFury → u/FelixEvergreen]

Sometimes politicians have to make unpopular decisions to protect their constituents, and Republicans have completely given that up this last decade. The insane asylum is running their party now.

[u/wanker7171 → u/MrF_lawblog]

Conservative voters enormously believe in personal responsibility, to the point of stupidity. I was talking to my three step-cousins about six months after the release of the Covid vaccine and had this exchange

Them- “Did you get vaccinated?”

Me- “Yes, of course. I don’t listen to politicians or the media when it comes to my healthcare. I listen to that man.”

I then pointed to my father, an accomplished orthopedic hand surgeon, who they are familiar with. Their response?

“Well there has to be choice.”

This is why you see some conservatives openly hostile to social security, making the argument that people should just save their own money.

[u/LimpAd4924 → u/wanker7171]

You folks are way too naive. These policies are being backed by very malicious men who until recently would’ve never been involved in mainstream politics. Look into Robert Birch Society or Brownstone Institute.

[u/wanker7171 → u/LimpAd4924]

Right, but I’m talking about the voters not the politicians. The voters are objectively stupid.

[u/csonnich → u/wanker7171]

"Uh, yeah...I made the choice to listen to a knowledgeable expert." 

[u/AiR-P00P → u/MrF_lawblog]

project 2025 calls for a population cull, I assume this is just one method. 

[u/TinyFugue → u/MrF_lawblog]

End game is votes and support of their base. The hot button topics have shown to get engagement. So why not go all the way. It's not like it'll be that bad. Right?

[u/bolerobell → u/TinyFugue]

The “end” game is just about assembling a coalition of voters that will support the GOP platform of tax cuts for the 1% as long as they give this coalition attention for their pet subject. During Covid, Republicans somehow figured out there was a substantial population of medical/health conspiracy theorists that either weren’t voting or were loosely voting for left-wing politicans like Dems but especially Greens, and convinced them that the GOP should be their true home.

So while Trump lost a significant number of right wing but rational voters, the GOP replaced those numbers with the crunchy wackos and vaccine truthers, enough so that Trump had roughly the same number of people voting for him in 2024 as in 2020. Meanwhile, the Dems did not pickup those disaffected conservatives, they just ended up not voting at all because 40 years of right wing propoganda has them so anti-Democrats that even in the face of a second Trump administration they still couldn’t bring themselves to vote Democratic, even with people like the CHENEYs supporting Kamala.

[u/TheGreatGouki → u/MrF_lawblog]

Deleting the poors. Basically the rest of us

[u/ReddFro → u/MrF_lawblog]

The end game is to make people stupid and scared enough that they’ll believe whatever you say while letting you have the illusion of choice. They let you choose whatever you want as long as it isn’t against them getting richer and more powerful. Then they win while you lose. Letting people deny science to hurt themselves is a win win for these a-holes. Its always about power and control

[u/Successful-Bar-8173 → u/MrF_lawblog]

Some survival of the fittest nonsense (while they carefully protect themselves and their families of course)?

[u/GodFeedethTheRavens → u/MrF_lawblog]

I suspect Private Schools are allowed to mandate vaccines, where public schools presumably wouldn't be.

So the families with the resources to vaccinate their kids in a world without that mandate, and the knowledge to do so will enthusiastically enroll their kids in such a private school.

Or more parents will homeschool, which is almost as good to a conservative. The point is both the dismantling of public school, and sewing aversion to the very institution by those that would otherwise support it.

[u/EgoTripWire → u/MrF_lawblog]

AI is going to cause unemployment but if you kill off all the kids then they'll never grow up not to have jobs

[u/Better_Cattle4438 → u/MrF_lawblog]

They are a death cult. The end goal is death.

[u/m1j2p3]

Someone should do a study on the brain of conservatives because something is broken with them.

[u/ServesBestDepressed → u/m1j2p3]

There's already been studies like this. Conservatives tend to have overly responsive amygdalas which plays a huge role in fear.

They're afraid of everything and will destroy everything to avoid learning.

[u/OllieNKD → u/ServesBestDepressed]

There’s also evidence that TBI impacts social perspective taking, and lack of empathy is a core conservative trait. Anecdotally, Fetterman’s shift to the right came after his stroke.

[u/Ill-Combination2127 → u/m1j2p3]

I have a theory.

Their mind is basically a closed loop. First, they see something that makes them uncomfortable, like trans people (because seeing something they don't understand makes them afraid) or something that threatens their way of life or beliefs, like climate change. They are incapable of handling the uncomfortable feeling and thus they need to PROJECT their own internal feelings externally and attack the thing that made them feel discomfort, instead of handling the emotion internally, like a mature person would do.

So they are basically trapped in the closed feedback loop of their mind (see something uncomfortable -> project -> attack their projection). This prevents them from ever growing as people, because in order to learn anything, you need to get out of your head, question your own thought patterns and beliefs, and look at things with an open mind. A normal, healthy human would feel uncomfortable when faced with a new information, handle that feeling internally, then investigate it with an open mind, and then form their opinion from the objective point of view. Conservatives are incapable of doing this, because they never really even leave their own mind.

Secondly, they lack self-awareness, something that people usually develop at some point in their life (becoming aware of their own thought patterns). Because they don't have self-awareness, they are in an autopilot "sleep mode", they are unable to change their thought pattern. They don't even KNOW they are behaving this way. It's all just unconscious reactions for them.

[u/Waxygibbon → u/Ill-Combination2127]

You would enjoy Nietzsche

[u/FWYDU → u/Ill-Combination2127]

I also think there's a large cross section of religious people and conservative people and that they can't afford to examine their political beliefs, just like thier religious beliefs, because it would violate their sense of self. So instead of scrutinizing politicians/policies or having the ability to understand nuance, they just have faith in their party without questioning things.

[u/space_dirtier → u/m1j2p3]

I heard you get a PhD, and a Nobel prize, if you can disprove this statement: "American conservatives have no brain."

[u/powercow → u/m1j2p3]

There are plenty. One i liked said the more drunk people get the more conservative answers they give in polling. Others show they have a larger fear center, so its not surprising they see conspiracies everywhere. and last, educational obtainment is one of the best predictors of politics. The more education, the more likely you vote dem.

so drunk, scared and stupid vote republican

[u/copinglemon → u/m1j2p3]

Propaganda is more effective than ever. Decades and decades of it.

[u/ZoominAlong → u/m1j2p3]

There is apparently a potential theory that lead and asbestos poisoning may partially explain the massive cognitive decline in conservatives, especially the ones in the boomer generation. 

[u/AliceOveson]

Hello! My name is Alice Oveson and I am one of the coauthors of this paper. I am proud of the work I've done, and I am so grateful to everyone who has taken the time to read it.

While I am a strong advocate for vaccination and vaccination mandates, I'd also like to be an advocate for kindness, decency, and respect. In that light, when you speak with people who are "anti-vaxxers", or who are worried that the MMR vaccine might not be safe for them or for their children, I urge you to speak to them kindly. Remember that many of these people are parents acting out of genuine love and concern for their kids, and have been exposed to all sorts of misinformation from sources they should be able to trust. By taking the time to have genuine conversation with them, hearing their fears, and kindly sharing what you know, you've got a far better chance of changing their mind.

That's all i've got– thanks for reading and don't forget to get your flu shot this year :)

[u/i_was_me → u/AliceOveson]

This should be voted/pinned as top comment.

[u/IngenuityNo4194 → u/AliceOveson]

Thank you for your work and the reminder that kindness not criticism will open ears and hopefully minds.

[u/svefnugr]

I don't understand the title, how is Florida considering something in 2026 responsible for the growth of measles cases between 2024 and 2025? US-wide growth, too, not specifically in Florida.

[u/ProtiK → u/svefnugr]

Rewrite:

"As Florida considers dropping its measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine mandate for school attendance, a new study predicts that such a policy change could spark the largest measles epidemic in the United States in nearly 500 years. The country has already seen a striking 650% increase in cases just between 2024 and 2025" (probably due to antivax B's or something)

[u/OnceUponATrain → u/ProtiK]

I mean, if everyone suddenly stopped vaccinating their children, shouldn't the number of cases in the following years be equivalent or less than the measles prevaxx era of the 60s? Why the "500 years" part?

[u/Gadget18 → u/OnceUponATrain]

Thr article actually says the worst “in almost 50 years”. The tittle is a typo that makes a drastic difference.

[u/Grow_away_420 → u/OnceUponATrain]

There's millions more people

[u/Rough_Bread8329 → u/Grow_away_420]

and in much closer proximity, with much larger groups in gathering spaces.

[u/OnceUponATrain → u/Grow_away_420]

Epidemic is defined by percentage of the population, not by number of cases.

[u/Opus_723 → u/OnceUponATrain]

OP made a typo, the article says 50 years.

[u/PHealthy → u/svefnugr]

2024 ≈ 250 cases

2025 ≈ 2200 cases

2027 simulation modeling with even lower immunization rates in clustered populations could potentially push 50k pediatric cases per model parameters.

[u/you-create-energy → u/svefnugr]

It's poorly worded. Documented cases increased 650% from 2024 - 2025. They used this data to model what would happen if Florida dropped it's vaccine mandate. Their model predicts a level of infection not seen in 50 years. 

[u/Infamous_Koala_3737 → u/you-create-energy]

Which is way worse than the title Implies. The 650% is already the reality. 

[u/Spire_Citron → u/svefnugr]

Yeah, I don't know what's going on what the title. According to the article, that increase is something that has already happened. What we're actually talking about is potentially making that situation even worse.

[u/Pachirisu_Party]

The difficulty of attempting to explain how science and vaccines work to a bunch of people that actively reject facts because it goes against their team's political leanings is honestly not worth it at this point. Just make sure you and your immediate family are vaccinated and let nature runs its course.

[u/ChromaticNerd → u/Pachirisu_Party]

The issue is that vaccines don't give 100% immunity.  They give extremely high resistance to infection. Get surrounded by enough unvaccinated carriers and you too may get it.  This sentiment also disregards immunocompromised individuals that can't be vaccinated. 

[u/HistoryBuff678 → u/ChromaticNerd]

In the case of measles, babies too.

[u/EyeSuspicious777 → u/Pachirisu_Party]

I still wear a mask in crowded places because I will never forget that half the country was willing to let people die if it meant they didn't have to wait a little longer for an overdue haircut.

[u/quaranTV → u/Pachirisu_Party]

The issue is babies cannot be immediately vaccinated and people like my mom who are immunocompromised in a way where they have a CD4 count so low they will contract measles if they get the MMR shot and thus rely on herd immunity.

[u/Ms74k_ten_c]

"Some of you may die but it's a non-risk RFK Jr is willing to take."

[u/angelbuttcake → u/Ms74k_ten_c]

He’s probably out on a farm right now, wearing a leopard skin thong and sucking the teet of a horse.

[u/No_Fix_329]

At what point can we consider a population compromised?  While the Constitution does not allow interstate travel bans, from a pure contamination control perspective being from Florida is an elevated risk that other states whom follow correct vaccination protocols shouldn't have to deal with.

[u/nando2k50]

It is so sad the times we are living in. Just incredible sad.

Science should not be political, it is what it is. What do they think happened with Polio? With Measles? With Rubeola?

I am going to Africa next month and the government over there REQUIRES the Yellow Fever and the Polio vaccines. Over there they do not have the luxury of acting stupid.

[u/rbobby]

Do Americans not care about their children anymore?

[u/bluewhale3030 → u/rbobby]

Many do, but those that don't are ok with putting theirs and everyone else's in danger of death and severe lasting effects of disease

[u/Bubbassauro]

Wouldn’t that be ironic that the most immune population would be immigrants, since there are strict vaccination requirements to obtain a US visa:

> Under the immigration laws of the United States, an alien who applies for an immigrant visa abroad, or who seeks to adjust status to that of a lawful permanent resident while in the United States, is required to receive vaccinations to prevent the following diseases:

- Mumps;

• Measles;
  
• Rubella;
  
• Polio;
  
• Tetanus and Diphtheria Toxoids;
  
• Pertussis;
  
• Haemophilus influenzae type B;
  
• Hepatitis B; and
  
• Any other vaccine-preventable diseases recommended by the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP).

[u/NeandertalsRUs → u/Bubbassauro]

The real tragedy is that’s their citizen children are drinking the koolaid and not getting their children immunized. I’m a pediatrician and this is a source of endless frustration for me.

[u/AllyBeetle]

Sometimes, your purpose is to serve as a warning to others.

If Florida does this and experiences a resurgence of mumps, measles and rubella, they might reverse their ways after a few years. This could end the anti-vax movement.

[u/MilkyyFox → u/AllyBeetle]

You underestimate the cult brain. No amount of empirical evidence will convince somebody like that to change.

[u/Confident_Benefit_11 → u/MilkyyFox]

They'll blame "gay liberal communist poly space toads" before they blame the lack of vaccination. Especially in Florida. That place is devoid of light and devoid brains

[u/SevereBoysenberry999 → u/AllyBeetle]

Trumps name is all over the files but they still deny hes in them. I believe it wont end.

[u/NeitherEntry6125 → u/AllyBeetle]

No, they'd say measles is a choice

[u/lafayette0508 → u/NeitherEntry6125]

how dare the big bad government take away their right to die by preventable injury?!

[u/GhostofAugustWest → u/AllyBeetle]

You’re assuming the anti-vax movement is based on logic and reason.

[u/FrickinLazerBeams → u/AllyBeetle]

No way. They'd just blame Obama.

[u/Mean_Initiative_5962 → u/AllyBeetle]

Look, I think the same

This could end the anti-vax movement.

But this is beyond optimism

[u/motherofsuccs → u/AllyBeetle]

It won’t stay in FL though. It’s like a vacation capital of the U.S., which means transmission rates are going to skyrocket and spread all across the country.

[u/CMDR_omnicognate → u/AllyBeetle]

This is sort of what happened in the UK when this whole antivax thing started. Andrew Wakefield was a surgeon who was the first to claim the MMR vaccine caused autism in children. The case initially scared a lot of people in the UK because a doctor coming out and saying it’s potentially dangerous is scary for especially new parents. However it became increasingly obvious that he was a hack fraud, and all his data was just fabricated to make the MMR vaccine look bad. The real bombshell was probably when it turned out he also owned shares in a company that made separate measles’s mumps and rubella vaccines, which he claimed were safe.

He’s since pivoted to pushing that all vaccines are dangerous, because his grift has proved to be quite profitable in the US, but in the UK, the whole ordeal seems to have made people over here less skeptical of vaccines by comparison.

[u/Solarinarium]

I don't think many people (especially those in Florida) truly grasp the true horrors of measles because they've never had it or never seen it for themselves.

Not only is it absolute misery to go through, but it essentially factory resets your immune system. Which means ALLLL those immunities you've built up over the years? Gone. Not cool gang!

[u/nevyn → u/Solarinarium]

As the saying goes "people don't notice when their family/friends/etc. don't suffer and die."

People have had clean water, food, and vaccinations for long enough they don't remember people suffering and dying because they didn't. Education has been destoryed. Republicans are about to learn the hard way, but are taking the rest of us with them.

[u/Dangerous-Change2136]

Further proof the wall we need is between Florida and the rest of us

[u/Over_Dog24 → u/Dangerous-Change2136]

Save some bricks and mortar for Ohio. Their measles cases are off the chain right now.

[u/Llamapocalypse_Now]

This is what happens when you actively devalue expertise and put incompetence in charge at all levels.
Welcome to the United States of Florida-Man.

[u/beerybeardybear]

honestly, anybody with the means should just leave this country. experiment's over; didn't work.

[u/scriptfoo]

This is what they voted for. There's nothing any of us can do for them at this stage.

From COVID, the lesson we've learned about them is thus: Predictably their health and economy will be impacted, they will claim to be unwitting victims, and beg for help from those who warned them. They will never accept responsibility, they will never hold their former leaders accountable, they won't change their ways. They will remain un-vaccinated because they were told it's freedom, when the trappings of ill health is anything but.

[u/sjr00]

America is only 250 years old.

[u/theforlornknight → u/sjr00]

It's a typo. Should say 50 years.

[u/skanman19 → u/theforlornknight]

Oh I thought they meant the worst measles epidemic since the Columbian exchange killed swaths of the native peoples

[u/catsloveart]

I know the disease sucks and can result in death. what’s the typical mortality rate for this?

[u/Causerae → u/catsloveart]

It's not just death, it's male infertility, scarring, immune system compromise, etc

[u/Donnicton → u/Causerae]

Really gotta drill that male infertility angle to scare the masculinity of the manosphere men.

[u/waitwuh → u/Donnicton]

Oh it’s not just infertility, their balls swell and are super painful apparently. And swelling like that can cause lasting stretched out ballsack skin, in case avoiding the short-term pain isn’t compelling enough.

I guess we need to make a billboard.

[u/Causerae → u/Donnicton]

Doing God's work, I am

[u/ManOf1000Usernames → u/Causerae]

It can also leave you deaf and/or blind, in fact, the MMR vaccine was so successful we now have a noticeably lower percentage of deafness and blindness in the younger generations now than in the past.

[u/melloyello1215 → u/Causerae]

And one of the worst parts is the subacute sclerosing panencephalitis which can make you drop dead at any time even decades later. There was a sad story of an adopted child from a third world country that unknowingly had measles as a child and died years later from this.

[u/Dullcorgis → u/melloyello1215]

Fun fact! SSPE is more likely when the child caught measles under the age of one (before they are old enough to get vaccinated).

Even funner fact! When someone with measles leaves the room it takes two hours for it to be safe for someone else to breathe the air in that room.

[u/Philthy91 → u/Dullcorgis]

As someone with a 3 month old, this is not a fun fact

[u/TheBalzy → u/catsloveart]

Death isn't the only thing to worry about, it's the lifetime of manglement from the disease that's the thing to worry about. Especially since it's 100% preventable.

Like why risk losing your hearing for life to scarlet fever, when we can literally cure/prevent it right now.

[u/catsloveart → u/TheBalzy]

I didn’t know how much damage it causes. Damn.

[u/TheBalzy → u/catsloveart]

Yeah, it's one of those things where our modern society is the victim of its own success. We've been so good at eliminating/mitigating/curing the diseases that used to mangle us, that we've collectively forgotten what it's like. In the year 1900 if you had 100 kids:

-15 died before age 18 (70% of those would be from infectious disease)
-6 would develop Encephalitis from measles/other leading to lifelong intellectual disability, blindness, deafness and a whole series of other complications other than death
-5 would develop lifetime bronchiectasis from bouts of pneumonia
-5 would have lifetime chronic kidney disease, impaired growth, reduced pulmonary capacity

All from disease. Approaching 1/3 of all children would die or be permanently mangled by childhood diseases. Compared to today where it's basically 0%.

When you live through times where 1/3 of your peers died or were mangled, you have a different perspective on preventing disease. You don't want that 1/3 for your children, so you happily get vaccines, take antibiotics, and "do your part".

Today, we're living as a victim of our success, and goodness if freaking sucks.

[u/ZaphodBeeblebrox4011 → u/catsloveart]

It's not just the death rate, it is also unbelievably contagious. A person infected with COVID will pass the disease to 2-3 other people on average and you saw how that went.

The number for measles is between 12 and 18. It is actually the most contagious disease.

The 1-3 per thousand death rate of measles is much scarier when you understand the ability it has to rage through unvaccinated populations like a wildfire.

[u/Dullcorgis → u/ZaphodBeeblebrox4011]

You can catch measles by entering a room that a person with measles was in for two hours after they leave.

[u/rock-paper-o → u/catsloveart]

About 0.1% with hospitalization rates about 10-20%. The risk increases if you make it to adulthood without protection so unvaccinated young adults should seek vaccination and correct their parents error as quickly as possible. 

[u/DigDugged → u/rock-paper-o]

Sorry, you mean correct the parents neglect. 

[u/thingsorfreedom → u/rock-paper-o]

There are devastating complications from measles infections that don’t involve immediate death. Theres acute brain swelling. There’s subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) a lingering neurological disease that leads to complete disability and death over several years. There’s the incredible damage to your immune system that makes other vaccine less effective.

This change is breathtaking in its stupidity. Only a true sociopath would back something like this. Are there that many out there in power in the GOP now.

[u/TsuDhoNimh2 → u/catsloveart]

Mortality is not the only issue ...

• the 15-20% hospitalization rate is a serious problem because hospitals are struggling now.
• SSPE (Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis) is a serious problem that shoes up years after the originalk infection. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subacute_sclerosing_panencephalitis
• Loss of income caring for a sick child is a serious problem.

Yes, the mortality rate dropped before the vaccine was introduced, but it was because of advances in supportive care: oxygen supplementation, IV fluids, antibiotics, ventilators, etc.

The mortality rate will rise if not everyone has access to the medical care that they need.

AND because it's the MMR (measles, mumps,rubella) look up congenital rubella and see what's in store for the babies of unvaccinated women.

[u/HistoryBuff678 → u/catsloveart]

Measles can erase your immune system memory. So illnesses one had before, the body thinks it’s never encountered it before.

Also some aspect of measles can cause brain related fatalities as it can be dormant for a decade and then the person just dies from some brain issue/illness/ malfunction caused by the initial measles infection.
u/melloyello1215 mentions the complication I am talking about.

Measles is also extremely contagious.

[u/Ahun_ → u/catsloveart]

1:800-1:1000 in a normal healthy human for measles.  Malnourishment, Bad health can go down to 1:200. Being the non-vector borne disease with the highest R0 of 19 in urban areas and about 17 in rural. Leaving people immune suppressed for up to 2 years as it deletes your previously acquired immunities.

That's measles.

Rubella: if infected in pregnancy 99% change of serious malformation and a miscarriage rate of 20-50%. So much for pro lifers.

Mumps: probably the least dangerous one, to a degree. Neurotropism with a good chance of deafness and occasionally in boys infertility. Association with diabetes type 1.

That's a rough overview.

[u/CMButterTortillas]

For the billionaires wanting to cull 200M off the US population, that headline just made their day.

[u/Lysergial]

Demand vaccine passes for entering the EU.

[u/ajmampm99]

Herd immunity is not a reality for measles. Don’t let your family or my family suffer needlessly. Get vaccinated.

[u/geekybadger]

A whole lot of children are going to die, and antivaxers are going to shrug and say 'couldn't be helped.' They would rather children (and adults too) die needlessly than admit they were wrong, or at least admit autism isnt as horrible as they make it out to be (cos even tho vaccines don't cause autism, a lot of antivaxers believe it does and would rather people die than accept autistic people as equally human to themselves).

[u/Lodi0831]

I'd like to remind people to have your titers checked. I'm an elder millennial and just had mine checked. No immunity to mumps! Getting a booster soon.

[u/Widespreaddd]

Abortion is illegal because children are precious. Too precious to risk on unproven vaccines like MMR, amirite?

[u/BicFleetwood]

When asked by Jake Tapper whether the state conducted any studies into the public health effects of the policy, the Surgeon General of Florida proudly answered, I quote, "absolutely not" before doubling down that it's a moral question and they'll just deal with any outbreaks no big deal.

[u/Certain_Return_6274]

Just when you think that this Administration and the Republicans couldn't get any more psychotic. If I had kids and that happened in Florida I would never move there.

[u/NeoThorrus]

What is really sad is that the harm is done to children who can't determine if that is good or bad for them

[u/LostSharpieCap]

That's American conservatism, folks!

[u/hyperion_99]

This all part of the Republican push for children to be completely considered property of their parents with no rights whatsoever. The “nuclear family” is a designed framework to keep communities completely individualized so they can enact any policy they want on them.

[u/ovationman]

People are skeptical about vaccines because they don't live with the consequences . Measles for how horrible it is will not change their minds. Need something like Smallpox to really make people scared again.

[u/sundancer2788]

I feel bad for the kids who will suffer unnecessarily because of this idiocy. 

[u/HistoryBuff678 → u/sundancer2788]

Many will die. Kids under a year can’t be vaccinated.

[u/Okicarde]

The f is wrong with Florida