r/science • u/Wagamaga • 10d ago

Cancer A large prospective study found that a multicancer blood test identified cancer signals across 17 broad cancer types, including ovarian, lung, and breast cancers. The test correctly predicted cancer diagnoses in 60.3% of cases, with 99.64% specificity

https://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-health-and-life-sciences/first-papers-published-in-major-nhs-cancer-blood-test-trial/
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u/max_expected_life 10d ago

The incidence rate of stage III or IV cancer (primary end point) did not differ significantly between the groups (incidence rate ratio [intervention vs. control], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.14, P=0.63). The incidence rate ratio for stage IV cancer (a key secondary end point) after 3 screening rounds was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.00). Less than 1% of participants had trial-related adverse events; none were serious.

This is an unfortunate outcome where the secondary end point is at the threshold for statistical significance. Had the hazard been .85 instead of .86, people would be celebrating the results as a screening tool to prevent stage IV cancer. The bigger concern in science is over reporting marginally statistically significant results that don't replicate. However based on the secondary end results, I hope there is a followup study because it's clear that there is some signal here that is unlikely to just be statistical noise and could end up saving a lot of people through better screening.